RADIO
There are quite a few "chalk" stacks I felt I needed to exclude from my Week 8 GPP DFS stack consideration set. Like most weeks, Kansas City is a chalky stack, but this week against the Jets they are nearly too easy. The addition of Carlos Dunlap will help Seattle, but that secondary has been so horrendous I felt that a 49er stack was also too chalky. The Titans and Packers, plus both sides of the Browns/Raiders game should also be highly owned stacks this week.
So who's left?
Given some of the high scoring games not included on the main slate, the answer is not a lot. However, as the ground dries up, it just means you need to drill deeper. That's where me and my trusty treasure-finding shovel and gem-finding pick-ax come in handy! Stand back, as I need some room. But here are some week 8 GPP stacks to help you uncover riches in your GPP lineups this week.
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Week 8 NFL DFS Stacks: The "Strong Team/Potentially Tough Matchup" Stack
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steeler are absolutely in one of the rougher parts of their schedule. They narrowly escaped with a road win last week against Tennessee and now hope to do it again in Charm City against their bitter division rivals. Furthermore, Baltimore is coming off the bye and will be better rested than Pittsburgh. And Baltimore will have fans in the stadium for this game, but not even 10K fans, so then again they might actually be visiting Baltimore at a good time.
Of course it's a good time in the city of black and gold as the Steelers are off to a perfect 6-0 record. The Ravens have lost just one game themselves, but there are some questions as to just how good these Ravens are. There was enough concern about the Ravens Defense that the Ravens went out and acquired Yannick Ngakoue from Minnesota.
Vikings and Ravens finalizing a trade to send DE Yannick Ngakoue to Baltimore for a 2021 third-round pick and a 2022 conditional fifth-round pick, sources tell ESPN.
Vikings initially sent 2021 second-round pick and 2022 conditional fifth-round pick to Jags. Now get most back.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) October 22, 2020
And as I said in my DFS Value plays article, I know that when most hear "Ravens-Steelers game" and think this will be a defensive slobber-knocker. Yes, of course, there will be some bone-crushing hits. But this is not the Ray Lewis Ravens or Troy Polamula Steelers. Vegas has an over/under of 46 points on this game, so forget one of those classic 16-13 matches. There will be points scored.
Which brings us to Ben Roethlisberger. After last year's injury-marred season, Roethlisberger is on pace for to have his sixth 4000+ yard season, which would be his third in four years. He is also on pace to be right around his career season high of 34 touchdowns. He's completing his highest percentage of passes in the last five years. All of that is just a more detailed way to saying Big Ben is having a great year. Given that Baltimore is smack in the middle when it comes to giving up fantasy points to quarterbacks, this is not a match-up by itself to shy away from Roethlisberger. When you consider that Baltimore has been particularly brutal on opposing RBs (giving up the fifth fewest fantasy points to RBs), I expect we see Roethlisberger easily more than 30 times this weekend.
And he will have mutliple options to help him out as well. JuJu Smith-Schuster finally looked like a WR1 option last week as he was targeted 14 times. He does have three touchdowns on the year, but has yet to score this month. But here's an interesting fact--Smith Schuster has never played four games in a row without scoring at least one touchdown. If Pittsburgh is going to win this week, expect Juju to put six on the board.
Of course part of the reason for the someone quiet season for Juju has been the breakout of once again a Steeler rookie WR. Much to the chagrin of Ravens fan, Chase Claypool is proving to be the real deal. Yes, Claypool had a disappointing game last week, but had a combined 184 yards and three touchdowns in the two combined previous weeks. Of course as good as Claypool has been so far, Diontae Johnson might actually be the best bet to stack with Roethlisberger.
Johnson saw his third game with double digit targets this past week and turned that into nine catches for 80 yards and two scores. Johnson likely won't see double figure targets against the Ravens, but he did have 15 combined targets last year against them. But eight targets is a reasonable expectation. He's averaging the fewest FPPG of the top three Steeler WR options, but expect that to change by week 9.
Last week I introduced the addition of a "runback" option for each stack, but you will understand why I am not doing that for either of my first two stacks momentarily...
Week 8 NFL DFS Stacks: The "Enough Steeler Love Already!" Stack
Baltimore Ravens
Given the amount of praise I heaped on Pittsburgh above, you might think I like the Steelers to win that game.
I don't.
I will remind you that the Ravens won both games against their divisonal rival, putting up 26 and 28 points in their two games against the Steelers last year. I don't see the Ravens topping 30, but the Ravens should easily put up totals similar to last year. Vegas agrees, giving the Ravens an implied total of more than 24 points and are favored by three points.
Plus, while the Steelers Defense is okay, they're not great. They are strong against the run, but are struggling against the pass. Proof? They are giving up over 40 fantasy points a game to WRs, which is the 12th worst in the league. Meanwhile, Marquise Brown is only in his second year, but he is averaging seven targets a game and is on pace for a thousand-yard season. Even more impressive than his base stats might be some of his more advanced stats. Through his first six games, Brown had the third most "air yards" and after this week should see his touchdown total double. Ravens head coach John Harbaugh is 10-2 after a bye. The point being made here is that you should expect the Ravens to draw up a number of plays to get the ball in their best receiver's hands. Brown is a particularly attractive piece to stack on FanDuel where he is not even priced within the top 25 WRs.
Pittsburgh has been pretty stout against tight ends this year, but Mark Andrews is having a spectacular season. Surprisingly he is outside the top dozen tight ends in targets, but he's making his targets count as he is currently tied for the most touchdowns in the league by a tight end. For those doubting his ability to catch ten touchdowns again, he's at five already. Given that Baltimore is scoring a third-best 83% of the time in the red zone in their last three games, don't be surprised to Andrews get to half a dozen TDs this game.
Of course it all starts with the reigning MVP, Lamar Jackson. Jackson has had what might be generously described as an "uneven" start to the season. He finally had his first 100-yard rushing game right before the bye. And that's particular important given how inaccurate many of his passes have been this season. He opened the season looking sharp and passed for 275 yards against Cleveland. However, since then he has yet to pass for more than 204 passing yards. If the Ravens are going to win this game, it will be because of Jackson. Teams have elected to throw against Pittsburgh a league-high 65.1 percent of plays. Despite that, Pittsburgh is still allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game.
But we know when these teams meet, all the stats often become meaningless numbers. I'm expecting Lamar to come ready to play and his talent will not only help the Ravens win, but will help you win a GPP contest or two.
NFL Week 8 DFS Stacks: The "This Kid is Good" Stack
Los Angeles Chargers
Perhaps I'm giving Lamar some love because I actually just traded him away in one of my long-time seasonal leagues. But I don't regret it given that I will now be flying with Justin Herbert the rest of the way. I am so impressed with what I have seen from this kid and I can't get this Top Gun Viper's quote out of my head when it comes to Herbert.
Part of me feels really bad for Tyrod Taylor, but Herbert is good. He is sporting a 4:1 TD to INT ratio (12 to 3) and averaging over 308 passing yards per game. And if that wasn't enough, he's got two rushing touchdowns this season already. And he's doing all this despite the starting center, starting right tackle, and starting right guard having missed time this year. Will we ironically see him grounded when he goes to Mile High this week?
The Broncos are allowing the seventh-fewest yards per attempt (6.82) and the ninth-lowest touchdown percentage (3.70%). They are also registering sacks on 7.63 percent of drop-backs. In fact, they are limiting opposing quarterbacks to only 0.407 fantasy points per pass attempt, which is the league's ninth best. Despite all that, the Broncos are allowing a below league average 25.99 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Quarterbacks are getting their points against them on the ground. And Herbert has the athleticism to do it. I remind you that at the Combine, Herbert had a 91st-percentile Burst Score and a 99.5 SPARQ-x score.
Despite somewhat limiting quarterbacks through the air, the Broncos are seeing an average of 36 pass attempts per game which has enabled both tight ends and wide receivers to rack up the fantasy points against them. They are outside of the top dozen in both categories including just the 20th toughest against WRs. And given the tear that Keenan Allen has been on lately (either a score or at least seven catches in the last five games), it could be another rough week for the Denver secondary. Seven different WRs have posted top-25 finishes against Denver. Allen will be the eighth.
Mike Williams on the other hand has been pretty boom-or-bust this year. We might be looking at a big game from Williams however as he will likely be covered by third-round rookie Michael Ojemudia. Ojemudia has been absolutely torched to the tune of 23-of-38 passing for 328 yards and two touchdowns so far in his coverage. Some quick math and that's a whopping 14.3 yards per reception, which is a nice match for Williams, whose aDOT (average depth of target) is 17.2 yards. I'll probably stack both Williams and Allen with Herbert.
Or you could choose to save a few bucks and go with TE Hunter Henry. The Broncos are limiting the damage once the TE catches the ball as tight ends are averaging a sixth best in the league 9.72 yards per catch against them. However, they are also allowing allowing a catch rate of over 76%, which is the highest in the league. Given that Henry is averaging seven targets a game, he could be an option that allows you to spend up elsewhere.
However, if you really want to spend elsewhere, might I suggest an extremely affordable "runback" option of Albert Okwuegbunam? "A-OK" as I like to call him was pretty quiet to start the season, but has exploded the last couple weeks. He caught all seven of his targets last week for sixty yards. Given that the Chargers are giving up a mediocre fantasy points per game to tights ends of nearly 14 points, A-OK could be a sneaky runback option that helps you take down a GPP or two in week 8!
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