RADIO
Week 17 of the NFL season is in the books, and what a week it was. First, we saw the Titans eliminate the Dolphins in dominating fashion while also putting themselves into the driver's seat to win the #1 seed in the AFC. Next, the Bears and Patriots dismantled their opponents on their way to easy wins as well. Next, the Bucs had to fight back but picked up the win versus the Jets while the Raiders beat the Colts on a last-minute field goal to keep their playoff hopes alive. Lastly, the Bengals and Chiefs had a heck of a back and forth game which saw Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase go nuts and pick up the win. It was another wild weekend around the NFL, and we should have more on tap for the final week of the NFL season.
For Week 18, we will stick with the usual cash gameplan of looking for a solid floor and going from there, especially when it comes to value plays. Value this week is quite spread out. The popular moves will be paying up for Jonathan Taylor and possibly Cooper Kupp as usual. Then there will be the decision of paying up at the tight end as the value is not that great this week. There is a ton of value at WR, decent value at RB, and a few options at QB, which will make paying up for a couple of big plays an easy option. Keep an eye on the ever-changing news as more value could open up with potential COVID issues as well as teams resting players for the playoffs (like the Bengals).
This article will look at some of the value plays for each week of the NFL. However, when you look at value plays for GPP, you are somewhat swinging for the fences. Here, I will be focusing on cash games and the necessity for slightly more safety as you are just looking to finish in the top half or so of the competition. Therefore, we are looking for cheaper players who should see a decent workload, passing attempts, targets, or carries. So, let's look at the cash value plays for Week 18 of the 2021 NFL season.
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Quarterback DFS Value Plays - Week 18 Cash Games
Taysom Hill, NO at ATL | DK: $6,200, FD: $7,700
The really "cheap" plays are iffy now with Justin Fields hitting the COVID IR, so Taysom seems to be the value of the week. Hill is coming off a week where he threw for 222 and a touchdown while also running for 45 yards. Hill has scored 17 or more fantasy points in three of his last four games and has five total touchdowns in those five games. Hill has also completed at least 13 passes and carried the ball at least 11 times in each of the last four games. Hill's rushing ability brings an excellent floor to your cash lineups, and that should not change this week versus the Falcons.
Hill takes on a Falcons defense that ranks 29th on the season versus opposing quarterbacks and 17th over the last four weeks. The Falcons have been a bit better against the pass of late but are allowing more rushing yards to quarterbacks, which bodes well for Hill. The Saints have to win to keep their postseason hopes alive. They are 4.5 point road favorites with a 22.5 point implied team total. Hill should run wild again this week while also throwing to Marquez Callaway and company. He makes for excellent cash gameplay this week.
Longshots - With all the crazy COVID issues and who is playing and not playing, keep an eye on the value with Case Keenum and Tim Boyle. They aren't the most attractive names, but they are incredibly cheap and bring a 15+ point fantasy upside to Sunday's action.
Running Back DFS Value Plays - Week 18 Cash Games
Elijah Mitchell, SF at LAR | DK: $6,000, FD: $8,000
Mitchell may not be the best value on FD, but he is an excellent value on DK. The Niners are in a must-win situation, and they should once again rely on their run game. Mitchell has been banged up of late but returned last week and carried the ball 21 times for 119 yards on his way to 24 PPR points. That gives Mitchell four straight games with 20+ touches and 17+ PPR points in three consecutive games that he has played in. If Mitchell can't go this Sunday, look into Jeff Wilson Jr. (DK $5,300/FD $6,000).
Mitchell will take on a Rams defense that has been good this season and allows running backs to succeed. Over the last four games, they are ranked 14th versus opposing backs. They allow an average of 67 rushing yards but, more importantly, allow 5.5 receptions for nearly 40 yards and a score. Running backs are scoring over 22 PPR points over the last four games. Look for Mitchell or Wilson to have a heavy workload on their way to cash game goodness.
D'Onta Foreman, TEN at HOU | DK: $5,700, FD: $6,900
If the Titans win this week, they lock up the #1 seed, which means they should be playing their starters for most if not all of the game. Insert Foreman, who has been a workhorse back of late for the Titans. He has 15 or more touches in four of his last five games and 19 or more carries in three of his previous five games. In those four games, Foreman has scored at least 14 PPR points. He will take on a Texans defense this week that he can take advantage of, which bodes even better for cash games.
The Texans rank 28th on the season versus opposing backs and dead last over the last four games. Over the previous four games, they allow an average of 109 rushing yards, over a touchdown, and 30+ PPR points per game to opposing backs. With the Titans being 10 point favorites with a 26.5 point implied team total, expect a lot of Foreman on Sunday. He makes for a great value at the running back position in your cash games.
Ke'Shawn Vaughn, TB vs. CAR | DK: $5,300, FD: $5,900
Vaughn may be a bit risky for cash, but he could or at least should be the lead back for the Bucs with Ronald Jones dealing with an injury. Vaughn received eight carries (10 total touches) last week, and seven carries the previous week. Those were with Jones involved, and he could be out of the way this week. Jones had ten carries last week before leaving the game, which would be nice for Vaughn to soak up. Vaughn also had two red one attempts, which led the Bucs.
Vaughn will take on a Panthers team that has given up on the season and should be a cakewalk this Sunday. Over the last four games, they rank 20th versus opposing backs. They allow at least one touchdown on average over the previous four games and 24 PPR points per game. Vaughn and the Bucs are eight-point favorites and should roll this week. They will want to avoid injury, so expect a heavy workload for the Bucs' young back, bringing a great cash game floor.
Keep an eye on - If Antonio Gibson is out then, Jarret Patterson becomes a near-cash game lock. Also, monitor the Bills' situation as Devin Singletary is an intriguing cash gameplay, but he may rest for the playoffs leading to some Zack Moss goodness.
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays - Week 18 Cash Games
Michael Pittman Jr., IND at JAX | DK: $5,900, FD: $6,600
The Colts will be going all out to be the Jags, given they may not need to be much so that they can clinch a playoff spot. JT should run wild on the Jags, but Carson Wentz should be able to throw some as well, which bodes well for Pittman. Over the last four games, Pittman leads the Colts with 23 targets and 15 receptions, with the next closest Colt having a total of 10 targets and six receptions. Pittman is the clear-cut receiving option for the Colts, and he should flourish versus a Jags defense that ranks 28th on the season versus opposing receivers.
Darnell Mooney, CHI at MIN | DK: $5,900, FD: $6,300
Mooney has been a receiving monster for the Bears as the season has waned on. Over the last four games, he has led the Bears with 34 targets, with the next closest having 24. Mooney is also tied for the team lead with five red-zone targets and four end zone targets over the last four games. Mooney has 18 receptions on those 34 targets and has scored double-digit fantasy points in the previous three games. Even with Fields out and Andy Dalton under center, Mooney should flourish versus an awful Vikings' secondary.
A Vikings' secondary ranks 32nd on the season and 29th over the last four games versus opposing receivers. The Vikings are five-point underdogs and should be throwing plenty to stay in the game. Look for Mooney to get his once again while bringing some cash game goodness.
Ray-Ray McCloud III, PIT at BAL | DK: $3,800, FD: $4,900
With Diontae Johnson hitting the COVID IR, it is time for Chase Claypool, Pat Freiermuth, and Ray-Ray McCloud to step up. Over the last four games, Johnson has received 39 targets and 24 receptions, but McCloud is second on the team with 29 targets and 15 receptions. I am not saying McCloud will receive all of the Johnson workloads, but he should receive plenty to bring home cash game value at his discounted price. It also helps that McCloud and the Steelers get to face a Ravens defense that ranks 30th on the season and 31st over the last four weeks versus opposing wide receivers. So lock McCloud into your cash games.
Tight End DFS Value Plays - Week 18 Cash Games
John Bates, WAS at NYG | DK: $3,000, FD: $4,600
There is not a lot of great value when it comes to tight ends this week. I will likely pay up for Mark Andrews or Pat Freiermuth. If looking to save money, then Bates could be your guy. Bates has made five receptions on seven targets over the last two weeks and has also found the end zone once. He has scored at least 6.5 PPR points in each of those two games. Now he faces a Giants defense that ranks 22nd versus opposing tight ends over the last four weeks. They are allowing over five receptions and nearly 13 PPR points per game. Bates should see a handful of targets again and, more importantly, a target or two in the red zone, which could make him smash his cash game value.
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