RADIO
We have made it to Week 16 of the NFL season, which means we get some Saturday football. There are three games on tap for Saturday. All three games have an implied game total of 47.5 or higher, and two of the three games have spreads of four points or less. Two of the teams are road favorites as well. According to the powers in the desert, we should have some nice football on Saturday that could result in some nice fantasy results.
There is some nice value when looking at the Week 16 Saturday slate. The quarterback position is pretty cut and dry; play either Tom Brady or Kyler Murray or save some money to Tua or Matt Stafford. The running back position is a position to save this week potentially. There could be some nice value in the mid-tier ranges with some punt options discussed below as well. The wide receiver always has options across the price ranges and paying up for a couple of Tampa Bay studs, or DeAndre Hopkins makes a lot of sense this week. Lastly, the tight end position is about paying up for Darren Waller, finding a tight end to complete the stack, or punting. This slate looks to be a fun one and has many different ways to build than last week's two-game slate.
This article will take a look at some of the value plays for each week of the NFL. However, when you look at value plays for GPP, you are swinging for the fences somewhat. Here I will be focusing on cash games and the necessity for slightly more safety as you are just looking to finish in the top half or so of the competition. Therefore, we are looking for cheaper players who should see a decent workload, pass attempts, targets, or carriers. Let's look at the cash value plays for the Week 16 Saturday slate of the 2020 NFL season.
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Week 16 Quarterback Value Plays
Tua Tagovailoa, MIA at LV | DK: $5,400, FD: $7,200
Tua comes into Saturday's game playing some solid football and has been quite the steady eddy in fantasy production. Since taking over as starter Tua has scored 14 or more fantasy points in five of six games, 20 or more in back-to-back weeks. He will be facing a Raiders defense that ranks 25 on the season versus the quarterback and 20 over the last two weeks. They allow over 230 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, and over 20 points per game over the last four games. The Dolphins are three-point favorites and have an implied team-total over 25. Look for Tua to have another solid fantasy week as he continues to get comfortable in the Dolphins' offense, along with the Dolphins looking to continue their winning ways as they push towards the playoffs.
Week 16 Running Back Value Plays
Salvon Ahmed, MIA at LV | DK: $5,600, FD: $6,600
If you do not want to attack the Raiders through the air, then taking the savings with the Dolphins running backs is the way to go. If the oddsmakers are correct and the game stays close, then the running game of the Dolphins should flourish. Ahmed has stepped in for Myles Gaskin over recent weeks (if Gaskins returns, he is a solid value as well, hurting Ahmed at the same time), turning in some strong fantasy performances. In his last three games, Ahmed has 20 or more carries in two games, 17 or more touches in all three games, and 12 or more fantasy points in all three games. He faces a Raiders defense this Saturday that ranks 28 in the NFL over the last four weeks versus running backs, allowing nearly 150 yards rushing and 30 fantasy points per game. Keep an eye on whoever is the lead back for the Dolphins, as they should be in line for a nice fantasy game.
Chase Edmonds, AZ vs SF | DK: $4,600, FD: $5,800
Sure the Cardinals use two running backs, which makes fantasy tough, but in recent weeks both have been productive, or at least Edmonds has returned value. Edmonds is cheaper this week, as usual, than his teammate Kenyan Drake, making him the value back I want to target. Edmonds workload has also been consistent in recent weeks, with at least six carries and five targets in each of the last four games, resulting in seven or more fantasy points in each game. Edmonds will face a Niners defense that has been good versus the run this season, but injuries are catching up, and that showed last week as they allowed Tony Pollard to run for 69 yards and two scores and make six receptions for 63 yards. The Cardinals have an implied team total of 27, and both backs should get their fair share of touches versus a beat-up Niners team. Most will target Drake, making Edmonds a sneaky tournament value.
Week 16 Wide Receiver Value Plays
Marvin Jones Jr., DET vs TB | DK: $4,900, FD: $6,800
Jones can be a tilting play on some weeks, but in the end, he produces for the fantasy players that rostered him. Since he became the lead receiver in Week 7, Jones has double-digit fantasy production in seven of nine games, six or more targets in eight of nine games, and six touchdowns over those nine games. Jones has been in on 90% of the snaps, receiving 23% of the targets and 25% of the red-zone targets over that stretch as well. He will be facing a Bucs defense that ranks 32 versus wide receivers over the last four weeks allowing over 250 receiving yards and nearly two touchdowns per game to opposing receivers. The Lions are nine-point underdogs and should be thrown early and often, meaning Jones should see many targets once again and pay off his discounted price tag.
Lynn Bowden Jr., MIA at LV | DK: $3,900, FD: $5,300
Bowden was one of my cash game locks last week, and he did not disappoint. If DeVante Parker misses another game, then go right back to the Bowden value. He is the Dolphins possession receiver, playing out of the slot, and over the last two weeks has seen at least seven targets, hauling in at least six, on his way to back to back double-digit fantasy point games. Bowden will be facing a Raiders defense that has allowed 1.5 touchdowns and over 175 receiving yards to WR over the last nine games. Bowden is only in play if Parker is out again, so keep an eye out for the weekly practice reports.
Scotty Miller, TB at DET | DK: $3,100, FD: $4,800
If you are looking for a mega punt play this week, look no further than Miller for the Buccaneers. The Bucs have many weapons in the receiving core, making Miller the fourth wide receiver and likely fifth opinion after Rob Gronkowski. Over the last two weeks, Miller's workload has increased some as he has seen two or more targets in each game and has five or more fantasy points in each game. Miller also makes for a sneaky play as the Bucs have an implied team total of 31.5, the highest on the slate, so Tom Brady should be slinging it all over the field. He should be slinging it against a Lions Defense that ranks 31 versus opposing wide receivers over the last four games. They are allowing over 215 receiving yards and over 50 fantasy points to opposing receivers over that stretch. Miller is a tournament-only play but is one of the better tournament punts if you want to have multiple high-priced studs.
Week 16 Tight End Value Plays
Dan Arnold, AZ vs SF | DK: $3,200, FD: $5,000
Arnold has found his way into fantasy lineups from time to time over the last few weeks with his steady production. A production that includes three or more targets and three total touchdowns over the last four games. Over the last four games, he has seen an 11% target share but, more importantly, a 17% red-zone target share. Kyler Murray moves it down the field with his wideouts and then finds the big man when it matters most. The Niners defense has been good on the season versus tight ends, but just last week allowed a red-zone touchdown to Shultz. The discounts at tight end are not great this week. Many will also target Jordan Reed, who is in play, but give me Arnold on a team with a 27 point implied team total.
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