RADIO
It’s a busy night in the NBA, with 11 games on the schedule, which means lots of props to play on Monkey Knife Fight.
The Dallas Mavericks are expected to have Luka Doncic back in the lineup after missing seven games with an ankle injury.
While there are some other competitive games on the schedule, the late matchup between the Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets has the top two teams in the Western Conference tipping off.
Featured Promo: For this week only, take 50% off any full-season or yearly Premium Pass on the site! Just enter discount code THANKS when checking out. Thanks for being a reader, and Happy Holidays! Sign Up Now!Here are some angles to keep in mind when making Wednesday’s basketball prop picks on Monkey Knife Fight.
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STAR SHOOTOUT - EARLY GAMES
MORE OR LESS
Damian Lillard LESS THAN 32.5 POINTS – As incredible as Lillard has been, he’s averaging 26.3 points per game on the road, which makes it a long way to get to 33. He’s scored 33 or more in six of his past 12 road contests and the Grizzlies are below average defensively but that’s still a big number to cover.
Bradley Beal LESS THAN 31.5 POINTS – Although he’s averaging 35.7 points per game in the past 10 overall, Beal is scoring 28.9 points per game on the road and, aside from a recent two-week scoring eruption, his scoring typically falls below 30 per game. Even against the Knicks, counting on 32 or more should not be assumed.
Trae Young MORE THAN 30.5 POINTS – The Cavaliers stink and Young can fill it up, yet he’s averaging 28.1 points per game on the road and has been held under 30 points in six of his past eight road contests. It’s a tough call but it feels okay to take the side against Cleveland’s poor defense.
Karl-Anthony Towns LESS THAN 27.5 POINTS – While the Hornets aren’t particularly good, they do have an average defensive record, allowing 110.2 points per game and Towns has been held to 23 or fewer points in four straight games.
Pascal Siakam MORE THAN 23.5 POINTS – Putting up 23.1 points per game on the road, Siakam goes up against a Nets squad that has adequate defense. In the paste 10 games overall, Siakam has scored 24 or more five times, so it’s a relatively close call but we’ll nudge towards the over because he’s getting a lot of looks – at least 20 field goal attempts in three straight games.
RAPID FIRE
Hassan Whiteside +1.5 rebounds vs. Andre Drummond – Whiteside is putting up 12.6 rebounds per game on the road but his numbers are improving recently, with 14.5 per game in the past 15 games overall. That should put him in the 13-14 rebound range against a Grizzlies team that sits near league average in opposition rebounding. Drummond is averaging 15.8 rebounds per game on the season and grabbed 14 in his Cavaliers debut. He has a higher ceiling but his impact with a new team is maybe a little less certain.
Davis Bertans +0.5 three-pointers vs. D’Angelo Russell – Both players are averaging 3.6 three-pointers per game but Bertans seems the steadier of the two, with Russell showing more peaks and valleys when it comes to making three-pointers. The edge for Bertans is that he faces a Knicks team that is allowing 13.3 three-pointers per game, the third-highest rate in the league.
STAR SHOOTOUT - LATE GAMES
MORE OR LESS
Devin Booker LESS THAN 28.5 POINTS – Oddly, Booker is scoring far less at home (24.9 ppg, compared to 28.0 ppg on the road) and has been held under 29 points in four of the past five games. He does get the benefit of going against a Warriors team that was subpar even before trading away a bunch of their players (including the aforementioned Russell) at the deadline.
Luka Doncic MORE THAN 27.5 POINTS – Coming back from an ankle injury to face a Sacramento Kings team that is average defensively, the Mavericks star is averaging 28.6 points per game at home. That’s enough to move the needle towards the over.
Anthony Davis LESS THAN 25.5 POINTS – Averaging 25.6 points per game on the road, Davis goes into Denver to face a Nuggets team that is allowing 106.4 points per game, the best defensive record in the Western Conference.
Andrew Wiggins LESS THAN 23.5 POINTS – The narrative is that Wiggins is going to be re-born with the Warriors and that may turn out to be true but he’s averaged 21.0 points per game in his first two games with Golden State so 24 on the road in Phoenix is a little more than should be expected.
Kelly Oubre LESS THAN 21.5 POINTS – Oubre has had a bit of a scoring surge which makes this number a little compelling but has still been held to 21 or fewer points in eight of his past 12 games.
RAPID FIRE
Buddy Hield -0.5 three-pointers vs. Duncan Robinson – On the road, Hield is dropping four threes per game, which makes it difficult for Robinson, who is averaging 3.1 threes per game on the road.
