NextGen Stats - Running Back Breakdowns and Takeaways

4 years ago by Antonio Losada

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Folks, it's time to put on your battle armor and get ready for war. We've completed 11 weeks and I can see the playoffs on the horizon already. And let me tell you something: nobody is pushing me out of them. If you too have a chance at making the playoffs at this point in the season, that means you have been able to dominate for more than two-thirds of it. No team has been as good as yours. No fantasy GM has come close to you and your decision-making. Only one thing can beat you to the finish line: yourself. But hey, don't lose any bit of hope. I'm here for another week to show you how the league is looking entering the home stretch of the season, so you can make the final pinpoint decisions of the year and bring that championship home.

To gain the biggest edge in your fantasy football league, it's necessary to understand how to apply the advanced statistics being used in sports nowadays. Back in the day, it was all about wins and losses, passing yards, and touchdowns scored. It's not that those stats are now worthless, they just don't offer enough information to savvy analysts. While football is still in its infancy compared to baseball in terms of analytics, the evolution the sport has seen lately in those terms is notable.

Each week, I'll be tackling NFL's Next Gen Stats, bringing you data from the previous week's games with notable takeaways you should consider when assessing fantasy players for the upcoming week. In case you're new to the series, or Next Gen Stats altogether, I recommend you read our NGS-primer. Now, let's get to the data!

Editor's Note: Our incredible team of writers received five total writing awards and 13 award nominations by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association, tops in the industry! Congrats to all the award winners and nominees including Best NFL Series, MLB Series, NBA Writer, PGA Writer and Player Notes writer of the year. Be sure to follow their analysis, rankings and advice all year long, and win big with RotoBaller! Read More!

Week 11 - The Running Game Is Alive!

One of the most important concepts to consider when analyzing players are Air Yards. The metrics around it are key to know who is really over-performing or under-performing among receivers and passers, but it doesn't have much to do with rushers. For this last group, which mostly features on the ground, we can look at time, speed, and efficiency metrics.

Today, I'll present each of the stats from the NFL's advanced metrics site, its correlation with rushers-fantasy points, and a list of leaders and trailers in each category along with some notes and takeaways on both the players' and the metrics' impact on fantasy football as a whole.

For the 2020 season, the NFL has introduced the concepts of:

Expected Rushing Yards (xRY; How many rushing yards is a ball-carrier expected to gain on a given carry based on the relative location, speed and direction of blockers and defenders?)
Rushing Yards Over Expectation (RYOE; The difference between actual rushing yards and expected rushing yards on an individual play or series of plays)
Rush Pct Over Expected (ROE%; The percentage of runs where a ball-carrier gained more yards than expected)

I will only focus on fantasy production as pure rushers, eliminating the pass-catching element from their game. This will concentrate entirely on their total rushing yardage and rushing touchdowns in terms of the fantasy points per game numbers shown (labeled ruFP/G). I will also include an extra column, "ruFP/15Att", which is accounts for the fantasy points a rusher is getting per 15 rushing attempts, which would be considered an RB1 workload on average and allows us to know how different players in different roles would be doing if given the same opportunities.

So let's dive in. Note: The cutoff is set at 55 rushing attempts.

Efficiency

Correlation with Rushing Fantasy Points: negative-38%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

Remember, the most "efficient" a rusher is, the least amount of yards he "wastes" going headfirst toward the opposition goal line in a straight route. The lower the number, the more north/south the runner.
The last time we checked, three weeks ago, the relationship between efficiency and ruFP/G was at a reasonable negative-22%. It has gone up wildly during the past three weeks, though, sitting at a great negative-38% now and showing a way stronger correlation.
Looking at it from an EFF-perspective, here are the results:
- Top-10 EFF players (lowest values): 8.1 ruFP/G, and 10.5 ruFP/15att
- Bottom-10 EFF players (higher values): 6.2 ruFP/G, and 8.4 ruFP/15att
And from a ruFP/G perspective:
- Top-10 ruFP/G players: 3.83 EFF on average
- Bottom-10 ruFP/G players: 4.17 EFF on average
As can be easily seen, the inverse correlation definitely exists, making the most efficient rushers (those with lower EFF marks) the most valuable in fantasy football by a lot.
Just look at the difference in a pro-rated FP per 15 ruAtt. The least efficient rushers would average 8.4 ruFP/15att, while the most efficient rushers are already averaging 8.1 ruFP/G no matter their workloads.

No player has been able to keep his efficiency below the 3.0 mark since Week 2, the first time we checked the stats. And it is not that there is anyone getting even close to that value. Miles Sanders had a 3.02 mark in Week 8, but nobody is below 3.25 (Ronald Jones II) through Week 11.
All 14 most-efficient rushers are averaging more than 8.0 fantasy points per 15att. Their actual ruFP/G vary between 3.8 (Chase Edmonds) and 14.4 (Nick Chubb) due to their usage, but on a similar workload, all of them would thrive.
That's not the case among the 11 least-efficient rushers: almost half of them (five of 11) are averaging below 8.0 FP per 15att with only two (Joe Mixon and Todd Gurley II) above 10.0 actual ruFP/G on the season.

Staying in the "usage" part of the leaderboards, and linking it with EFF, there are 27 rushers with at least 100 carries through Week 11. Those 27 RBs are averaging a 3.95 EFF mark. The other 26 qualified RBs (<100 carries) are a little bit more efficient at 3.91 EFF.
Among the 27 players with at least 100 carries, only 11 are at 10.0+ ruFP/G. Those have an average 3.92 EFF.
The remaining 16 players (100+ attempts and <10.0 ruFP/G) have an average 3.97 EFF, being less efficient than those in the first group, who are much better fantasy players.

Percentage of Stacked Boxes Faced

Correlation with Rushing Fantasy Points: 9%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

The correlation between stacked boxes and fantasy points has never been overly big, and it is more descriptive than anything else. It was positive in Week 8 after starting the season on the negative side of the spectrum, and it has remained there through Week 11, even losing strength in its correlation with ruFP/G (it's gone from 14% to a measly 9%).
Don't throw away stacked boxes completely given that there normally is an almost non-existent relationship, but keep in mind that it is heavily related to the role a player has on his offense and to what teams expect from him.

Damien Harris has rushed the ball a healthy 96 times through W11, and he lives in a different world all by himself. Harris has faced stacked boxes in 44.8% of his carries, more than 7 percentage points about no. 2 Latavius Murray.
The distance between Harris and Murray is almost the same as the distance between Murray and no. 9 Dalvin Cook (30.4%).
Only four players are facing stacked boxes in more than 35 percent of their carries. No wonder, they're all pure rushers with very limited abilities on pass-catching duties.
None of the four 35%+ stacked-box players are averaging even 10 ruFP/G, and even on a pro-rated 15-attempt basis, they'd still fall short topping at 9.9 fantasy points.

Boston Scott and La'Mical Perine are in the bottom three when it comes to the percentage of stacked boxes they have faced, but they barely qualify in terms of carries. Devin Singletary, though, is at just 3% while having 99 rushing attempts already.
Singletary and Moss, both Bills' rushers, have faced stacked boxes less than 16% of the time. That's nothing compared to the Eagles and the Jets running backs: Sanders and Scott are at 1.8% and 7.0%, while Perine and Gore are at 5.5% and 8.9%. And I'm afraid that has nothing to do with those players being multi-faceted, threatening attackers...

The top fantasy scorers in ruFP/G (10.0+ on average) have faced stacked boxes in a range between 7% and 34% of their carries, with an average of 19%. Remember there was almost no correlation between stacked boxes and fantasy points? There you have it.
Oh, and the same happens at the other end. Up to 15 rushers are averaging <5.0 ruFP/G, and they have faced stacked boxes in a range between 3% and 37% of their carries, with an average of 17.5%. Very similar marks, yet very different fantasy outcomes.

Assuming a 15-attempt-prorated ruFP/G for everyone, the 25 RBs averaging 10+ ruFP/15att would be facing stacked boxes in 17.9 percent of their carries.
On the contrary, the 29 averaging fewer than 10 ruFP/15att would be facing stacked boxes 16.4 percent of their carries. Close, but not there, showing how they are a little worse at their job.
On smaller group-samples, this shows even more. Eight rushers would be at 13+ ruFP/15Att. All of them would be facing stacked boxes at a 14.6%+ rate with the exception of Miles Sanders (4.2), although his pass-catching prowess heavily influences that.
As expected, only one of six players with averages below 7.0 ruFP/15att (Joshua Kelly) is facing more than 11.1% stacked boxes (20.7% of his carries).

Average Time Behind The Line Of Scrimmage

Correlation with Rushing Fantasy Points: 24%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

While the last time we checked, three weeks ago, this relationship was almost non-existent at a paltry 6%, it has gone all the way up through W11 sitting now at a much stronger 24%.
The slower (or more patient) a player is to cross the LOS, the better it goes for him and his fantasy GMs.
The difference in ruFP/G between the top-15 players in TLOS (lower values) and the bottom-15 (higher TLOS) amounts to a measly 1.9 fantasy points, though. That's why the correlation is at 24%, which is high enough not to outright discard it, but still weak all things considered.

There were five rushers taking 3.0+ seconds to cross the LOS back in Week 8, and through Week 11 that same number still holds true. Nick Chubb, though, is in a league of his own (we're still talking about fractions of a second, don't get crazy about it).
Those five "slowest" rushers are all averaging 8.8+ ruFP/15att, although only Chubb has a heavy usage in his offense allowing him to reach double-digit ruFP/G (14.4).
At the other end, only Wany Gallman is taking fewer than 2.5 seconds to cross the LOS among the 53 qualified rushers through W11. Once more, to prove the correlation between TLOS and fantasy points is not superb, Gallman is averaging 12.5 ruFP/15att, pretty much the same as Nick Chubb (the slowest TLOS-rusher).

Players with 10.0+ ruFP/G: average 2.85-second TLOS
Players with <5.0 ruFP/G: average 2.77-second TLOS
Players with 10.0+ ruFP/15att: average 2.84-second TLOS
Players with <5.0 ruFP/15att: average 2.77-second TLOS

ATT & YDS & Y/A & TD

Correlation with Rushing Fantasy Points: 7% / 27% / 58% / 69%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

Kudos to Nick Chubb for being the only player still averaging 6.0+ Y/A through 11 weeks of play. He's missed time, yes, but his 94 carries are healthy enough to consider this a feat among qualified rushers.
Dalvin Cook's 5.3 Y/A might actually be much more impressive, though. He's sustaining that mark while having rushed the rock more than twice Chubb's times (201 to 94).
The only other player with 200+ rushing attempts, Derrick Henry (229) is a much lower 4.7 Y/A so far this season.
That being said, though, Henry's edge in carries is helping him beat Cook in total rushing yards through Week 11 with a 10-yard advantage. Both running backs are the only ones above 1,000 yards already, and it is going to be hard for everyone to catch them, with no other rusher above 762 yards (James Robinson) at this moment.
Henry's been losing distance to Cook slowly but surely, though. Back in W8, he was 123 yards above Cook, but that difference is reduced to 10 through W11. Could we be witnessing the ascension of a new King?

On the negative side of things, Duke Johnson has been absolutely disastrous at rushing the ball. The Texans tailback is the only player with 55+ rushing attempts averaging fewer than 3.0 Y/A.
It doesn't mean the likes of Joshua Kelley, Snell, or Gio Bernard have not been pretty bad themselves, all with averages below 3.5 Y/A.
Kelley's case is rather worrying, though. He has been given 102 chances of carrying the ball, but he has wasted them with gusto, racking up just 311 yards in those totes. Kelley is the only player with fewer than 335 yards on 80+ rushing attempts.
No wonder, Kelley is averaging a putrid 3.7 ruFP/G and not even bumping up his attempts to 15 per game would help him: he's averaging just 5.5 ruFP/15att... the lowest mark among all qualified rushers.

While the rushing award based on yards is still up for grabs between Cook and Henry, it is going to be very hard to find any other player not named Cook getting the TD-gold. Cook has 13 (!) touchdowns to his name through W11, and no other rusher has even reached 10.
That doesn't mean Cook is the most efficient scorer, though. Cook is scoring a touchdown every 15 carries he takes. That is tied for third-best below Wayne Gallman (one TD every 14 attempts) and league-leading Christian McCaffrey (every 12). Cook has rushed the ball 201 times compared to Gallman's 69 and CMC's 59, though.
As incredible as it sounds, all qualified rushers (min. 55 carries) have scored at least a touchdown this season!
That's cool, as it allows us to know that David Montgomery is currently the least-efficient scorer with 1 TD in 131 carries, besting Frank Gore (123), and Joshua Kelly (102)--those three are the only players with just 1 TD in 100+ carries.

YDS & RYOE & Y/A & RYOE/A & ROE%

Correlation with Rushing Fantasy Points: 27% / 49% / 58% / 49% / 33%

Leaders and Trailers:

Leaderboard Notes:

Starting this year, the NFL has introduced the concept of Rushing Yards Over Expectation. Basically, it comes down to the extra yards a rusher gained (or lost) in a given play given the context of that play (down, distance, etc...).
The RYOE metric indicates how many extra yards the rusher gained/lost on his carries over/under those he actually rushed for. Ex: YDS = 100, RYOE = 10, then the rusher was expected to rush for 90 yards, but overperformed that mark by 10 (RYOE) thus getting to 100.
The RYOE/A metric indicates the average extra yards gained/lost per rushing attempt. Ex: Y/A = 0.5, RYOE/A = -1.5, then the rusher was expected to rush for 2.0 Y/A but underperformed that mark by -1.5 (RYOE) thus getting 0.5 Y/A.
The ROE% metric indicates the percentage of rushing attempts the rusher exceeded the expected yards (gained more yards than expected). Ex: ATT = 10, ROE% = 50.0, then the rusher gained more yards than expected in 5 of 10 (50.0%) of his carries.

If we go by the raw, counting stats, there is nobody even remotely close to King Cook--sorry Henry. Dalvin has rushed for 250 yards above expectations already, which is to say 1.3 more yards per carry than expected.
On a way smaller dose of carries, though, Nick Chubb is the clear leader in RYOE at 2.1. Not only is Chubb the only rusher posting more than 1.3 yards per attempt over expectations, he's also edging no. 2 Cook by the same difference as Cook is from no. 8 Kareem Hunt, Gus Edwards, and James Conner (all tied at 0.5 RYOE).
Only five running backs are underperforming to more than -0.5 RYOE. And only our old friend Duke Johnson is currently averaging a full yard below expectation with a -1.0 RYOE mark. Ugh.

It is always a pleasure when real-life data aligns so well with fantasy performances:
- Underperforming rushers (<0.0 RYOE) are averaging 6.6 ruFP/G, and 8.8 ruFP/15att.
- Rushers performing to the expectations (0.0 RYOE) are averaging 6.7 ruFP/G, and 9.0 ruFP/15att.
- Overperforming rushers (0.1+ RYOE) are averaging 8.5 ruFP/G, and 10.3 ruFP/15att.

Although Nick Chubb is getting the most yards over expectations per attempt (2.1), he's not racking up yards over expectations at the highest rate.
That would be Chris Carson, who is beating expectations in 53 percent of his carries. The only other player above 50% is Phillip Lindsay (51.4 percent of his carries have gone for more yards than expected).
Among players with 100+ carries through W11, Cook (47%) ranks first in ROE%, followed by Darrell Henderson Jr. (45%), Ronald Jones II, and Josh Jacobs (the latter two at 44.4%).
Only four players have beaten the expectations in 25 percent or fewer of their total rushing attempts: Duke Johnson, La'Mical Perine, Adrian Peterson, and Joshua Kelley. Peterson and Kelley are the only ones in that group with more than 58 carries. All four are at-or-below -0.6 RYOE per attempt.

We can easily calculate the "expected" yards per carry for running backs. Miles Sanders would top that leaderboard with 4.9 eY/A, followed by Brian Hill and Clyde Edwards-Helaire tied at 4.8 yards.
Factoring the usage of each player in, Cook has posted the most total yards over expectation at 253. He "should" have rushed for just 816 yards compared to his actual 1,069 through Week 11.
Chubb is a "close" second at 201 yards above expectation, and the only other rusher at 200+ such yards.
At the other end, Joshua Kelley makes another appearance having rushed the ball for 83 yards fewer than he should. Only Kelly and Todd Gurley II have "lost" 75+ through the season on the ground.
Melvin Gordon III and David Montgomery are the only two players to do exactly what the model say they should: no difference between their Y/A and their eY/A.

That's it for today. Until we meet again next week, I hope you can crush your waiver wire, set up the best possible lineup, and get ready for another weekend full of fireworks!

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