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There are 10 games Monday and it's no surprise that the Hawks-Minnesota matchup possesses the highest point total for tonight. A multitude of young players all playing well has the potential to benefit prop bettors and solidify DFS lineups, but most importantly, the fans are going to appreciate whatever skills Trae Young, D'Angelo Russell or Anthony Edwards put on display in Minnesota.
Outside of Clint Capela, there isn't going to be much defense that game, although the rest of the slate won't be lacking in that department. Eight of the 20 teams playing rank in the top ten for defensive rating over the past seven games, with six of those teams, excluding the Pacers and 76ers, winning at least four of their last seven games.
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WAS @ IND
Bradley Beal (WAS) MORE 22.5 Points - Malcolm Brogdon (IND) MORE 19.5 Points
What seemed like just passive offense has turned into a dramatic downward spiral for Bradley Beal. With Spencer Dinwiddie out, 23 points is a necessity for Beal, but the problem is that even 20 points isn't a guarantee for him right now. He's not taking a ton of shots and even if he does try to carry the team that way, he's not converting at a rate worthy of the attempts. The Wizards haven't had a quality win since they beat the Heat over two weeks ago and it's hard to say that Beal ISN'T the catalyst that really fuels this offense. When he doesn't play well, the Wizards do not win. Washington is on the second night of a back-to-back against a fresh Pacers defense and it's, once again, not looking like a good night for Beal, but Dinwiddie not playing adds an x-factor that makes Beal the ONLY source of offense tonight.
Small sample sizes are tough to base predictions off of, but Malcolm Brogdon had a great stat line the first time these two teams played back in October, however, the stats were inflated by overtime and Beal not playing that game. Considering the Washington point guard will be either Aaron Holiday or Raul Neto, there's no reason for Brogdon to be held under 20 points, even if he is forced to play more defense on Beal this time around.
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OKC @ DET
Jerami Grant (DET) MORE 22.5 Points - Luguentz Dort (OKC) MORE 16.5 Points
Sadly, Jerami Grant's point total continues to rise every night, so good for him, bad for us. He's a more than capable scorer on a young team that struggles to keep up and it's the main reason Grant is unable to hit his overs on most nights. He can usually find a way to score regardless of how well he is shooting, and even bad nights turn into well-rounded performances that can be anchored by his defense. He's shown the ability to play up to the competition on multiple occasions, but everyone has a bad night shooting here and there. Since the Thunder defense is basically one player, Jerami Grant should be able to get to the rim as easy as he can shoot over the Oklahoma City defenders.
Luguentz Dort, was part of the worst beatdowns in NBA history. He scored 15 points on eight shots, which is promising, but then you realize he also took eight free throw attempts. The Grizzlies defense isn't great, but they are significantly more equipped than this Pistons team. That doesn't mean the Thunder have much chance here, since Detroit plays well against good teams and have caught some awful breaks this season. Oklahoma City has little availability in terms of offense so tonight will be whatever falls from Dort and Ty Jerome.
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ATL @ MIN
Trae Young (ATL) MORE 24.5 Points - Anthony Edwards (MIN) LESS 23.5 Points
Trae Young scored a season-high of 43 points last year against the Timberwolves. He's also on a seven-game streak of scoring 25 points or more against some quality defenses. The streak shouldn't be snapped unless he just has a bad night. Young is playing way too well to just look at this game and say, "yeah, with his near 40% usage rate and incredible scoring streak, THIS is the game he flops," when truth be told, he hasn't really flopped all season...
Now this is much more of a challenge for someone like Anthony Edwards, who can't rely on his shooting to get him through most nights. There have been many occasions where he's able to provide spacing and needs to be regarded as a shooter, but that doesn't happen unless the situation calls for it as the game progresses. Teams will usually let Edwards shoot until he establishes a rhythm or groove, but against stingy defenses, he tends to force the scoring issue from the inside-out. That doesn't mean he will get the better of Capela or the Hawks defense tonight, or in this specific case score 24 points, but there's an excellent chance we'll see more than a few challenges at the rim anyway.
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DEN @ CHI
Nikola Jokic (DEN) MORE 27.5 Points - DeMar DeRozan (CHI) MORE 25.5 Points
Nikola Jokic has been the best player in the league each night, and returning from a four-game absence didn't change that. He will face Nikola Vucevic Monday night, and both players know how little space they can allow each other before getting punished. The Bulls defense is good in theory, but individually they will have a better chance try to keep up with the opposing frontcourt pressure rather than trying to fix the growing leak in their figurative ceiling, A.K.A their lack of a power forward or any frontcourt defensive backbone.
On the opposite end, DeMar DeRozan will likely draw the attention of Aaron Gordon, the Nuggets best defender. The athleticism adds for competition, but DeRozan turns good defense into a post-move clinic. His ability to use his body and use defenders assets against them makes it impossible for any sole defender to keep him from either getting to his spots or scoring at the rim. Gordon has help, but not that much help since sagging off of other Bulls players means leaving Vuceviv, Lonzo Ball, or worst case scenario for the Nuggets defense, Zach LaVine the ability to create off of disruption.
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