RADIO
Heading into Week Two of the National Football League season there are many opportunities to play props and win with Monkey Knife Fight.
There is naturally a tendency to react, and maybe overreact, to the information coming out of Week One. It’s one thing if the information is injury related. That affects a player’s role and production. But usage is a tricky bit of information to navigate. Score effects have a lot to say about whether team is more likely to run or throw the ball so applying that to what will happen in Week Two may not connect the dots.
At the same time, there is new information available. Players on new teams or with new coaches can’t just be assumed to be the same as they were a year ago, so there is a balancing act to consider when deciding just how much of Week One should go into your evaluations for Week Two.
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STAR SHOOTOUT - EARLY GAMES
MORE OR LESS
Matt Ryan MORE THAN 304.5 PASSING YARDS
Last season, Ryan threw for 297.7 yards per game and then he dropped 450 yards on Seattle in Week One, with his top three receivers – Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Russell Gage – each getting targeted for a dozen passes each and all three finished with more than 100 receiving yards. The Cowboys gave up 275 passing yards to Jared Goff and the Rams in Week One, which isn’t the most encouraging sign and this game could easily turn into a track meet.
Dak Prescott MORE THAN 299.5 PASSING YARDS
In Week One at Atlanta, Seattle’s Russell Wilson completed 31 of 35 passes for 322 yards and four touchdowns. It was like the Falcons were barely providing any resistance at all. Although Prescott averaged 306.4 passing yards per game last season, he managed a more reasonable 266 at the Rams in Week One (though he could have gone over 300 if not for a questionable offensive pass interference call against Michael Gallup in the last minute). But, given the porous nature of Atlanta’s defense this could be a game in which Prescott gets to explore the space with his top three wide receivers: Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup, and rookie CeeDee Lamb.
Tom Brady LESS THAN 285.5 PASSING YARDS
The Bucs will look to bounce back against Carolina in Week Two, after a disappointing opener at New Orleans, and Brady doesn’t have an easy path. Star wide receiver Chris Godwin remains in concussion protocol and if he can’t play, that puts a lot of pressure on top wide receivers Mike Evans and Scott Miller with tight ends Rob Gronkowski and O.J. Howard. Like, there are still options there, but the Bucs offense isn’t as dangerous without Godwin. Although the Panthers allowed just 239 passing yards to Derek Carr in Week One, they allowed 8.0 net yards per pass attempt, the fourth-highest mark in the league.
Derrick Henry MORE THAN 96.5 RUSHING YARDS
This is a big number to cover. While Henry rushed for 116 yards Monday night against Denver, he also needed 31 carries to get there. The Titans will likely keep feeding Henry this week, especially with top wideout A.J. Brown injured. In Week One, against Indianapolis, the Jaguars allowed 88 rushing yards on 22 carries but they were among the worst against the run in 2019, surrendering 5.1 yards per carry, the second-highest average in the league.
Ezekiel Elliott LESS THAN 89.5 RUSHING YARDS
Elliott rushed for 96 yards in Dallas’ opening loss to the Rams and averaged 84.5 rushing yards per game last season so 90ish yards seems to be in the right neighborhood. The Falcons’ run defense wasn’t bad last season, allowing 110.9 rushing yards per game and 4.2 yards per carry, both of which were a little better than average, and as easily as the Seahawks moved the ball against Atlanta, they gained just 84 yards on the ground (on 20 carries).
RAPID FIRE
Julio Jones -3.5 receiving yards vs. Davante Adams
Adams was a bigger underdog in this head-to-head matchup last week (Jones was favored by 9.5 yards) and then both went off Sunday, with Julio accumulating 157 yards and Davante putting up 156. With the Falcons facing the Cowboys and the Packers taking on the Lions, it looks like another week in which it is reasonable to take underdog Adams plus the yardage.
STAR SHOOTOUT - LATE GAMES
MORE OR LESS
Patrick Mahomes LESS THAN 305.5 PASSING YARDS
The Kansas City quarterback was great in the opener against Houston, wasn’t he? He was, and passed for a total of 211 yards. He averaged 287.9 passing yards per game last season and goes against a Chargers team that allowed a paltry 200.3 passing yards per game last season. The Chiefs might win comfortably but they also have the ground game to finish a game when they have the lead rather than continuing to throw the ball.
Kyler Murray LESS THAN 254.5 PASSING YARDS
This is a pretty big number attached to Murray, who isn’t afraid to tuck that ball and run when the opportunity presents itself (he rushed a career-high 13 times for 91 yards in last week’s win at San Francisco). He faces a Washington Football Team that allowed 270 passing yards to Philadelphia quarterback Carson Wentz in Week One so there is some vulnerability there but Washington’s pass defense was pretty average, in terms of yards allowed per game and per attempt, last season.
Lamar Jackson MORE THAN 25.5 FANTASY POINTS
Coming off an MVP campaign, Jackson looked even better in Week One, completing 80% of his passes on the way to throwing for 275 yards and three touchdowns while adding another 45 yards on the ground. Some of that surely falls on a questionable Cleveland defense but Jackson looks like he is going to be a handful for Houston this week, too. The Texans’ defense was below average last season and looked helpless at times against Kansas City in Week One so best of luck containing Jackson.
Deshaun Watson LESS THAN 19.5 FANTASY POINTS
Although Watson finished with respectable numbers in Week One, he padded those stats in what was effectively garbage time, after Kansas City had jumped out to a comfortable lead. That could very well happen again this week, taking on Baltimore, but if the expectation is that the team is overmatched, it’s tough to bank on garbage time production to get the job done.
RAPID FIRE
DeAndre Hopkins -7.5 receiving yards vs. Travis Kelce
In Week One, Kelce caught all six passes sent his way for a modest 50 yards. The Chiefs have a lot of weapons. The Cardinals don’t have quite as many and leaned much more heavily on Hopkins, who had a career-high 14 catches, on 16 targets, for 151 yards at San Francisco. Just based on expected usage right now, Hopkins is the choice.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire -3.5 rushing yards vs. Kenyan Drake
Kansas City’s rookie, Edwards-Helaire, ran for 138 yards on 25 carries in his NFL debut and looks for an encore against the Chargers, a team that was average against the run last season, in Week Two. Drake rushed 16 times for 60 yards against San Francisco but does get a better matchup this week, facing a Washington team that was one of the league’s worst against the run in 2019.
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