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Welcome to the Week 18 Sunday slates edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry that find themselves in favorable matchups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content:
- The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller-coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article!
- Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
- Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more site prices a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
- This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
- The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability very important criteria.
With those housekeeping items out of the way, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit on the Week 18 Sunday slates!
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Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Taysom Hill, NO at ATL | DK: $6,200, FD: $7,700, Yahoo: $29
Hill offers some nice upside at his salaries due to his talents as a runner, and he has a good matchup on tap through both the ground and air in the regular-season finale against the Falcons. The Mercedez-Benz Dome turf should give Hill a fast track to operate on, and Atlanta also comes in allowing 238.3 passing yards per home game. Just as important, the Falcons are having yielded the third-most rushing yards to QBs (413) and the second-most rushing TDs to RBs (four), particularly relevant when considering a quarterback of Hill's mobility.
Davis Mills, HOU vs. TEN | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,400, Yahoo: $21
Mills has demonstrated significant improvement the more he's played, and he has a strong matchup on paper to close out his rookie season. The Titans are surrendering 252.0 passing yards per road game and have given up the eighth-most passing yards overall (4,184). Mills has thrown for multiple touchdowns in two of his last three games and boasts an impressive 69.7 percent completion rate and 9:1 TD:INT on his home field.
ALSO CONSIDER: Carson Wentz, IND at JAC | DK: $5,800, FD: $7,200, Yahoo: $26
Running Back DFS Value Plays
Devin Singletary, BUF vs. NYJ | DK: $6,000, FD: $6,700, Yahoo: $23
The Jets have been trampled by the ground game frequently this season and come into the finale allowing the third-most rushing yards per road game (146.6) at 4.6 yards per carry. Singletary has enjoyed a much more prominent role over the last six games, logging double-digit carries in five of them, including three straight. Singletary is averaging 4.7 yards per carry over the last four contests specifically, and with 38 receptions this season, he also certainly has the ability to take advantage of the fact New York has given up a 99-877-4 line to running backs through the air.
Samaje Perine, CIN at CLE | DK: $5,300, FD: $6,500, Yahoo: $15
Perine is set to serve as the Bengals' top back Sunday with Joe Mixon on the reserve/COVID-19 list, and the veteran will come in very well rested after logging just 55 carries all season. Perine is enjoying his best season as a receiver as well -- his 27-196-1 line is a career-best -- and the Browns will check into this finale spiraling against the run. Following the throttling the Steelers' Najee Harris subjected them to Monday night, Cleveland is now allowing an elevated 132.3 rushing yards per contest in the last three and has also allowed a 74-490-4 line through the air to running backs.
ALSO CONSIDER: Ke'Shawn Vaughn, TB vs. CAR | DK: $5,300, FD: $5,900, Yahoo: $17
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Darnell Mooney, CHI at MIN | DK: $5,900, FD: $6,300, Yahoo: $21
Mooney came through nicely as a suggestion in Week 17 with a 7-69-1 line versus the Giants, and he'll be in a favorable spot again versus the Vikings to close out the season. The speedster posted a 5-63 tally versus Minnesota in the first meeting between the clubs, and the Vikes check in allowing 255.0 passing yards per home contest at an elevated 11.4 yards per completion.
Chase Claypool, PIT at BAL | DK: $5,100, FD: $5,800, Yahoo: $18
Claypool apparently will have Diontae Johnson alongside him after all in Week 18 after the latter quickly cleared COVID-19 protocols Friday, which actually should be a positive development. Baltimore's weak secondary will be able to devote much less attention to Claypool as a result, and the second-year wideout could therefore be well-positioned to take advantage of a defense allowing an NFL-high 285.4 passing yards per home game. Baltimore is also tied with the Jets for the highest explosive pass play rate allowed (12%), while 13 of Claypool's 54 catches this season have gone for over 20 yards.
A.J. Green, ARI vs. SEA | DK: $5,400, FD: $5,700, Yahoo: $15
Green posted a solid 4-78 line on seven targets against the Seahawks in the first meeting between Seattle and the Cardinals, and he could be even more involved in what is a game Arizona needs in order to secure the NFC West crown. The veteran speedster will draw a matchup versus a Seahawks defense that's allowed 263.5 passing yards per road game, and Green's aDOT of 12.3 yards should give him a chance of racking up some solid yardage totals even if he remains in the four-to-six reception range, especially considering Seattle has also yielded the ninth-most receiving yards to wideouts (2,602).
ALSO CONSIDER: Marquez Callaway, NO at ATL | DK: $5,000, FD: $5,900, Yahoo: $17
Tight End DFS Value Plays
Dawson Knox, BUF vs. NYJ | DK: $5,400, FD: $6,000, Yahoo: $20
Another big weakness for the Jets' defense has been defending the tight end position, putting Knox firmly in play at his salaries Sunday. New York has allowed a robust 89-1,064-8 line to the position this season, while Knox is coming in off a pair of down games that are likely to keep his rostering lower than usual. However, the emerging tight end has flashed his upside at times this season, and after a catchless effort in Week 17, it's likely the Bills try to get him involved early and often to build momentum for the postseason.
Tyler Conklin, MIN vs. CHI | DK: $4,200, FD: $5,300, Yahoo: $12
Conklin has seen 14 targets over his last two games alone, and he's averaging over five looks per contest overall. The breakout tight end will have Kirk Cousins back under center for the Week 18 finale as well, and with Adam Thielen (ankle) on injured reserve, there should be some extra targets to go around for Conklin. Chicago has been reasonably effective against tight ends while allowing a 58-576-5 line to the position, but Conklin's steady role and talent should give him a solid opportunity to pay off his modest salaries.
ALSO CONSIDER: Zach Ertz, ARI vs. SEA | DK: $5,300, FD: $5,600, Yahoo: $20
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