RADIO
We've all been staring at both "red states" and "blue states" all week, so I promise that my Week 9 GPP DFS stacks will not only be politics-free, but I won't even consider any "red" or "blue" teams either!
I'm avoiding the chalky "red" of the Cardinals, Chiefs, and Falcons as well as the obvious blue of the Chargers and Titans. And the Bills are both blue and red, but they too will be bypassed because are they are my favorite chalk stack of the week. And I won't be including Pittsburgh either as they are just too gosh darn obvious as well.
So who's left? You'll have to scan below to see, but big hint: I'm going with an orange, black, and another black.
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Week 9 NFL DFS Stacks: The "Obvious Match-up" Stack
Denver Broncos
Let's start with the least exciting part of this stack--the WRs. I do like both KJ Hamler and Tim Patrick. But I'm having trouble picturing a scenario where both have a good game. If for example, Patrick is out again, I like Hamler to be worth the start. But instead let's focus on the Broncos current WR1, Jerry Jeudy (you realize how deep this WR corps is going to be when Sutton comes back next year?). Jeudy is coming off of one of his better games this season, setting personal highs with ten targets and 73 receiving yards. However, that might be the floor of what we can expect this week against the Falcons. The Falcons are giving up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing WRs this year. Atlanta has not had their bye yet, but they have already allowed 14 WRs to secure a top-40 weekly finish. Think Jeudy might have a good week this week?
Yes, the Atlanta Falcons have been better the last two weeks, but they remain the best match-up for any quarterback this week. Despite holding Bridgewater and Stafford to relatively low totals the last couple of weeks, the Falcons are still giving up a league-worst 34.55 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Besides a dream match-up Lock has lately resembled far more what John Elway had in mind for him than Lock did at the start of the season. Lock is coming off a three-touchdown game. It was a rocky start of the season for Lock, but I do think he bounces back to a number resembling his rookie year when he averaged nearly two touchdowns a game.
Plus, I know I would like to see this again as it hasn't grown old for me yet...
Drew Lock's "just threw the game-winning TD" dance ??
(via @thecheckdown)pic.twitter.com/qMuNB4DqFh
— ESPN (@espn) November 2, 2020
I've been promoting Denver players all week, whether it is my value plays or my rankings. But my favorite play might be the cheap end of the stack, Albert Okwuegbunam.
I call him "A-Ok" but if you want to refer to him formally his surname is pronounced O-coo-WAY-boo-nahm. However you refer to him, you had better learn who he is. He hasn't quite picked up the volume you want to see, but he is becoming extremely efficient on a per snap basis, and some of it is not even showing up in the box score:
Albert Okwuegbunam played just 16 snaps Sunday (25% of the offense's total), but seemed to make nearly every one of them impactful. Drew two PI flags on the last drive, both of which extended the drive. And, of course, the skying TD catch that began the fourth-quarter comeback.
— Nick Kosmider (@NickKosmider) November 2, 2020
So yes, he is coming off his first touchdown and his third game in a row of at least six DKFPs. That is still a decent value given his low price tag. And as I mentioned above, Atlanta is not great at defending the pass. But their inability to keep quarterbacks in check extends to TEs as well. The Falcons are giving up the most fantasy points to TEs per game as well.
This appetizing match-up gives him a very enticing ceiling. But even his floor is attractive given his high per snap efficiency. How's this for eye-opening? Albert Okwuegbunam has run just 15 and 18 pass routes the past two weeks but has accrued 13 targets (39.4%) on those routes. For context, George Kittle leads all qualifying tight ends in target rate per route for the season at 28.5%. When you're beating one of the top players at your position by almost 50% rate, that's pretty good!
I wouldn't play Okwuegbunam in cash games, but his high snap efficiency makes him a nice piece of a week 9 GPP stack.
Week 9 NFL DFS Stacks: The "Their Defense Ain't as Good as You Think" Stack
Las Vegas Raiders
I was not having a great week but another football writer posted this early in the week and it made me nostalgic and smile...
I swear John Facenda could make reading the ingredients on a cap of soup riveting! Anyway, the point is the Raiders were on my mind. I wanted to play them in DFS this week, but I couldn't do that. They're playing the Chargers, who are a really good defense! Of course, never make a decision based on what you think you know. So I looked it up.
Where do you think the Chargers Defense ranks in passing yards per game? Top ten? Nope. Top half at least, right? Still wrong. The Chargers are actually giving up 364 passing yards per game. That's the 18th best or 14th worst if you prefer, in the league. It's not Seattle territory, but it's closer to the bottom than the top. Captain Obvious statements aside, the Chargers pass defense is probably worse than you thought.
And the Chargers are particularly generous when it comes to giving up fantasy points to quarterbacks. They are giving up the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, which means we definitely need to consider Derek Carr this week. Especially given his low price on both sites. I know last week's game doesn't inspire much confidence, but the aforementioned "Autumn Wind" was gusting at 50 MPH last week. I don't think Aaron Rodgers could have thrown for 200 yards in those conditions. Throw in the fact that Carr still has 14 TDs in seven games, I will gladly take two touchdowns at his price this week.
With an over/under of 53.5, there should be plenty of points scored in this game. And while Waller has already matched his touchdown total from last year, don't be surprised if he's one keeping the scoreboard operator busy. He's certainly getting his share of targets. He is sixth among all NFL players with a 27.3% target share. That mark leads all tight ends with Travis Kelce's 23.4% the next highest. Waller should be looking at double-digit targets this weekend. Presuming that happens, even if he doesn't score, Waller should still easily see at least 15 PPR fantasy points this week against the Chargers. And his ceiling is the number one TE this weekend.
Henry Ruggs in the meantime has not had as much success as Waller when it comes to finding the endzone. He does have one rushing TD but has yet to catch an NFL touchdown pass. Ruggs has a nice ceiling but his low floor has me pivoting to Hunter Renfrow. Renfrow has 42 receiving yards or more in four of his last five games and the one exception was this past weekend when he scored the Raiders touchdown. Also tilting in Renfrow's favor is that with the Chargers having traded slot corner, Desmond King, Renfrow will now likely be guarded by second-year undrafted free agent Tevaughn Campbell. Let's simply say the autumn wind is not the only thing that blows. Waller will likely see plenty of ownership even as a one-off. But it's your ownership of Renfrow that should garner you the big money.
NFL Week 9 DFS Stacks: The "Really?" Stack
Jacksonville Jaguars
I know, someone out there is going to say, "Wait a sec, Teal is a shade of blue, and aren't the Jags uniforms teal?". Well, believe it or not, a number of years ago the Jags made teal only their alternate uniforms and preferring to go with "the no-nonsense black". So get out of here with that argument before I make you "black and blue"!
Regardless of color, I really like stacking Jacksonville this week in my GPPs. It starts with the thrift store price on the Jags starting quarterback, Jake Luton. He's quite inexpensive on FanDuel at $6500, but he's ludicrously priced on DraftKings at $4900. With the $2700 you save by going with Luton over say Russell Wilson, you can upgrade from say Russel Gage to Julio Jones. Luton does not need to do all that to turn a profit.
And with Houston coming to town, I think Luton will turn a profit. Houston is giving up the 7th most fantasy points to quarterbacks and that was before All-Pro Whitney Mercilus was added to the Covid-19 list earlier this week:
Because of contact tracing, LBs Whitney Mercilus and Dylan Cole will join OLB Jacob Martin on COVID-19 reserve list and none will play against Jaguars. They must test negative for 5 days in a row.
— John McClain (@McClain_on_NFL) November 5, 2020
Obviously, the Texans' middle line of defense will be easier to attack. Yes, Luton is a rookie, but he's not some bum off the streets. Luton, along with Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Fields were the only three FBS quarterbacks with 21 or more touchdowns and three or fewer INTs in 2019. And according to a Jags senior writer, Luton has "a better arm" than Minshew and thinks that Luton "will throw downfield more". I don't need much more at Luton's crazy low salary, I'm buying it.
And I like Luton's WRs to have strong games as well. Houston has allowed the third-most fantasy points per target to WRs. Some of that can be attributed to the Texans giving up a league-worst 71.9% completion rate to WRs. I'll take the floor that comes with D.J. Chark who caught over 70 passes to break through the 1K receiving yards milestone to go with eight touchdowns last year. He's been a little off the pace this year, but I think he gets back on track with this game. But if you want to limit your exposure to the Jags WRs, I'd save some salary and pivot down to Keelan Cole. Cole has very quietly become the 35th best PPR wide receiver so far this year. Cole has seen at least five targets in six of seven games, making him a little more match-up proof.
Of course, we haven't discussed a "run back" option yet but if I'm stacking the Jags, I am definitely including Will Fuller as a run-back option. Fuller has scored in each of his last five games and is averaging 17 DKFPs per game this season. I have talked about Houston's questionable defense, but Jacksonville's is even worse, having given up nearly 282 passing yards per game. In a game with an over/under of over 50 points, I want to get as many pieces as I can. If you can grab the right high price guys with the savings you get from stacking Jacksonville, there's absolutely no reason you shouldn't be able to take down a GPP or two in week 9!
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