RADIO
There are 10 games on Monday's slate, and with so many repeats of games, try not to get sucked into the blackhole that is past performances. In many cases, instances like Bam Adebayo versus the Nets, the matchup is just there and Brooklyn has no player ready to take on that specific, heavily-defensive, frontcourt task. In those games, there is no amount of gameplanning that can stop a skilled player from scoring on offense.
In other cases like Gordon Hayward versus the Magic, Orlando does have someone they can designate to guard Hayward every second he is on the court to stop him from scoring 39 points, again. We know great offense is better than a good defense, and with Hayward being guarded by the Magic's most versatile defender, he can score 18-20 points and still have a good game despite carrying the offense the night before.
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CHA @ ORL
Nikola Vucevic (ORL) MORE 22.5 Points - Gordon Hayward (CHA) MORE 22.5 Points
Not only did these teams play last night, but both are in the bottom third when it comes to pace and defensive rating over the last five games. The points will be scarce in this game since possessions will be limited, but that doesn't mean there won't be at least two, 20-point scorers in this game, similar to how it played out Sunday. The Magic and Hornets have predictable offenses and can only rely on a few steady sources each night.
Even with the Hornets limiting opposing centers in their most recent games, this is the same Nikola Vucevic that hasn't scored under 20 points against Charlotte in over two seasons, not to mention Evan Fournier, arguably, helps with spacing. Orlando's defense has been safely giving up points to opposing small forwards and that was proven again by Gordon Hayward. He tears apart this defense and even with a target on his back, he's taken 45 shot attempts in the last two games. For what it's worth, Hayward has only scored over 23 in one of the three back-to-back games he's played in this season.
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MIA @ BKN
Kevin Durant (BKN) MORE 29.5 Points - Bam Adebayo (MIA) MORE 25.5 Points
Did anyone really think the addition of another superstar was going to pull from Kevin Durant's production? He's built a career around being able to adapt to other players, while still posting ridiculous numbers and high-scoring games. Durant is averaging over 30 points throughout the last week and the only Nets superstar who is really struggling in the box score is James Harden, who is still skimming at triple-doubles despite adjusting to a new team.
For the Heat, Bam Adebayo set a season-high for free throws in Saturdays loss to Brooklyn, and with a rematch he gets the chance at another high-scoring night against a very passive frontcourt. Brooklyn's best rim protector is Kevin Durant and he cannot waste his energy dealing with Adebayo, so even with no free throws, Adebayo's floor is still unusually high for someone who scores closer to 20 points and fills the rest of the stat sheet.
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LAL @ CLE
LeBron James (LAL) LESS 24.5 Points - Collin Sexton (CLE) MORE 22.5
Taking the under on LeBron James is always a tough bet, only because of how easily it is for him to score against any defense. Truthfully he does have lower-scoring nights against teams that can afford to designate a player to specifically defend James, but some nights are just his nights. Since the Cavaliers are playing well and Collin Sexton is a big part of that, his side of the bet doesn't concern me as much as assuming James will be a pass-only, facilitator against a former team.
Since Larry Nance Jr. does have the skill and length to make things tough for James, although it won't contain him, it gives Cleveland the best chance at forcing anyone else to beat them. Andre Drummond roaming the paint doesn't really add to the defense and Anthony Davis is going to have all the freedom he needs to get to his spots.
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DEN @ DAL
Luka Doncic (DAL) LESS 29.5 Points - Nikola Jokic (DEN) MORE 25.5
Luka Doncic will be playing in his fourth game since Wednesday, so while the fatigue factor may attribute to a lower-scoring game on his end, that won't mean it's a sub-30-point game. Ok, yes it does, but banking on Doncic energy levels seems like the bait-iest bait to ever be baited and it is. Doncic is the Mavericks offense and when it's his night, there is no stopping him in any aspect. Even though the stats say Doncic is experiencing a 5% decrease in usage over the last week, his usage in the last two games has gone up drastically, 40% versus San Antonio and 39% versus Houston.
The Nuggets and Nikola Jokic have been thriving, winning four of their last five games, and now that Michael Porter Jr. returned, their upside continues to rise even more. Porter Jr. doesn't offer much in terms of two-way basketaball, but his contributions on the offensive end make it easier for players like Gary Harris, Will Barton, and even Jamal Murray to play with more composure. The added spacing helps them get to their spots more frequently, early in the game, so even with points being taken away, ultimately adding Porter Jr. just adds upside to the Nuggets as a whole, his style makes it so he doesn't pull production from anyone that wasn't already struggling.
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SAS @ NOP
Zion Williamson (NOP) LESS 24.5 Points - DeMar DeRozan (SAS) MORE 20.5
With the Pelicans not winning many games, it's promising to see Zion Williamson posting huge numbers regardless of outcome. Opposing defenses can out-rebound Williamson, but they can't really have someone to be their Zion-stopper. Since Williamson is basically scoring at-will against some of the top defenses in the league, the Pelicans competitiveness is what determines his point-scoring upside each night. His 19 points in the loss against Minnesota is the lowest points he's scored all of 2021.
For DeMar DeRozan, his last game is arguably his scariest to gauge. He played the Washington Wizards and despite winning handily, DeRozan posted nine points and eight assists. Not promising for someone who may have taken the over that game, but it does set DeRozan up to go off the following game, in this case against the Pelicans porous defense.
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