RADIO
It’s Championship Weekend in the NFL and there are two clear favorites. Break the games down and make prop picks with Monkey Knife Fight.
In the AFC Championship game, the Tennessee Titans take their ground game, powered by Derrick Henry, and hope that they can keep this run going. It worked against the Patriots and Ravens. Will it be enough to keep up with Kansas City’s aerial attack? Patrick Mahomes led the Chiefs to a historic comeback against the Houston Texans in the Divisional round and that explosiveness makes the Chiefs clear favorites.
In the NFC, the San Francisco 49ers have a dominant defense and face a Green Bay Packers team that has been relatively underwhelming for a team that went 13-3 in the regular season. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t been as good and that could pose a real problem against the league’s best pass defense. The 49ers already crushed the Packers 37-8 in Week 12 so it appears that there is a clear mismatch between these two teams.
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TENNESSEE-KANSAS CITY
MORE OR LESS
Patrick Mahomes LESS THAN 319.5 PASSING YARDS – The Chiefs star quarterback did squeeze past this threshold last week, throwing for 321 yards in a monster comeback against Houston but he had passed for 320 or more yards once in the previous six games. The Titans pass defense has not been great (255.3 passing yards per game, 7.3 yards per attempt) overall, and did allow 345 passing yards to Baltimore last week, but has held the opposition under 320 passing yards in seven straight games since their Week 11 bye week.
Ryan Tannehill LESS THAN 209.5 PASSING YARDS – This appears to be a much more reasonable number to cover and yet Tannehill has passed for 160 yards, total, in two playoff games. The Titans lean on their running game and Kansas City has been effective in terms of pass defense (221.4 passing yards per game, 6.7 yards per attempt). The Chiefs have allowed at least 210 passing yards in 10 of 17 games this season, including 348 passing yards against Houston last week, but Tannehill’s paltry playoff production makes it hard to take his side.
Derrick Henry MORE THAN 124.5 RUSHING YARDS – Henry may be the story of this year’s playoffs, which explains this huge number that he’s being asked to cover. In his past eight games, he has averaged more than 159 rushing yards per game, going for at least 125 yards in six of eight games. The Chiefs are giving up 128.2 rushing yards per game, with 4.9 yards per carry, so stopping the run seems to be a challenge and that’s not a great challenge to have when facing this force of nature.
RAPID FIRE
Travis Kelce -2.5 receiving yards vs. Tyreek Hill – In the past seven weeks, Kelce has put up 622 receiving yards, 88.9 per game, and that’s a tough pace for Hill to keep since he hasn’t a single game with more than 72 receiving yards since Week 10.
A.J. Brown -0.5 receptions vs. Sammy Watkins – In his past seven games, Watkins has put up a total of 14 receptions. Brown has managed a single reception in three of the past four games but still has 27 receptions in his past eight games – he has a higher upside as his team’s top receiver, though with a quarterback who isn’t nearly as dangerous.
GREEN BAY-SAN FRANCISCO
MORE OR LESS
Jimmy Garoppolo LESS THAN 250.5 PASSING YARDS – The 49ers don’t always lean on Garoppolo but he has shown that he can put up the numbers when called upon. He averaged 248.6 passing yards per game during the regular season then passed for just 131 yards on 19 passes in a comfortable playoff win against Minnesota. The Packers are a middle of the pack squad when it comes to defending the pass, though they have held opponents under 250 passing yards in five of the past seven games, and Garoppolo has thrown for at least 251 yards seven times in 17 games this season so this looks like a slight lean towards the under.
Aaron Rodgers LESS THAN 245.5 PASSING YARDS – It’s no longer a secret that Rodgers isn’t the same quarterback that he was in his prime. He has been held under 245 passing yards in eight of the past nine games, including Week 12 when the 49ers, the team with the best pass defense numbers this season, held Rodgers to just 104 passing yards.
Davante Adams 88.5 RECEIVING YARDS – Even with some skepticism around Rodgers’ production, Adams is his surefire number one option. In his past four games, Adams has 35 receptions for 472 yards on 53 targets. That workload, for a team that figures to be trailing, should give him a shot at more than 88 receiving yards.
RAPID FIRE
Davante Adams +0.5 receptions vs. George Kittle – Kittle is a beast but the 49ers don’t necessarily need him to come up huge – he had three catches for 16 yards on five targets in a comfortable win last week – whereas Adams figures to get double-digit targets if the Packers have to play from behind, so the opportunity for more receptions should be on Adams’ side, even when facing a superior pass defense.
Aaron Jones -10.5 rushing yards vs. Tevin Coleman – Virtually an afterthought in the second half of the season, Coleman had a season-high 22 carries for 105 rushing yards, which tied his season high. Jones does have three 100-yard rushing games in the past five and has more than 20 carries in three straight games. Coleman is dealing with an elbow injury and Jones’ track record has been more consistent, so give the nod to the Packers running back.
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