RADIO
Four weeks into the National Football League season, trends are emerging, both in terms of individual offensive performance and in terms of how defenses fare against a particular position. Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Miami are each allowing more than 300 passing yards per game, and the Dolphins offer the added bonus of allowing an average of three passing touchdowns per game.
At the other end of the spectrum, the Carolina Panthers are the only team in the league allowing fewer than 200 passing yards per game, while Denver, Green Bay, and New England range between 200 and 210 passing yards allowed per game.
Those are just a part of the calculations when coming up with expectations for weekly production. Here are some angles to consider for Week Five props on Monkey Knife Fight.
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STAR SHOOTOUT - EARLY GAMES
OVER/UNDERS
Tom Brady UNDER 289.5 PASSING YARDS – The Patriots are heavy favorites at Washington and deservedly so, but that doesn’t mean Brady has to be the one to go off. After being held to 150 passing yards at Buffalo last week, TB12 is averaging 265.3 passing yards per game through the first four weeks and Washington is allowing 259.5 passing yards per game. Needing 290 for the over is a little much.
Deshaun Watson UNDER 273.5 PASSING YARDS – The Texans’ passing game has not been able to get on track just yet. Wastson is averaging 234.5 passing yards per game and the Falcons have surrendered 222.5 per game, so needing 274 for the over is a steep hill to climb.
Carson Wentz OVER 271.5 PASSING YARDS – Although the Eagles quarterback has averaged a modest 240.8 passing yards per game early this season, he gets to go against a Jets squad that is giving up 299.7 passing yards per game thus far. It’s a mismatch and one that the Eagles should be happy to exploit.
Kyler Murray OVER 259.5 PASSING YARDS – Murray’s average of 267.8 passing yards per game is a bit inflated because of a full overtime in Week One against Detroit and the Bengals, for all of their flaws, have allowed just 241 passing yards per game but if this game is close – and it should be – then the Cardinals will likely need to keep throwing the ball so Murray should put up some yardage.
Matt Ryan OVER 303.5 PASSING YARDS – While the Falcons have been struggling on their way to a 1-3 record, all that losing is giving Matty Ice plenty of opportunity to throw the ball and he has averaged 331.3 passing yards per game. The Texans are allowing 283.3 passing yards per game, which is enough to like Ryan on the over again this week.
Jameis Winston OVER 289.5 PASSING YARDS – After a couple of mediocre weeks to start the season, Winston has hit his stride, throwing for 765 yards in the past two games. He has the personnel, including wideouts Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, to put up big numbers and the Saints Defense has allowed 295 passing yards per game.
Christian McCaffrey OVER 85.5 RUSHING YARDS – The Panthers give McCaffrey a heavy workload and he has averaged 102.8 rushing yards per game, going for more than 90 in three of four games.
RAPID FIRE
Michael Thomas -0.5 receptions vs. Tyler Boyd – Both receivers have slowed down after a couple of big weeks to start the season. Even so, Thomas is averaging 8.5 catches per game, compared to 6.8 per game for Boyd. Thomas also gets to face a Bucs secondary that has allowed a league-high 16.3 receptions by wide receivers through the first four weeks.
Julio Jones 7.5 receiving yards vs. Mike Evans – Kept under wraps by Tennessee last week, Jones is due for a bounce-back performance.
FANTASY CHALLENGE
The early slate offers premier running backs so why not take Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, and Dalvin Cook and enjoy that production? McCaffrey and Kamara were two of the top picks in fantasy this season and Cook has emerged as a big producer, especially with the Minnesota passing game in shambles.
STAR SHOOTOUT - LATE GAMES
OVER/UNDERS
Dak Prescott UNDER 263.5 PASSING YARDS – The question is whether the new Cowboys passing attack can handle the Packers Defense. Prescott has put up 285.8 passing yards per game this season but the Packers defense has been stingy, allowing just 207.8 passing yards per game. The advantage for the Cowboys may come in the running game, which could mean less Prescott usage.
Joe Flacco OVER 248.5 PASSING YARDS – There is not a lot to like about Flacco and the Broncos but he is averaging 269 passing yards per game and faces a Chargers team surrendering 241.5 passing yards per game. Call it half-hearted, if you must, but take the over.
Philip Rivers OVER 283.5 PASSING YARDS – On one hand, Rivers is averaging a career-high 313.5 passing yards per game and, on the other, the Broncos are allowing just 206.8 passing yards per game. Of course, the Broncos are losing so much that opponents don’t need to throw but here’s thinking that this game will be competitive and that will keep Rivers chucking it downfield.
Aaron Rodgers UNDER 273.5 PASSING YARDS – After three uninspiring weeks, Rodgers did bust out for 422 passing yards at Philadelphia last week. That looked like vintage Aaron Rodgers but that hasn’t been his standard lately and the Cowboys Defense is allowing 241.5 passing yards per game.
RAPID FIRE
Keenan Allen -1.5 receptions vs. Amari Cooper – Allen is much more of a fixture in the Chargers attack, averaging 8.5 receptions per game through four weeks, and that includes just five after they called off the dogs against Miami last week. Cooper is a contributor but has averaged 5.8 receptions per game.
Ezekiel Elliott -27.5 rushing yards vs. Aaron Jones – With the expectation that the Cowboys might find it more challenging to pass against the Packers, Elliott is the much safer play than Jones, who has been held under 40 yards rushing in three of four games this season.
FANTASY CHALLENGE
Doubling down on the Rapid Fire picks, ride Zeke, Keenan Allen, and Austin Ekeler for the fantasy challenge. Ekeler should still get the most action for the Chargers, even with Melvin Gordon returning to action.
