RADIO
The first Sunday of the NFL season brings 14 games, offering great options to play props and win with Monkey Knife Fight.
With so many games on the schedule, you can get as deep as you like when seeking value plays but if you want to focus on the biggest names in the biggest games, check out the Star Shootout. Still great options and plenty of potential value on the board.
Here are some Star Shootout prop angles to consider for Sunday’s Monkey Knife Fight NFL schedule:
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STAR SHOOTOUT - EARLY GAMES
MORE OR LESS
Matthew Stafford LESS THAN 276.5 PASSING YARDS
In eight games last season, before he needed season-ending back surgery, Stafford averaged 312.5 passing yards per game, his highest per-game average since 2011, when he was throwing to Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson, Brandon Pettigrew, and Titus Young. It looks like his current No. 1 receiver, Kenny Golladay, is unlikely to play this week and the Chicago Bears, for all their flaws, were allowing 222.1 passing yards per game, and 5.9 net yards per attempt, both ranking in the Top 10 defensively.
Matt Ryan LESS THAN 290.5 PASSING YARDS
This is a big number but maybe not unrealistic, given that Ryan has averaged 302.5 passing yards per game over the past two seasons. He has a dangerous group of receivers, headed by Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, and the Falcons will probably need to throw the ball to have some success against Seattle. The Seahawks were vulnerable against the pass last season, allowing 263.9 passing yards per game last season, the sixth-highest average in the league. The Seahawks did try to address their secondary, though, making trades for cornerback Quinton Dunbar and safety Jamal Adams, so maybe it’s not going to be such easy pickings for the Falcons.
Aaron Rodgers LESS THAN 254.5 PASSING YARDS
As one might expect of a 36-year-old quarterback, Rodgers isn’t what he was during his peak seasons and last season he averaged 250.1 passing yards per game. The Packers didn’t tangibly improve their receiving corps in the offseason either. Minnesota allowed 236.6 passing yards per game last season and Rodgers has thrown for 255 yards or more once in his past five games, though one of those games was cut short by injury.
Josh Jacobs MORE THAN 86.5 RUSHING YARDS
As a rookie for the Raiders last season, Jacobs averaged 88.5 rushing yards per game, and he goes up against a Panthers team that allowed a league-high 5.2 yards per carry last season. Carolina did use the sixth overall pick on defensive tackle Derrick Brown, which should help, but they also lost star linebacker Luke Kuechly to retirement, so there may still be some holes for Jacobs to exploit.
RAPID FIRE
Davante Adams +9.5 receiving yards vs. Julio Jones
Based on their per-game averages from last season, this line is in the right ballpark. Jones averaged 92.9 receiving yards per game in 2019 and Adams put up 83.1 yards per game. Here’s my thinking, though: Jones is more apt to lose targets to Calvin Ridley (among others) in the Falcons offense and, given the options available, it’s hard to imagine Adams getting fewer looks from Rodgers so maybe consider the lively underdog in this game.
RECEPTION COLLECTION
Davante Adams, Julio Jones, and Zach Ertz more than 19.5 RECEPTIONS
Looking for three receivers in the early games that could combine for 20 catches, Adams and Jones are both likely to get a lot of looks as their teams’ top wide receivers with track records as prolific pass catchers. Ertz is a little more interesting because of all the injuries to Philadelphia’s receiving corps, that if there is going to be a reliable option in that Eagles passing game, it might as well be the tight end Ertz, who has 204 catches in the past two seasons.
STAR SHOOTOUT - LATE GAMES
MORE OR LESS
Tom Brady LESS THAN 287.5 PASSING YARDS
Certainly there is going to be incentive for Brady to air it out in his first game for Tampa Bay and they might need to throw a lot to keep pace with the Saints. However, Brady has averaged less than 287 passing yards per game for three years running and faces the prospect of going without wide receiver Mike Evans, who is questionable for Week One.
Austin Ekeler MORE THAN 19.5 FANTASY POINTS
Ekeler had six games last season in which he put up at least 100 yards from scrimmage, and he was still mostly a backup – he had more than a dozen carries in a game just twice – so what can he do now as the primary option in the San Diego backfield? It’s time for the Bengals to find out.
Alvin Kamara LESS THAN 20.5 FANTASY POINTS
The Saints star took a step back last season, when he was playing hurt for part of the year, but he scored just six touchdowns and if he can’t be counted on for touchdowns (he scored 31 in his first two seasons) it gets a lot harder to pile up 21 fantasy points, even for a lead back who is also a consistent receiving threat. How consistent? He has finished each of his first three NFL seasons with exactly 81 catches.
Chris Godwin MORE THAN 79.5 RECEIVING YARDS
While it’s fair to be skeptical about Brady’s debut for the Bucs, that doesn’t mean that Godwin can’t go for significant yardage. He averaged 95.2 receiving yards per game last season and if Evans really can’t go, Godwin should be the clear first option for Brady.
RAPID FIRE
Michael Thomas -1.5 receptions vs. George Kittle
Thomas has more receptions than anyone in the past two seasons, hauling in 274 passes, more than 8.5 per game. Kittle is the prototype for the modern tight end and should be a primary target for the 49ers, especially considering injuries to their receiving corps, but Kittle is averaging 5.7 receptions per game in the past two seasons, which isn’t close enough to like him as the underdog here.
Kenyan Drake +10.5 rushing yards vs. Joe Mixon
Mixon averaged 71.1 rushing yards per game last season, a solid number, but maybe not enough to prefer him by 11 yards over Drake. Although Drake averaged 58.4 rushing yards per game last season, he put up 80.4 rushing yards per game in eight games for Arizona after he was acquired from Miami. That’ enough to like Drake’s chances as the underdog.
