RADIO
Week 1 of the NFL season is finally upon us, which means I am back with your weekly cash game values for DraftKings and FanDuel. Each week I will bring the plays I feel are the top values for your cash games based on price, projected roster percentages, or a combination of different things. In Week 1, we have some definite value that should be super chalky thanks to prices being released a month ago. However, a lot has changed due to injuries or just adjustments to depth charts that will open up a ton of value.
For Week 1, it will be easy to get some of the big dogs like Christian McCaffery, Alvin Kamara, and Dalvin Cook in your lineups. Heck, you can even get some big receivers like DeVante Adams, Stefon Diggs, and Travis Kelce if you so choose. There are definite places to save money at each position, but finding value at defense will be the first part of building the cash lineups. Then it's deciding if you want to pay up for two running backs, a running back and receiver, two receivers, a tight end, etc. So many ways to build to start the season. Pay attention to news throughout the week and potential pivots that can be made.
This article will take a look at some of the value plays for each week of the NFL. However, when you look at value plays for GPP, you are somewhat swinging for the fences. Here I will be focusing on cash games and the necessity for slightly more safety as you are just looking to finish in the top half or so of the competition. Therefore, we are looking for cheaper players who should see a decent workload, be that pass attempts, targets, or carries. So, let's take a look at the cash value plays for Week 1 of the 2020 NFL season.
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Week 1 Quarterback Cash Game Value Plays
Sam Darnold, CAR vs. NYJ | DK: $5,000, FD: $6,500
What better week for a revenge narrative than week 1. The Jets head into Carolina and face their former quarterback in Sam Darnold. Darnold has obviously had a rough go with the Jets, but now with a new team, in a better situation, with some great weapons, he may finally have the chance to succeed. He will have the ability to dump it off to Christian McCaffrey. Pass it to Robbie Anderson and Terrace Marshall Jr. He can even tuck it and run for fantasy points this week.
All options will be on the table versus the Jets, who have tried to improve but are still the Jets and will bring that bad defense to Carolina in week 1. Last season the Jets' defense was 30th in football over the last nine games allowing 2.4 passing touchdowns per game. They ranked 31st in football, allowing 298.4 passing yards per game over the last nine games. No matter how you break it down, the Jets' defense was atrocious versus the pass last season. The Panthers are four-point home favorites this week with a 24 point team total. Darnold brings a strong floor into Sunday's action with some serious upside if the Panthers stomp a mudhole in the Jets to make a point to start the season.
Baker Mayfield, CLE at KC | DK: $5,900, FD: $7,100
Unlike Darnold, Mayfield doesn't play a soft defense, but he does have a matchup that should have him running and throwing all game long. Mayfield will take on a Chiefs offense that allowed 2.3 passing touchdowns, nearly 250 passing yards, and on average nearly 24 fantasy points per game over the last four games last season.
Cleveland also showed strong tendencies when playing as underdogs last season. They threw the ball 14% more of the time. Mayfield also had his biggest games as an underdog, average 22 fantasy points per game as an underdog, and averaged nearly 28 fantasy points per game in high-scoring games. Well, this Sunday should be a high-scoring game where the Browns are underdogs. The Browns are 5.5 point underdogs in a game with a total of 54.5. The Browns should be playing from behind most of the game and trying to play keep up. This all lines up for Mayfield's potentially big game, at worst, allowing for a strong cash floor with massive upside. Mayfield obviously makes for a great tournament play and an awesome cash game play at a discount this week.
Week 1 Running Back Cash Game Value Plays
James Robinson, JAX at HOU | DK: $6,400, FD: $5,900
Robinson enters week 1 as the lead back for the Jaguars after a season-ending injury to Travis Etienne. Robinson should be in for a large workload with that lead back roll, similar to what we saw week in and week out last season. Last year, Robinson played 14 games for the Jaguars, rushing for 1070 yards while catching 49 passes for 344 yards. He scored a total of 10 touchdowns and also averaged nearly 15 fantasy points per game. Sounds like a pretty solid cash game floor to me.
It gets better as he faces the Texans. A Texans team that brings one of the worst defenses in football to the field this week. Last year the Texans allowed 1.3 rushing touchdowns and 141.7 rushing yards per game over the last nine games. The Jags will be starting rookie quarterback Trevor Lawerence, bringing more of a workload to Robinson's plate. Lastly, the Jaguars are three-point road favorites with a 24,5 point implied team total. The Jaguars ran the ball 31% more in games where they were favored last season. Robinson is one of my favorite values period this week, especially in cash. Lock him in for the savings and enjoy one of the better fantasy floors you will find this week.
Mike Davis, ATL vs. PHI | DK: $5,400 FD: $6,200
The Falcons and Eagles game should be a back and forth offensive bonanza this weekend, and Davis should be a huge part of the offensive game plan for the Falcons. Davis is the lead back, without a ton of opposition in the running back room to take touches away. Davis proved himself at times last year with the Panthers when McCaffrey missed the season with an injury. He had five games with 15 or more fantasy points and finished the season averaging nearly 10 fantasy points per game. He brings the ability to run 15 or so times a game with a great ability to be a factor in the passing game.
The Falcons are three-point home favorites this Sunday, with an implied team total close to 26. They should be active early and often offensively against the Eagles. Matt Ryan will gladly pass the ball to Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts, but he also has no problem dropping it off to his running backs and letting them run wild. Most will not roster Davis this week, and there may be better cash game options, but when looking for a cash value, Davis definitely sits near the top of the running back options this week.
Damien Harris, NE vs. MIA | DK: $5,200, FD: $5,800
When looking for value running backs, it is all about the floor. Well, the starting running back for the Patriots in a game where they should want to run the ball early and often should be a popular pick. The Patriots are starting rookie quarterback Mac Jones and as good as he may be, they still want to limit the pressure on Jones and could use Harris and the running game to lighten the load. Last season Harris also established himself as a trustworthy back later in the season by carrying the ball 10 or more times in nine of 10 games and scoring 10+ fantasy points in four of his last seven games. Now, he's the lone lead back in New England which should make things even better.
He will take on a Dolphins' defense that was quite stingy against the run to end the season but did allow 39% more fantasy points to running backs when on the road. They also allowed 13% more rush attempts when on the road last season. This week the Patriots are three-point home favorites with a team total of 23.5. They should be pounding the rock early and often, and it should lead to a great floor for Harris this week. Most won't look to roster Harris, but in cash games, he is definitely in play.
Week 1 Wide Receiver Cash Game Value Plays
Tee Higgins, CIN vs. MIN | DK: $4,700, FD: $6,000
Sure there are three mouths to feed in Cincinnati now, but Higgins should still get his. With and without Joe Burrow last season, Higgins put up monster numbers, especially in PPR formats. He averaged 13.4 fantasy points per game on the back of 67 receptions and nearly 1000 receiving yards. From Week 3 to Week 10 last season, Higgins had at least 10 fantasy points per game. Higgins was as reliable as they come, and many of those performances had some awful backup quarterback play.
Heading into Week 1, Higgins has his good buddy Burrow back under center, and the addition of Ja'Marr Chase should help take some added defensive pressure away. The Bengals are three-point underdogs at home this weekend with an implied team total of 22. They should be trying to keep up all day, and Higgins will provide a nice safety net for Burrow, who should be under pressure all game. Lastly, Higgins averaged over 10 fantasy points per game at home last season. Everything points to another solid game from Higgins this week, and the DFS price tags are not accounting for this.
Michael Pittman Jr., IND vs. SEA | DK: $4,100, FD: $5,300
Pittman made some very positive steps in his rookie season and looks to take things to the next level in 2021. This Sunday could be the beginning of a mega break-out season. With T.Y. Hilton missing a few weeks with a neck injury, Pittman should be the main target for new Colts quarterback Andy Dalton. Pittman caught 40 passes for 503 yards last season with three games with double-digit fantasy points.
This week, he will be the WR1 as the Colts take on the Seahawks at home as three-point underdogs. The Seattle defense is not a defense to be scared of on the road, and that showed last year as they allowed 13% more pass attempts on the road and 11% more fantasy points to WR on the road. The Colts are depleted in the secondary, which should help the Seahawks' offense move up and down the field. This should result in the Colts playing keep up, resulting in a ton of targets for Pittman. Enjoy his discount while you can, as he has a monster game this Sunday for the Colts and your fantasy teams.
Corey Davis, NYJ at CAR | DK: $4,900, FD: $5,800
Davis had a strong 2020 season with the Titans, racking up nearly 1000 yards and averaging 14 fantasy points per game. Next, he heads to the Jets, trying to expand upon his success. All reports out of Jets' camp have been great, and the connection he is building with rookie quarterback Zach Wilson appears to be going in the right direction. He heads into Week 1 as the WR1 with Jamison Crowder out with COVID.
Davis and the Jets head into Carolina as four-point underdogs. Meaning they should be playing from behind and throwing a lot. The Panthers' defense was very up and down last season, finding themselves in their fair share of shootouts. They ranked 25th in the NFL over the last nine games allowing 1.3 receiving touchdowns, and that should hopefully carry over this weekend. Davis brings a nice safety valve while also a serious threat for the rookie Wilson and should get peppered with target after target. Expect a BIG game from Davis this Sunday, bringing a great cash game floor to the table.
Week 1 Tight End Cash Game Value Plays
Tyler Conklin, MIN at CIN | DK: $2,900, FD: $5,100
There is nothing too sexy about playing Conklin outside of the outstanding value he can bring. The TE position can easily punt when the situation dictates or pays for the goats like Travis Kelce. Conklin is obviously the latter, the value part. Conklin should still be the man with Irv Smith Jr. out for the season and the newly acquired Chris Herndon not up to speed with the Vikings. He showed signs of being a cash game stud at the end of last season. Racking up three or more receptions in each of the last four games while putting up seven or more fantasy points. He will get his fair share of targets on Sunday and make the perfect punt in cash games.
Austin Hooper, CLE at KC | DK: $4,000, FD: $4,700
If looking for a mid-priced option, then look no further than Hooper. I already mentioned Mayfield as a value quarterback, Jarvis Landry could even be a value WR, but Hooper makes a heck of a value at TE, especially on FD. Hooper finished last season on a tear. He had six red-zone targets in his last three games while also scoring double-digit fantasy points four of his last five games. He will face a Chiefs' defense that gets torched by tight ends, allowing nearly one touchdown and 78 receiving yards per game to the tight end over the last nine games. The Browns will be throwing all game, and that means Hooper will see his fair share of targets, especially in the red zone.
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