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Nothing is more important than matchup analysis when it comes to fantasy football. It is becoming clear that the Colts, 49ers, Chargers and Patriots Defenses are looking like units you want to avoid because they limit opposing passing attacks and point opportunities.
On the other side of things it's becoming even more clear that the Seahawks, Falcons, Vikings and Cowboys Defenses can't really stop anybody through the air, and picking on these defenses may be the prudent choices for this weekend.
Now, here are the top defenses to exploit for Week 4. Use these to set season-long lineups, as well as gain a competitive edge in the DFS games.
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New York Giants
The Giants Defense has been absolutely crushed out of the slot this year. Picking on the New York defenses has paid off all season and even the New York Jets were slashed for 37 points by the Denver Broncos on Thursday night. Los Angeles has just enough of a dynamic offense to put up 30+ points against a beleaguered New York Giants defense. The Pittsburgh Steelers were able to exploit the Giants down the middle in Week 1 and that has been the key for offenses all season long. New York cannot mount enough pressure up the middle to scare quarterbacks or slow down running backs.
Dallas Cowboys
The Browns are underdogs against the Cowboys this week in a game with an over/under listed at 56 points. This means that the Browns will need to throw a lot to keep up with a quick strike Dallas Cowboys offense. The expectation is to see the Browns have a big day through the air. On the season the Cowboys Defense has surrendered the second-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers and the fifth-most passing yards. The Cowboys have also given up 14 plays of 20-plus yards which is fourth-most in the NFL, so things are setting up well for Odell Beckham Jr. and the Cleveland offense. The final exclamation is that Dallas has allowed a league high nine passing touchdowns.
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks Defense has given up the most fantasy points to wide receivers so far this season and could be a boon for Ryan Fitzpatrick as well. The Seahawks are also giving up 12.7 yards-per-reception which is second-worst in the league and they have given up an NFL-high 18 plays of 20-plus yards. Seattle has only allowed six touchdowns through the air but a league-worst 1292 yards. Miami has shown an ability to score some points -- 32 against Buffalo and 30+ is not out of the question against a Seattle team that has to outscore its opponents.
Houston Texans
Houston has been bad all season long in slowing down even mediocre offenses. Pittsburgh could have easily scored 30+ points if they had not made a few unforced errors during Week 3. The Texans have been gouged to the tune of 5.2 yards allowed per rush and even that number could be worse. Their expected points contributed is the worst in all of the NFL which means the offenses typically can just score at will. Minnesota should be able to score at will in a matchup of teams that can put up points but give up more.
Minnesota Vikings
In Week 4, Houston will find itself facing the Vikings Defense which surrenders the third-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. The Vikings haven't been a lock-down defense so far this year, but they're better against the run than they are the pass, giving up just 4.2 yards-per-carry. The Vikings have given up 12.1 yards-per-reception and 14 plays of 20-plus yards which ranks them towards the bottom of the league in both categories. Minnesota gives up 34 points per game and can allow big plays and points in bunches.
This could be a week where the Houston-Minnesota matchup produces close to 80 points combined and a bevy of passing yards much like the Seattle-Dallas matchup last week which started slow. It would be a surprise if this game started as slow offensively.
Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons Defense is the worst fourth quarter team in the NFL and at this rate may be considered historically bad. They have yielded a league-worst 36 points per contest and double digit points in every final stanza. Along with Dallas, the Falcons secondary has been torched for nine touchdowns through the air. The coaching staff has found few answers as this team cannot slow the opposition down. Opposing squads average 6.4 yards per play overall. Even worse, it seems many passing plays go for more yards than they should. The Falcons allow 509 yards after the catch. No other team is above 500 in that category. Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers wide receivers have to be licking their chops this week. Considering the game is at Lambeau Field, Green Bay scoring 30+ is nearly certain. This could be another shootout.
Other Defenses to Exploit
Detroit Lions, Las Vegas Raiders, and the New England Patriots
The Lions and Raiders are teams one kind of expects to be here but the Patriots? Patrick Mahomes at home can make any defense even one like the Patriots look silly. Look at what Russell Wilson did to New England a few weeks back. That arguably was one of the best games of the young season. Mahomes could easily toss three or four touchdowns with Kansas City having an elevated probability of putting up 30+ points.
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