RADIO
Week 9 of the NFL season brings another early start in London, and quite a few competitive matchups. Heading into the weekend, there is only one Sunday game with a point spread greater than five points. (Dallas is favored by seven at the Giants on Monday night.)
The relatively close nature of the point spreads should mean there will be some close games which will mean teams need to play right to the end of the game. This is as opposed to what happens in blowouts when the leading team tends to forgo passing and focus on running out the clock – an effective enough strategy, albeit one that isn’t very entertaining nor helpful for those picking the overs on quarterback passing yards!
With expectations for some close games on the schedule, here are some angles to consider before making your prop picks on Monkey Knife Fight.
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HOUSTON-JACKSONVILLE
OVER/UNDERS
Deshaun Watson OVER 266.5 PASSING YARDS – Although the Jaguars pass defense is a little better than average, allowing 234.3 passing yards per game, Watson has thrown for 267 or more yards in six of his eight starts this season, including four straight.
Gardner Minshew OVER 256.5 PASSING YARDS – The Jaguars rookie has had his moments, including three games with at least 257 passing yards, and he is facing a Texans team that allows an average of 276.8 passing yards per game. With the Texans’ pass rush missing J.J. Watt, that could provide enough time for Minshew to get the ball downfield.
RAPID FIRE
D.J. Chark +22.5 receiving yards vs. DeAndre Hopkins – Strangely enough, Chark is averaging more receiving yards per game (82.5 to 77.1) but Hopkins has gone for 100 yards in back-to-back games and has been targeted in double digits in three straight games. Both receivers have big play and big game potential but getting an extra 22.5 yards with the underdog is the way to go.
Leonard Fournette -20.5 rushing yards vs. Carlos Hyde – Fournette is averaging 98.9 rushing yards per game, compared to 68.0 per game for Hyde, though Houston’s run defense has been notably better. Again, those results include the contributions of J.J. Watt, so it’s worth considering the possibility that the Jaguars could exploit that loss along the defensive line.
STAR SHOOTOUT - EARLY GAMES
OVER/UNDERS
Kirk Cousins OVER 280.5 PASSING YARDS – At the start of the season, this number was way out of reach for Cousins but the Vikings offense has been clicking lately, and that includes Cousins averaging 315.3 passing yards per game in the past four games.
Sam Darnold UNDER 257.5 PASSING YARDS – Everyone remembers that Darnold threw for 332 yards in that upset win against the Cowboys when he returned from mono, but he’s been nowhere close to 258 passing yards in his three other starts this season. The question then is how awful is the Dolphins Defense? They are awful but getting more competitive (at least for a winless team).
Carson Wentz UNDER 249.5 PASSING YARDS – The Eagles passing game has been stumbling lately and that has left Wentz with fewer than 200 passing yards in four of the past five games. Going up against a Bears Defense with a strong pass rush that allows 230.6 passing yards per game is not the time to expect Wentz to go for 250-plus.
Kyle Allen UNDER 236.5 PASSING YARDS – Since his first start for the Panthers this season, when he passed for 261 yards and four touchdowns, the trend has been going down for Allen, reaching last week’s depths of 158 passing yards with zero touchdowns and three interceptions. Tennessee’s pass defense is better than average, which doesn’t bode well for Allen.
Ryan Fitzpatrick OVER 235.5 PASSING YARDS – We all remember Fitzmagic last season, putting up surprisingly huge numbers with Tampa Bay, but it’s a whole new level of magic required to do it with the Dolphins. A home game against the Jets might just be what the doctor ordered, however, for Fitzpatrick to throw for at least 236 yards, something he has managed once this season – two weeks ago in Buffalo.
Mitchell Trubisky OVER 234.5 PASSING YARDS – While his season has to be considered a disappointment thus far, Trubisky has thrown for 504 yards in two starts since returning from injury and faces an Eagles team that has some questions in the secondary. That should be enough to pass for 235 yards, shouldn’t it?
RAPID FIRE
Allen Robinson -0.5 receptions vs. Christian McCaffrey – As much as McCaffrey is a dual threat out of the Carolina backfield, he has exploded for 10 receptions twice this season but has been held to six or fewer in the remaining five contests. Robinson is averaging 6.6 receptions per game as the No. 1 option in Chicago’s passing attack.
Stefon Diggs +2.5 receiving yards vs. JuJu Smith-Schuster – There is the possibility that Diggs loses some looks to Adam Thielen, his Vikings teammate who may be ready to return from injury, but Diggs has gone for 100-plus yards in four of the past five games. Smith-Schuster is coming off his first 100-yard game of the season against Miami on Monday night.
STAR SHOOTOUT - LATE GAMES
OVER/UNDERS
Aaron Rodgers UNDER 287.5 PASSING YARDS – Early in the season, this would have been an easy under to pick but now Rodgers is looking like vintage Rodgers, passing for 734 yards and eight touchdowns in the past two weeks. The Chargers pass defense is allowing just 217.4 passing yards per game but they are allowing 8.4 yards per pass attempt, which is in the bottom half dozen, so the Chargers’ defense isn’t terribly effective when the other team chooses to pass the ball.
Jameis Winston OVER 284.5 PASSING YARDS – After some early-seasons struggles, the Bucs passing game has been prolific lately, with Winston passing for more than 300 yards in four of the past five games. Seattle is surrendering an average of 273.3 passing yards per game which is high enough to think that Winston can go over.
Matthew Stafford OVER 296.5 PASSING YARDS – It has been quite a while, 2012 in fact, since Stafford averaged 299 passing yards per game, as he is right now. The Lions can throw the ball and they face a Raiders team that is among the worst pass defenses in the league, in no small part because they can’t pressure the quarterback.
Philip Rivers UNDER 296.5 PASSING YARDS – Rivers does have five 300-yard passing games and is averaging 289.4 passing yards per game this season, so it would hardly be a stretch for him to hit the over but the Packers Defense is allowing 251.8 passing yards per game and could provide sufficient resistance.
Russell Wilson OVER 269.5 PASSING YARDS – The Seahawks quarterback has thrown for 265.9 yards per game but gets the benefit of facing a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed more than 285 passing yards per game.
RAPID FIRE
Chris Godwin -0.5 receptions vs. Keenan Allen – While Godwin was held in check last week, Allen has been struggling to get loose, playing with a hamstring injury and left as an afterthought at times for the Chargers, averaging 4.4 catches per game in the past five.
Mike Evans +0.5 receiving yards vs. Tyler Lockett – Since his bizarre zero reception game against New Orleans in Week Five, Evans has 20 catches on 29 targets for 294 yards. Lockett had his second 100-yard game of the season last week but he doesn’t have the same ceiling as Evans.
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