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Welcome to the Divisional Round edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry that find themselves in favorable matchups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content:
- The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller-coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
- Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
- Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more site prices a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
- This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
- The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability very important criteria.
With those housekeeping items out of the way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on the Divisional Round slates!
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Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Joe Burrow, CIN at TEN | DK: $6,600, FD: $7,700, Yahoo: $34
Burrow didn't quite display the same hot hand he'd flashed during the last two games of the regular season in the wild-card win over the Raiders, but he still threw for 244 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. However, he should have a chance to deliver some strong returns on his salaries against a Titans defense that's funneled action toward the pass, especially at home, where they've been the league's best defense against the run. Tennessee finished the regular season facing the AFC's second-highest pass play percentage at home (65.7), and they also finished the regular season allowing an elevated 259.0 passing yards and 11.6 yards per completion over the last three contests. Burrow has thrown multiple TDs in three consecutive contests and completed over 70.0 percent in four of the last five overall, giving him a seemingly safe floor.
Matthew Stafford, LAR at TB | DK: $6,200, FD: $7,400, Yahoo: $29
Stafford was managing a toe injury during Monday night's wild-card win over the Cardinals, but he still found his way to three touchdowns and a stellar 76.5 percent completion rate in the runaway win for the Rams. With some postseason success now under his belt, the veteran gets another crack at a Buccaneers defense he lit up for 343 yards and four touchdown passes without an interception back in Week 3. The Buccaneers are facing an NFL-high 68.9 percent pass play rate at home this season, and they've surrendered 239.8 passing yards per home contest as well. Stafford has compiled 19 TD passes over his last eight contests, and his safe yardage floor should make him a very viable tournament or cash game play in a game that could well be a wire-to-wire affair.
Running Back DFS Value Plays
Devin Singletary, BUF at KC | DK: $5,900, FD: $7,200, Yahoo: $24
Singletary enters Sunday's contest on an extended stretch of strong play, as he's posted at least 81 rushing yards in four of the last five games while scoring eight total touchdowns over that span. After the Bills' running game was more or less a puzzle for the majority of the season. Singletary's recent performances have secured him a clear lead-back role, keeping him in play as a cost-savings pivot for Sunday's divisional-round showdown. The Chiefs have been much tougher against the run at home, but KC still gave up 4.5 yards per carry there and also yielded the fourth-most receptions (109) and third-most receptions (887) to running backs.
Elijah Mitchell, SF at GB | DK: $5,800, FD: $7,300, Yahoo: $25
Mitchell turned in another strong all-around effort against the Cowboys in Sunday's wild-card win, and he appears to be heading into this divisional-round clash with his knee healthier than it's been in some time after nearly practicing in full all week. Mitchell's workload is locked in as well, as he's logged over 20 carries in six straight contests. The rookie has averaged an impressive 98.3 rushing yards per contest in that span and now faces a Packers defense that was gashed by the run at home to the tune of 5.6 yards per carry. Green Bay also gave up 90 receptions to running backs during the regular season, and while Mitchell hasn't been involved as much in the passing game of late, he did have a pair of five-catch games earlier in the season.
ALSO CONSIDER: Jerick McKinnon, KC vs. BUF | DK: $4,800, FD: $6,000, Yahoo: $17
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Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
A.J. Brown, TEN vs. CIN | DK: $6,200, FD: $7,600, Yahoo: $26
Brown's salaries, especially his DK figure, are very appealing relative to his upside. Thanks to the bye week afforded by the Titans' No. 1 seed, the dynamic wideout has also had a chance to rest his body after an injury-shortened regular season. Brown came back from his three-game absence due to a chest injury to close out the regular season with a 17-254-2 line over his last three games. The Bengals were actually a better defense on the road and have allowed just 225 yards through the air when traveling, but Cincy still gave up 12.3 yards per grab to wideouts and allowed the fourth-highest explosive pass play rate (9%) on the season as well.
Tyler Boyd, CIN at TEN| DK: $4,800, FD: $5,800, Yahoo: $20
Boyd is likely to be least-rostered of the Bengals' remarkable wideout trio, as both Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are flashier and speedier options by far. Nevertheless, Boyd carries a safe floor and typically works in high-percentage areas of the field, which also happen to be some of the passing windows that the Titans' secondary has proven to be most vulnerable in. While Boyd posted a 37-318-4 line on a 77.1 percent catch rate in the short left and short right passing windows, Tennessee gave up 11 TDs in those areas of the field. The Titans also yielded an AFC-high 248 receptions and 3,210 receiving yards to wideouts, furthering Boyd's case at his very modest salaries.
Allen Lazard, GB vs. SF | DK: $4,400, FD: $6,000, Yahoo: $16
Marquez Valdes-Scantling is doubtful for Saturday night's contest due to his back injury, and his likely absence means his downfield route tree will be there for the taking. With Davante Adams an elite short- and intermediate-area operator and returning veteran Randall Cobb set to operate in the slot role that's defined his career, Lazard and his above-average wheels is the answer to a downfield threat for Aaron Rodgers. Lazard's aDOT checked in at a solid 10.1 yards, and eight of his 40 receptions went for over 20 yards. San Francisco also checks in tied for the fourth-highest explosive pass play rate allowed (9%), and the Niners allowed 32.1 yards per catch and five touchdowns on the 30 completions they surrendered in the deep middle and deep right areas of the field.
DK-ONLY SPECIAL: Tyreek Hill, KC vs. BUF | $6,600
Tight End DFS Value Plays
George Kittle, SF at GB | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,400, Yahoo: $23
Kittle naturally has immense upside but hasn't demonstrated it in a while, which has led to an enticing salary drop. Given his upside and the recency bias that's likely to be attached to him to an extent, he makes for an intriguing tournament play in particular versus a Packers defense that was relatively generous to tight ends this season. Green Bay allowed an 88-871-8 line to the position during the 2021 campaign, and Kittle also posted a 7-92 line on nine targets against the Pack in Week 3.
Tyler Higbee, LAR at TB | DK: $4,000, FD: $5,400, Yahoo: $17
Higbee is always lingering as a sort of forgotten man in the Rams' potent pass-catching corps, but the veteran tight end certainly carries more than enough potential to pay handsome dividends on his modest salaries. Higbee enjoys a steady role that's seen post at least five receptions, 41 receiving yards and six targets in four of the last five contests. He also posted a 5-40-1 line against the Buccaneers back in Los Angeles' Week 3 win, and Tampa Bay surrendered a robust 92-862-6 tally to tight ends during the regular season before conceding six receptions for 92 yards on 12 targets to the Eagles' Dallas Goedert in last Sunday's wild-card win.
ALSO CONSIDER: Dawson Knox, BUF at KC | DK: $4,900, FD: $6,500, Yahoo: $20
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