RADIO
Monday follows up Christmas weekend with a very promising seven game slate. Nearly every team playing is generally healthy aside from the Brooklyn Nets taking on the Clippers, still missing Kevin Durant, and a game between the Mavericks and Trail Blazers without both Luka Doncic and C.J. McCollum. Dallas vs. Portland might not be a potential playoff matchup, but it's a game Damian Lillard has the chance to dominate in every category.
On the flip side, the Suns vs. Grizzlies has future playoff series written all over it and Ja Morant's return comes at a perfect time. The Grizzlies only lost two games of the 12 games they played without him and have the chance to widen the gap between the top four teams in the West and the rest. However, after losing three of their last four games, they'll need every bit of Morant's offense against Phoenix and they're lucky he only had to play 29 minutes in a blowout victory over the Kings last night.
MonkeyKnifeFight.com is always ahead of the curve with their canceling of contests amid postponements, so don't worry about wasting money on a player or game that might not play. As always, you can find me in the NBA Chat Room or @HalfCourtJester on Twitter with any questions, especially since lines and players are subject to change throughout the day.
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HOU @ CHA
Kelly Oubre Jr. (CHA) MORE 21.5 Points - Christian Wood (HOU) MORE 18.5 Points
This was changed to Kelly Oubre Jr. at the last second, but the LaMelo Ball (+21.5 PTS) analysis is being left up just in case.
LaMelo Ball is the only player in the league that is elite when it comes to fantasy production, but is averaging under 20 points per game. Looking at the most recent players to score at least 22 points against the Rockets, you'll notice most of them are triple-double threat, inside-out, hybrid-guards. If Lonzo Ball put up 19 points against this offense, even if Gordon Hayward or Terry Rozier has a solid shooting night, LaMelo Ball is putting up 20 points based solely on usage and how easy it'll be for him to score at the rim.
Until both Miles Bridges and P.J. Washington entered COVID protocol, the Hornets frontcourt was looking like it had added the toughness it needed to help Mason Plumlee anchor the defense. Now that it'll just be Plumlee, Jalen McDaniels, Hayward, and Kelly Oubre as a frontcourt rotation, Christian Wood's work is all but cut out for him. Also looking at Kelly Oubre now, Bridges and Washington being out should be enough of a hit to Charlotte's offensethat they won't have a choice but try to get Oubre going early.
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CHI @ ATL
DeMar DeRozan (CHI) MORE 25.5 Points - Cam Reddish (ATL) MORE 18.5 Points
There's not a defense you can put in place to stop DeMar DeRozan regardless, but at least players like Clint Capela and John Collins can make it tough around the rim. Lately, DeRozan has been able to do most his work from the mid-range and over his previous three games, after missing the three contests before that, he's combined for 88 points on 52 attempts. DeRozan is playing well and facing a defense that cannot specifically stop him no matter who they try to matchup with.
For Cam Reddish, playing without Trae Young has opened up a ton of shot attempts and Reddish specifically is not letting them go to waste. He's put up at least 13 shots in his last three games and after scoring 34 points against the Magic last week, he's more than deserving of the offense. As long as he's commanding this type of usage, it's hard not to like the over when Trae Young isn't playing.
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UTA @ SAS
Jordan Clarkson (UTA) MORE 19.5 Points - Derrick White (SAS) LESS 18.5 Points
The Jazz are well-equipped to handle injuries and much of that is thanks to the consistency of their bench offense, mainly Jordan Clarkson. Losing Donovan Mitchell for a game or two isn't the worst situation when you know it gives other more than capable scorers the confidence that they now have to lead the team. Clarkson might not get bumped into the starting lineup, but his offense will be on full display playing against the Spurs backcourt that will be missing Dejounte Murray until early January.
That leads to the second half of this wager which basically boils down to Derrick White needing to lead this team in scoring to hit the over. Being part of the Spurs offense doesn't mean you sacrifice offense, but on nights where you aren't hitting, there is no way you are forcing it with Gregg Popovich directing you from the sideline, and that's what makes betting on Spurs playing slightly frustrating. If hockey-assists were a recorded stat, the Spurs would lead the league. Bad jokes aside, with Keldon Johnson playing as well as he is, a 19-point over for a player that would need to shoot fairly well to even get the usage needed to hit that over, seems too bold for the bother.
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MEM @ PHX
Devin Booker (PHX) MORE 23.5 Points - Ja Morant (MEM) MORE 21.5 Points
You won't win many games your best player only scores 13 points on 19 shots, but the Suns still managed to put up a very tough fight against another championship-contending team. The potential bounce back from that loss is coming against a Grizzlies squad that played yesterday, but didn't necessarily require a full workload from their starters. So Memphis should be somewhat rested, but even a couple days of rest won't prepare you for Chris Paul's offense and a potentially angry Devin Booker.
With Ja Morant having no restrictions, he's rarely held back anyway, especially when the competition and defense is going to be rigid. These teams might not be emptying the playbook in a regular season game two days after Christmas, but these are two squads at the top of the conference with possible seeding implications. The Suns are still well-ahead but a win from the Grizzlies on the back of Morant would decrease the space between the top four teams in the West and would be huge for the team's morale after some questionable losses last week.
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