RADIO
We have made it to Week 15 of the NFL season, and we have some injury news to monitor, and for now, no serious COVID issues outside of the Ravens wide receivers on our hands. We have an 11 game slate thanks to two Saturday games. There are currently four-game totals over 50 points and four games with spreads of seven or more, and three of those four are double-digit spreads. There appear to be some lopsided games while also having some potential shootouts to target.
There is a ton of value when looking at the Week 15 slate from a cash game perspective. For cash, this week, it may be another week to pay up at quarterback with the likes of Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, and Ryan Tannehill all having nice matchups. When it comes to running backs, you will likely lock in Fournette and then add some studs or mid-tier options as there is a lot to like with Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, and James Robinson. Lastly, at wide receiver and tight end, there is a ton of value to be had and will be the place besides defense to save some cash this week.
This article will take a look at some of the value plays for each week of the NFL. However, when you look at value plays for GPP, you are swinging for the fences somewhat. Here I will be focusing on cash games and the necessity for slightly more safety as you are just looking to finish in the top half or so of the competition. Therefore, we are looking for cheaper players who should see a decent workload, pass attempts, targets, or carriers. Let's take a look at the cash value plays for Week 15 of the 2020 NFL season.
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Week 15 Quarterback Cash Game Value Plays
Jalen Hurts, PHI at ARI | DK: $5,900, FD: $6,900
Hurts is coming off one heck of a first career start and finds himself in another great matchup this week. Last week Hurts passed for 167 yards while also running for 106 yards on his way to over 20 fantasy points. This week he faces a Cardinals Defense who ranks 13 on the season versus quarterbacks allowing close to 20 fantasy points per game. They do not get run on often, but it has been a weakness for the Cardinals' defense as they are allowing over six yards per carry to opposing quarterbacks this season. The Eagles have an implied team total over 21 and are six-point dogs this weekend, so they will once again be relying heavily on Hurts and his legs to make things happen.
Philip Rivers, IND vs HOU | DK: $5,900, FD: $7,100
Rivers may be a boring play without a massive ceiling, but he is the steady piece you are looking for at a discount for cash games. He has scored 18 or more fantasy points in five straight games while throwing at least two touchdowns in four straight. Rivers is just two weeks removed from throwing 285 yards and two touchdowns against this same Texans Defense. Rivers will be going up against the Texans defense that has allowed over 300 yards passing and nearly two touchdowns per game over the last four games to opposing quarterbacks. Rivers is inline for another solid game for cash lineups this week facing this porous Texans defense.
Week 15 Running Back Cash Game Value Plays
Leonard Fournette, TB at ATL | DK: $4,500, FD: $5,500
With Ronald Jones being placed on the COVID list, it is Fournette time in Tampa Bay. He has already been announced the starter and comes at an amazing discount this week. The Bucs have been making a point to run the ball more of late, and that was the case last week, the first game after a bye, where they ran the ball 18 times with Jones. Fournette should step into the same role and also utilize his pass-catching upside. He should be in line for 15 plus touches against a Falcons Defense that has been better of late but still gives up some fantasy production to opposing running backs. Fournette will be chalky in cash games and rightfully so as the Bucs are near touchdown favorites with an implied team total over 28. Eat the chalk value and move on with your cash lineups this week.
D'Andre Swift, DET at TEN | DK: $6,400, FD: $6,700
Swift finally returned in Week 14 and picked up where he left off on only 11 touches. He had seven carries and four receptions on five targets on his way to 15 fantasy points. The Lions were chasing the Packers all week, and they did not want to overload Swift. Even with the 11 touches, he out-touched Adrian Peterson, remaining the RB1 for the Lions. This week Swift is expected back at full strength against a Titans Defense that ranks 26 on the season and 21 over the last four games versus running backs. They allow only 77 yards on the ground but are being beaten through the air to the tune of seven receptions and nearly 60 yards. The Titans are allowing well over 20 fantasy points per game to opposing backs over the last four games. The Lions are double-digit dogs this week, which may hamper his rushing attempts, but he should once again be targeted often in the backfield and pay off for your cash games. His value may become even better if Matthew Stafford misses the game and the Lions start Chase Daniels, who may dump it off a lot.
Jeff Wilson Jr., SF at DAL | DK: $5,100, FD: $5,800
There is an excellent chance that Raheem Mostert will miss Sunday's game versus the Cowboys, and that should open up a lot more touches for Wilson. In previous games this season where Mostert missed time, Wilson scored 35 and 22 fantasy points. He takes full advantage of his role. In those two games, Wilson received 35% and 46% of the carries and over 55% of the red-zone carries. He also combined for four touchdowns in those two games. If that was not good enough, he has an amazing matchup versus the Cowboys Defense this week. Dallas ranks 30 over the last four weeks versus the run, allowing nearly 150 yards on the ground, over six receptions, over a touchdown, and over 30 fantasy points per game to opposing backs. Tevin Coleman and Jerick McKinnon are available. Wilson should be in line for the heavy workload and, more importantly, the goal-line work for your cash game lineups.
Week 15 Wide Receiver Cash Game Value Plays
Corey Davis, TEN vs DET | DK: $5,800, FD: $6,800
Just another week with Davis being underpriced for your cash game pleasures. He left a sour taste in DFS player's mouths last week with only three catches (on his three targets). Previous to last week, he was a double-digit point-scoring machine and should be back on track for another strong fantasy week this Sunday. He will be facing a Lions Defense that ranks 32 versus opposing receivers over the last four weeks. They allow over 235 receiving yards, over a touchdown, and over 50 fantasy points per game to receivers. Look for Davis to bounce back this week at a friendly price point in cash.
T.Y. Hilton, IND vs HOU | DK: $5,500, FD: $6,800
It took till Week 12, but Hilton has finally returned to his WR1 billing for the Colts. Over the last three games has at least five targets, 80 receiving yards, and a touchdown on his way to 18+ fantasy points per game. Rivers has found a liking, with Hilton giving him a 22% target share and 25% red-zone share over those three games. This weekend's other fun factor is Hilton will be facing the Texans, a team he has always had great success against. Just two weeks ago, he caught eight of his 11 targets for 110 yards with a touchdown for 28 fantasy points. The Colts are touchdown favorites with an implied team total of 29 this week against a Texans defense, which ranks 24 versus wide receivers over the last four games. Hilton should be popular this week and for good reasons.
Lynn Bowden Jr., MIA vs NE | DK: $3,600, FD: $5,000
Talk about value; well, here you have it with Bowden. The Dolphins receiving core is decimated with DeVante Parker and Jerami Grant being injured. Last week is basically Bowden and Mack Hollins leading the charge. Mike Gesicki is also banged up and could miss Sunday's game. If that's the case, then Bowden is an even stronger value. Two weeks ago, Bowden's workload increased when he saw four targets, but last week with the injuries, it really blew up with seven catches on nine targets. He was in on 59 snaps last week (71%) and accounted for 21% of the air yards, 20% of the targets, but no red-zone looks as that are Gesicki's territory. The Dolphins are favored Sunday versus the Patriots with a 22 point implied team total, and if the injury news flows how it appears, then Bowden is a lock for cash this week.
Keep an eye on HOU and another possible Chad Hansen week if he starts.
Week 15 Tight End Cash Game Value Plays
Irv Smith Jr., MIN vs CHI | DK: $3,600, FD: $5,400
Smith has been a target of ours when healthy this season. The problem has been that health. Since Week 9, he has only played in three games. He was solid in those three games with two double-digit fantasy point games and at least one touchdown in each. Kirk Cousins seems to like Smith, giving the tight end a 12% target share in those three games and a more impressive 30% red-zone target share. Smith finds himself in a favorable matchup this weekend versus the Bears, ranked 28 versus tight ends over the last four games. They allow over six catches, over 78 yards, and over 15 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. Kyle Rudolph is questionable, and if he misses Sunday's game, Smith is a near lock in cash.
Cole Kmet, CHI at MIN | DK: $3,000, FD: $5,100
We were all over the Kmet value last week, and he came through; why stop now for a very slight price increase? Kmet was targeted seven times for the second straight week. He now has a 15% target share and near 16% red-zone target share over the last two weeks. He will be going up against a Vikings Defense that ranks 13 over the last four games versus tight ends allowing over 10 fantasy points per game. It is not a smash spot like the Texans game, but the volume should be there once again for Kmet, making him cash game viable.
Will Dissly and Adam Shaheen are a few other punt options in cash based on injury news.
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