RADIO
Week 6 of the NFL season is in the books, and what a week it was. Aaron Rodgers reminded everyone that he "owns the Bears," the Rams dominated the depleted Giants, the Chiefs got back on track versus WFT, the Vikings and Panthers played a thriller, the Cowboys needed OT versus the Patriots, and much much more. This week we are in store for more craziness. There are only ten games on the main slate this week with six teams (Bills, Cowboys, Jaguars, Chargers, Vikings, and Steelers) on bye.
For Week 7, we will stick with the usual cash gameplan of looking for a solid floor and going from there, especially when it comes to value plays. Value this week is quite spread out. The popular moves will be paying up for Lamar Jackson, Matthew Stafford, and Jalen Hurts at the quarterback position. I would likely play one of these three QB's and find savings elsewhere. There are many ways to go at the running back position, and playing some of the value below could help a ton if not paying for Derrick Henry. At wide receiver and tight end, I will be looking at the value at WR while paying for Mark Andrews at tight tend. For pay-up spots at WR, I would look at DeVante Adams, Cooper Kupp, and Calvin Ridley, all in great spots. It will be another fun week in cash, so follow the chalk, find your value, and get those green screens.
This article will take a look at some of the value plays for each week of the NFL. However, when you look at value plays for GPP, you are somewhat swinging for the fences. Here I will be focusing on cash games and the necessity for slightly more safety as you are just looking to finish in the top half or so of the competition. Therefore, we are looking for cheaper players who should see a decent workload, be that pass attempts, targets, or carries. So, let's look at the cash value plays for Week 7 of the 2021 NFL season.
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Week 7 Quarterback Cash Game Value Plays
Matt Ryan, ATL at MIA | DK: $5,700, FD: $7,300
Yep, Matt Ryan is a cash game value this week. He comes in with 16 or more DK points in four straight games with 20 or more fantasy points in three of four games. Sounds like quite the cash game floor to me. Over those last four games, Ryan has thrown for 280+ yards in three games and has two or more touchdown passes in each game. Of course, it also helps that the Falcons' defense is not good, meaning a lot of Ryan passing the ball to try and stay in the game.
This week Ryan and the Falcons head to South Beach to face the reeling Dolphins. A Dolphins team that has struggled versus opposing quarterbacks this season. Over the last four games, the Dolphins rank 30th versus the quarterback position. They have allowed on average 346 passing yards, 2+ touchdowns, and well over 20 fantasy points. Not too shabby for a four-game average when looking for a cash game play. Ryan and the Falcons are also 2.5 point road favorites with an implied team total of 25.
Lastly, the Dolphins and Falcons both rank in the Top Six in pace in the NFL. The ball should be moving up and down the field, and points should be scored in bunches. Ryan makes for a great cash game value if one doesn't want to pay for Lamar Jackson, Matthew Stafford, or Jalen Hurts.
Joe Burrow, CIN at BAL | DK: $6,200, FD: $7,200
There are not many cheap options at QB this week, which makes Burrow my second value play. Burrow has scored 18+ fantasy points in four straight weeks, including three games over 20 points. In addition, Burrow has thrown for 270+ yards in three consecutive weeks and throws two or more touchdowns in every game this season. Burrow has been very efficient this season and will look to stay efficient against a tough Ravens team.
Burrow will face a Ravens defense that has allowed a QB1 one in three games this season, proving they can get thrown on. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging 295 passing yards per game with 1.5 touchdowns and nearly 20 fantasy points per game. This will not be an easy week for Burrow, but as 6.5 point dogs, he should be throwing plenty. Burrow may be better set for a GPP build with Ja'Marr Chase, but he also brings an excellent cash game floor with upside this week. He is not the best value but does fit the mold this week.
Week 7 Running Back Cash Game Value Plays
Chuba Hubbard, CAR at NYG | DK: $6,100, FD: $7,300
Hubbard has taken over for CMC and is beginning to flourish. Over the last two weeks, Hubbard has carried the ball 16 and 24 times for a combined 162 yards with six receptions on nine targets. Hubbard even found the end zone last week and has scored double-digit fantasy points each week. Hubbard has looked great in the bell cow role for the Panthers and gets a strong matchup versus the Giants on Sunday.
He will take on a Giants defense that has allowed five RB1 performances on this short season. A Giants defense that ranks 26th against opposing running backs over the last four games. They are allowing 127.5 yards per game on average with five receptions and nearly 30 fantasy points per game over the previous four games. The Giants' defense has been bludgeoned by opposing backs, and Hubbard should flourish this Sunday.
The Panthers are three-point favorites and should look to Hubbard early and often. He should be in line for another 20+ touch performance which makes him a smash value in cash games this week. Just remember what Darrell Henderson did against this Giants defense and imagine Hubbard doing something similar.
Darrel Williams, KC at TEN | DK: $5,800 FD: $6,700
With CEH out last week, Williams took the lead back role and literally ran away with it. Williams carried the rock 21 times, caught three of his four targets, and scored two touchdowns on his way to a 20+ fantasy point performance. We have seen Williams's ability run wild in years past, and no reason should not continue in the highly explosive Chiefs' offense. Of course, this week, he will take on a Titans defense that has rated well versus opposing running backs this season, but that does not concern me.
Sure the Titans rank 11th on the season and 9th over the last four weeks versus backs, but this Chiefs' offense is different. The Chiefs passing attack opens up the running lanes for Williams, not to mention the receiving skills Williams brings to the table. Lastly, an excellent trait for running backs in cash is their red-zone usage. Williams checks this box in a big way. He has 13 red-zone rushing attempts to go with three red-zone touchdowns. Williams also has two red-zone receptions on three targets.
Williams should be in line for at least 15 touches this week, with 20+ definitely in play. The Chiefs head into Tennessee as 4.5 point favorites with an implied team total of 31. Points will be aplenty, and Williams will have a significant impact on helping rack up those points.
Khalil Herbert, CHI at TB | DK: $5,200, FD: $6,000
Herbert has burst onto the scene the last couple of weeks, but more importantly, last week as the lead back for the Bears. Injuries have allowed Herbert to take over, and he has done just that. In his first start as the lead back, he ran for 97 yards on 19 carries with a touchdown and even added two receptions. With Justin Fields under the center, the running back has been used early and often, and that should continue this week, even in a tough matchup versus the Bucs.
The Bucs D is 9th on the season and 3rd over the last four weeks versus running backs. This makes sense as they usually jump out to big leads, taking the running backs out of the game. They may prevent backs from running, but they still allow 7+ receptions most games to opposing backs. That should be a big part of Herbert's production this week. I still expect Herbert to get 15+ carries, and more importantly, I see his target share increasing this week as Fields will need to dump off a few times. Herbert may worry some in cash games, and that's fine, but he is in play if looking for another cheap option.
Week 7 Wide Receiver Cash Game Value Plays
Chris Godwin, TB vs. CHI | DK: $5,900, FD: $6,700
Godwin is the epitome of cash game consistency. This season he has at least five targets in every game, and on DK has scored at least 8.5 points in each game with double-digit production in four of six games. The production should go through the roof against the Bears this week as Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski are out this week. When AB missed Week 3, Godwin caught six of seven targets for 74 yards and found the end zone.
This week he faces a Bears' defense that has fared well versus opposing receivers, but usually on the outside. The opposing teams can feast when it comes to slot receivers, meaning Godwin should be in for quite the day. He should see a ton of targets and have an excellent chance of finding the end-zone. The Bucs are 11.5 point favorites with an implied team total of 30. Even in scripts that look like games where they will run a lot, Tom Brady keeps throwing. Trust Godwin as a cash game lock this week.
Jaylen Waddle, MIA vs. ATL | DK: $5,600, FD: $5,900
Waddle has become the go-to target monster for the Dolphins of late. He has six or more targets in four of his last five games and 13 in two of his previous four games. The consistency of production with all the targets has not been great, but he can smash when he gets it going. Tua Tagovailoa returned last week and looked at Waddle early and often. That hopefully continues this week in a smash spot for the Dolphins' offense.
They will face the Falcons defense, which ranks 23rd over the last four games, versus opposing wide receivers. On average, they are allowing 1.3 touchdowns per game and over 40 fantasy points per game to opposing receivers. The Dolphins are 2.5 point dogs with an implied team total of 22.5 this week. I mentioned early that the Dolphins and Falcons are in the top six in pace this season, meaning points should be aplenty. Look for Waddle to be targeted early and often from Tua on his way to another solid game.
Tee Higgins, CIN at BAL | DK: $4,900, FD: $6,100
Higgins has missed a couple of weeks due to injuries, but when he suits up, he balls out, and this price tag is far too cheap. Higgins has at least five targets in all four games he has played this week, with double-digit fantasy points in three of four games. Higgins week in and week out brings a phenomenal fantasy floor to the slate.
This week, Higgins and the Bengals will have a tough matchup versus the Ravens, but a matchup that is not the end of the world. The Chiefs, Raiders, and Colts all moved the ball just fine versus the Ravens defense. Also, playing teams like the Lions and Broncos can make some defensive stats look better than reality. This week, the Bengals are 6.5 point dogs, meaning they should be throwing a lot to keep up in this game. Again, Higgins is a comfort blanket for Burrow, while Chase helps open up the top. Look for Higgins to easily get 5+ targets and find himself another double-digit fantasy game.
Darnell Mooney, CHI at TB | DK: $4,600, FD: $5,900
I usually only write up three wide receivers but had to add one more since Mooney should see a ton of work this week versus the Bucs. Since Fields took over as the starting quarterback for the Bears, he has looked at Mooney's way a lot. As a result, Mooney has five or more targets in five of six games this season. More importantly, he has scored 13 receptions on 20 targets over the last three games (Fields time) while scoring double-digit fantasy points in two of three games.
He will face a Bucs team that ranks 28th this season versus the pass, and a lot of that could be due to being up big on opponents, and playing prevent defense, but we don't care as fantasy points count the same no matter the time of the game. Mooney may also get a bump this week, with Allen Robinson being questionable this week. Mooney is not a lock and maybe better left for tournaments, but the volume will be there this week as they are 11.5 point dogs to the Bucs.
Week 7 Tight End Cash Game Value Plays
Cole Kmet, CHI at TB | DK: $3,000, FD: $4,900
This week I will likely pay up for Mark Andrews in cash, but if you are punting here, we go. Kmet has been a consistent target monster this season. He has four or more targets in four of his last five games; he just has not found the end zone. This week that could change if Robinson is out with Jimmy Graham already on the COVID IL.
It also helps the Bears will be throwing a lot, and they face a Bucs defense that ranks 23rd versus tight ends. Over the last four games, they are allowing an average of six receptions, one touchdown, and 15+ fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. We have all been waiting for the big Kmet game for quite some time, and maybe that time is now. He's dirt cheap, and if he can find the end zone will pay off in a big way.
C.J. Uzomah, CIN at BAL | DK: $3,000, FD: $5,200
The other punt option this week is Uzomah. Uzomah has three or more receptions in two of his last three games, with three touchdowns in those games. He has put up double-digit fantasy points as well in two of those three games. He will face the Ravens this week, and they rank 31st on the season versus tight ends. On average, the Ravens' D is allowing seven receptions, nearly a touchdown, and almost 20 fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. The Bengals should be throwing a lot, and Uzomah may get some excellent red-zone action on his way to a nice fantasy game.
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