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Welcome to the Week 12 Sunday slates edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry that find themselves in favorable match-ups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content:
- The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller-coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
- Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
- Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more site prices a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
- This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
- The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability very important criteria.
With those housekeeping items out of the way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on the Week 12Sunday slates!
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Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Cam Newton, CAR at MIA | DK: $5,600, FD: $8,000, Yahoo: $30
Newton is undoubtedly still working off some rust after just making his season debut two games ago and his first start in Week 11. However, the one-time league MVP has looked reasonably sharp considering the amount of time he'd been been out of action. I'm not thrilled with Newton's salary on FD in particular, but he still could make for a rewarding play due to his dual-threat upside and the matchup against a Dolphins defense that's allowed 274.2 passing yards per game, the fourth-most passing touchdowns (20) and 182 rushing yards and a TD to quarterbacks on the ground, along with the third-highest explosive pass play rate (10%).
Tyrod Taylor, HOU vs. NYJ | DK: $5,300, FD: $7,400, Yahoo: $20
Taylor helped lead the Texans to an upset of the Titans on the road in Week 11, throwing for only 107 yards and but adding 28 rushing yards and two touchdowns on the ground. Taylor should have mostly worked out any kinks from his injury layoff earlier in the season with two games back under his belt already, and Sunday, he draws a matchup that could well facilitate his top performance of the season yet. The Jets' secondary has been a sieve on the road with 302.0 passing yards per contest allowed in that split, along with an NFL-high 12.0 yards per completion when traveling as well. New York has also picked off just three passes all season and given up an NFL-high 12% explosive pass play rate, further brightening Taylor's prospects.
ALSO CONSIDER: Jimmy Garoppolo, SF vs. MIN | DK: $5,700, FD: $7,500, Yahoo: $26
Running Back DFS Value Plays
Melvin Gordon, DEN vs. LAC | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,300, Yahoo: $19
Gordon gets a crack at his old Chargers squad, one that's allowed an NFL-worst 168.8 rushing yards per game on the road on an NFL-high 5.0 yards per carry. Gordon has a robust red-zone role and has scored a touchdown on the ground in three straight, and he's also seen multiple targets in every game this season. Meanwhile, Los Angeles has allowed the second-most rushing touchdowns to RBs, along with the sixth-highest red-zone TD success rate on the road (71.4%). With L.A. also ranked in the bottom half of the league in second-level and open-field yards per carry allowed, the opportunity for some chunk gains could certainly be there.
Rex Burkhead, HOU vs. NYJ | DK: $4,200, FD: $5,700, Yahoo: $14
This selection admittedly carries some risk, but with one more obstacle to carries in Phillip Lindsay being let go this week and Burkhead functioning as a legitimate lead back versus the Titans in Week 11 (18 carries), he's worthy of consideration at his salaries. The versatile veteran brings plenty of pass-catching upside as well and faces a Jets squad that's not only allowed plenty through the air as already detailed in Taylor's entry, but that's also conceding the second-most rushing yards per road game (149.4). What's more, New York is ranked No. 29 in explosive rush play rate allowed (14%) and have also given up a robust 72-655-4 line through the air to RBs.
ALSO CONSIDER: Javonte Williams, DEN vs. LAC | DK: $5,200, FD: $5,700, Yahoo: $20 / Miles Sanders, PHI at NYG | DK: $5,100, FD: $6,100, Yahoo: $17
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Mike Williams, LAC at DEN | DK: $5,700, FD: $6,600, Yahoo: $21
Williams bounced back from multiple sub-par games in Week 11, posting a 5-97-1 line against the Steelers on Sunday night. The 2017 first-round pick still hasn't been over 100 yards since Week 5, but he certainly carries more upside than his current salaries imply. The Broncos have given up plenty of downfield plays to wideouts, allowing 14.1 yards per grab to the position, along with 11 receiving touchdowns. Denver is also tied with several teams for third-highest explosive pass play rate allowed (10%) and is giving up the fifth-highest average yards per completion (11.2) on the road, all factors that dovetail well with Williams' downfield chops. What's more, it's worth noting Williams has seen an impressive 14 red-zone targets this season, while the Broncos are allowing 70.0 percent red-zone TD success rate when traveling.
Elijah Moore, NYJ at HOU | DK: $5,600, FD: $6,400, Yahoo: $21
Moore finally broke out in Week 11, posting an 8-141- line on 11 targets against the Dolphins in a narrow loss. The rookie was operating with Joe Flacco under center for that contest, and with inconsistent rookie Zach Wilson returning from his knee injury to make the Week 12 start, there's more risk attached to Moore than if he was working with the veteran. Nevertheless, the rookie's explosiveness has a chance to play well against a Texans defense that's given up the sixth-highest average yards per completion of any team on its home field (11.8), along with 13.7 yards per grab to wideouts specifically.
Brandon Aiyuk, SF vs. MIN | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,300, Yahoo: $17
Aiyuk's salaries are highly appealing for a player who's posted a 20-245-2 line over his last four games and who's seen at least seven targets in three of those contests. Aiyuk's slow start to the season may still be keeping his salaries down some, but he'll be in a favorable matchup Sunday at home. The Vikings have surrendered the fifth-most receiving yards (1,950) and are tied with several teams for third-most touchdown receptions given up to receivers, giving up 14.2 yards per grab to wideouts in the process as well. Aiyuk has been used in more of a short and intermediate capacity, but his recent red-zone usage is also encouraging and could help comfortably overdeliver on his salaries.
ALSO CONSIDER: Jakobi Meyers, NE vs. TEN | DK: $5,000, FD: $5,700, Yahoo: $19
Tight End DFS Value Plays
Noah Fant, DEN vs. LAC | DK: $4,600, FD: $5,900, Yahoo: $18
Fant has been nothing if not steady this season, logging at least four catches and six targets in six of nine contests. The athletic tight end should be refreshed for this divisional clash coming out of the bye week, and the matchup couldn't get much better on paper. The Chargers have allowed a 53-625-9 line to tight ends, with the touchdown figure tying them with the Eagles for the most allowed to the position. The Bolts have also been very good against receivers, which could certainly help lead to an extra target or two for Fant.
Evan Engram, NYG vs. PHI | DK: $3,800, FD: $5,500, Yahoo: $17
Engram has been stuck in neutral most of the season, but with Jason Garrett now gone as offensive coordinator, the tight end has a new lease on life and could certainly be focused on immediately. The Eagles make for an excellent targets, considering they've faced an NFL-high 99 targets and surrendered a bloated 81-811-9 line to the position as well. Engram has been four and eight targets in seven of the eight games he's played, and his salaries are so low that he could turn into an excellent fantasy-point-per-dollar play if New York immediately shifts to a philosophy of getting him more involved.
ALSO CONSIDER: Rob Gronkowski, TB at IND | DK: $4,400, FD: $6,500, Yahoo: $22
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