RADIO
We head into Week Six of the National Football League season and the results so far are starting to set some dividing lines between good and bad.
But that process is still early. The Patriots and 49ers are unbeaten and there are four more teams with one loss, but there are 16 teams – half of the league – with two or three losses at this point. That makes these games over the next couple of weeks critical to shaping where this season may be heading.
That’s also why there are a lot of competitive games on the schedule. There are a dozen games on Sunday’s schedule and nine of them have a point spread of four points or less. The exceptions are the Ravens at home against the winless Bengals, the Cowboys at the Jets and the Chargers facing the Steelers who head into battle with their third-string quarterback.
It starts early on Sunday with Carolina and Tampa Bay in London, kicking off at 9:30 at ET.
Here are some angles to consider when making your Week Six prop picks on Monkey Knife Fight.
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CAROLINA-TAMPA BAY
OVER/UNDERS
Jameis Winston UNDER 275.5 PASSING YARDS – The Bucs QB has had some big swings in passing yardage, throwing for 380-plus twice this season, but for fewer than 210 yards in each of the other three games. Facing a Carolina defense that is allowing 197 passing yards per game, the under seems to be the play here.
Kyle Allen OVER 257.5 PASSING YARDS – Carolina’s young quarterback is averaging a modest 224.7 passing yards per game and his effectiveness has dropped since his first start of the season against Arizona. At the same time, he does face a Tampa Bay defense that can’t control the pass at all, allowing a league-high 323.6 passing yards per game.
Christian McCaffrey UNDER 6.5 RECEPTIONS – The Panthers’ offense runs through McCaffrey and he does have a pair of 10-catch games already this season. At the same time, that’s a lot of targets, even for McCaffrey, and he’s dealing with a back injury so maybe Carolina gives him a bit of a break in the passing game.
Ronald Jones OVER 51.5 RUSHING YARDS – Jones does have three games with at least 70 yards rushing this season and goes up against a Panthers Defense that is allowing 134.4 rushing yards per game, and 4.9 yards per carry. The biggest issue for Jones may be who gets more carries for Tampa Bay, Jones or Peyton Barber?
Mike Evans UNDER 14.5 FANTASY POINTS – Sure, Evans should rebound from a zero-catch, three-target performance, but the Panthers aren’t exactly the opponent that allows wide receivers to get loose.
STAR SHOOTOUT - EARLY GAMES
OVER/UNDERS
Baker Mayfield OVER 260.5 PASSING YARDS – He has to be better than he was on Monday night against San Francisco, when he completed 8 of 22 passes for 100 yards, and Mayfield has thrown for more than 280 yards in three of five starts this season. He also faces a Seahawks team that has allowed 270.6 passing yards per game.
Andy Dalton OVER 258.5 PASSING YARDS – The Bengals are winless and Dalton has been throwing the ball a lot. Like averaging more than 40 passes per game a lot. He’s averaging 282.4 passing yards per game and the Ravens are giving up 280 passing yards per game. Sounds like we can come to a meeting of the minds on the over.
Russell Wilson OVER 255.5 PASSING YARDS – The Browns have allowed just 206.4 passing yards per game but Wilson is averaging 281.8 passing yards per game. With the game in Cleveland, there may be a better chance that the Browns stay in this game, which means more opportunity for Wilson to throw as opposed to running out the clock.
Deshaun Watson UNDER 305.5 PASSING YARDS – Yes, he passed for 426 yards and five touchdowns against Atlanta last week, but this is still a big ask for Watson, who has been held under 270 passing yards in three of five starts this season and faces a Chiefs Defense that has allowed 237.2 passing yards per game. There is an element of the Texans needing Watson to be great if they are going to keep pace with the Chiefs, but expecting at least 306 passing yards is a reach.
Patrick Mahomes UNDER 329.5 PASSING YARDS – The favorite for MVP has passed for more than 300 yards in every game this season but has been held under 330 in each of his past two starts and the Texans Defense has surrendered an average of 270.4 passing yards per game. It’s just about ridiculous to simply expect a quarterback to throw for at least 330 yards, even one as great as Mahomes.
RAPID FIRE
Michael Thomas -0.5 receptions vs. DeAndre Hopkins – It’s hard to keep pace with Thomas, who is averaging 9.0 receptions per game and has been targeted 13 times in three of the first five games. Even with Drew Brees out, the Saints can get him the ball. By contrast, Hopkins has averaged 6.2 receptions per game and hasn’t been targeted more than eight times in a game since Week One.
Leonard Fournette +5.5 rushing yards vs. Nick Chubb – After a slow start, Fournette has busted out in the past two weeks, rushing for 333 yards on 52 carries. Chubb has picked up his pace too, going for 348 yards on 59 carries in the past three games. However, he’s also facing a Seattle defense that has been stingy against the run, allowing 80.0 rushing yards per game, so getting Fournette as a slight underdog works.
Russell Wilson +2.5 fantasy points vs. Lamar Jackson – Both have been great early in this season but Wilson might face a more challenging game, against Cleveland, that would require him to throw more. It’s at least worth considering the league’s passing touchdown leader as an underdog.
STAR SHOOTOUT - LATE GAMES
OVER/UNDERS
Kyler Murray UNDER 275.5 PASSING YARDS – Arizona’s prized rookie quarterback has been held under 255 passing yards in three straight games and Atlanta has surrendered an average of 257.4 passing yards per game.
Dak Prescott UNDER 273.5 PASSING YARDS – In the two games that Prescott has thrown for more than 275 yards this season, he has also topped 400, including last week against Green Bay when Dallas was supposed to churn out yardage on the ground against Green Bay. Strange what happens when a team falls behind early. In any case, the expectation against the Jets is that Dallas should get a lead and be able to lean on Ezekiel Elliott to burn time off the clock on the way to victory.
Jimmy Garoppolo UNDER 269.5 PASSING YARDS – The Rams figure to be a tough enough opponent that Garoppolo will have to keep throwing but he’s averaging 230.0 passing yards per game so a jump of 40 yards seems significant.
Joe Flacco OVER 233.5 PASSING YARDS – Averaging 251.6 passing yards per game, Flacco only threw 20 passes in last week’s win over the Chargers, managing a meagre 182 yards passing. However, it’s a rare occurrence for the Broncos to get an early lead and hold it throughout so Flacco will need to throw more than that most weeks.
Matt Ryan UNDER 317.5 PASSING YARDS – Even though Ryan has surpassed 300 passing yards in all five games this season, this is still a big number to cover. Arizona is allowing 269.5 passing yards against, on average, and if the Falcons have a lead they may be inclined to run more and throw less.
Jared Goff OVER 278.5 PASSING YARDS – Consistency has been elusive for Goff but the Rams aren’t afraid to throw when necessary, and that has resulted in Goff throwing for 912 yards on 117 passes in the past two games. With Todd Gurley out, there’s even more reason to expect the Rams to pass in what should be a competitive game against San Francisco.
RAPID FIRE
Cooper Kupp +10.5 receiving yards vs. Julio Jones – With seven catches for 94 yards, total, in the past two games, it’s tough to take Jones as the favorite here. He’s dealing with a hip injury and Kupp is a more-than-lively underdog who has surpassed 100 receiving yards in four straight games.
Amari Cooper +0.5 receptions vs. George Kittle – An 11-catch outburst against Green Bay last week lifted Cooper’s season average to 6.4 receptions per game, which is more than Kittle’s 5.8 per game, but the bigger issue may be that Kittle is dealing with a groin injury that could hamper his effectiveness if he does play Sunday.
Kyler Murray -0.5 fantasy points vs. Le’Veon Bell – It’s been difficult for Bell to get loose in the Jets backfield, putting up 93 yards from scrimmage per game, with one touchdown in four games. Facing Dallas isn’t going to be an easy touch either, so go with Murray who should have more opportunities to produce against Atlanta.
