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As always, there are a couple of games we can look to target this week including the Oakland Raiders at New York Jets and Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles.
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Raiders @ Jets
Over/Under Contest
Recommended Prop Pick: Derek Carr over 273.5 passing yards and Sam Darnold over 268.5 passing yards.
This game has an average total of 45.5, but based on how these two defenses play, I think it will feature a lot of passing from both quarterbacks.
The Jets Defense is only allowing 65.4 rushing yards per game to running backs and only allowing 3.01 yards per carry. This tells me that the Raiders are going to struggle mightily to consistently move the ball on the ground with Josh Jacobs, which is something they like to do a lot of. The Jets are not very good against the pass, however. They have allowed quarterbacks to throw for an average of 270.4 yards per game, which ranks 11th-worst in the league. Derek Carr has also eclipsed this prop total in four of his last five games, and I expect to see the same in this game.
The Raiders Defense is also much stronger against the run as opposed to the pass. They currently only allow 88.6 rushing yards per game to runnings backs and 4.3 yards per carry. While this isn't horrid, it is not the best way to attack them as they currently allow quarterbacks to throw for 281.7 yards per game, which ranks them sixth-worst in the league. Darnold has eclipsed this prop total in two of his last six games as well and missed it in a third game by only eight yards. With the Raiders favored by three and likely to be in the lead late in the game, I think Darnold has a solid day en route to throwing over the total.
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Seahawks @ Eagles
Over/Under Contest
Recommended Prop Pick: Russell Wilson over 271.5 passing yards and Carson Wentz over 250.5 passing yards.
I am not as confident in this over/under prop as I am the Derek Carr and Sam Darnold prop, but I still think this matchup sets these two quarterbacks up to go over the totals. Vegas tends to agree as they have set the total as the second-highest on the board at 48.0.
Both of these defenses are solid against the run and struggle vs the pass, which is like I like the over for both quarterbacks. Granted, the Eagles' secondary has been better over the past few weeks, but Russell Wilson has more than proven his ability to move the ball through the air this season as he has gone over the total four times and almost hit it a fifth time.
The Eagles currently allow 252.5 passing yards per game to quarterbacks, but only allow 64.8 rushing yards to running backs per game, which ranks second-best in the league. The Seahawks are not going to be able to pound the rock with Chris Carson as much as they would like. This sets up to be a win-or-lose on the arm of Russell Wilson type game. I think the gameplan will be to attack the Eagles through the air, which is where they are weakest.
The same holds for the Seahawks Defense. They currently allow 285.3 passing yards per game to quarterbacks, but only allow 74.8 rushing yards per game to running backs. The Eagles have also struggled to run the ball this season, and will likely lean on Wentz in this game. When faced with lesser pass defenses in the likes of the Lions and Vikings, Wentz was able to top this total. The fact that the game total is set at 48 with the Eagles favored by 1.5 tells me this game will be tight. The strength of the defenses tells me passing more often will be necessary to win.
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