Outfielders Returning from Injury - 2018 Undervalued ADP Targets

Getting tagged "injury prone" can mean a lot of things to fantasy owners. The floor for a guy sitting on the DL is just that: the floor. A big fat goose egg at a position of importance can crater a season, and the guys in this piece all contributed to their fair share of zeros in 2017. It's why Zack Cozart spent most of his career on the waiver wire before blowing up in 2018. And that is what owners need to find: the player who has the potential to shed the label and overproduce for fantasy teams. Each player highlighted here can do that.

For the savvy owner, an injury history can mean an opportunity. A medical record creates a reputation, and fear of the lost asset will drive the value of a really good player to the ground. To be fair, even if these guys hit for draftees, owners will have to contend with a depressed value in trade talks. If you're drafting one or more of the players highlighted, or anyone else at any position with the injury concern, expect to hold onto them all season.

Each one of these players have suffered from injuries throughout their careers, but they have something in common: flukes. Injuries come in all shapes and sizes, but these guys all have dealt with rare and surprising problems. They've also pushed themselves to get back to playing maybe a little sooner than they should have. This tells you something as well: they'll play through pain. These are guys who are ready to get after it for a full season, and are chomping at the bit to get back to center stage. Injury prone guys that are sidelined by random and frequent ankle and shoulder ailments tend to be a little less eager to get back to ball, but none of these guys fit that bill. Get ready for comeback seasons from each of these players, and draft or trade for them accordingly.

Outfielders Trying to Bounce Back

Adam Eaton, Washington Nationals

Poor Adam Eaton. The diminutive outfielder suffered a season ending ACL tear in late April last year after being acquired by the Nationals in exchange for the trio of talented pitchers in Dane Dunning, Reynaldo Lopez, and headliner Lucas Giolito. The price to obtain Eaton, whom Washington expected to be their primary center fielder, was rich but reasonable for the ideal lead-off man and capable defender. And it was all going according to plan, with Eaton scoring 24 runs before the end of the first month of the season. That is, until Eaton’s knee gave out.

When healthy, the outfielder derives much of his value from being aggressive and clever, taking advantage of opponent’s mistakes at the plate and on the base paths. He doesn’t possess much pop or an overwhelming amount of speed, but he gets the most out of his abilities and is among the toughest outs in baseball not named Joey Votto. He produces a high-average, low-strikeout, high-OBP line, averaging .289/.364/.428 triple slash for his career while striking out on just 16.6% of the time. In a full season, he’s able to pitch in a few homers and steals, with career highs of just 14 and 18, respectively. It’s not the emptiest average, but certainly not the most exciting counting stats available. Where Eaton gets more interesting with the Nationals is as a premier run-producer, and a healthy year would likely easily surpass 100 runs with 120 a very real possibility. As a three-category producer, he’s long been an interesting and underrated fantasy producer because he is elite in those categories if he stays healthy.

Of course, that’s a big “if”, and the unexpected star player has now lost large parts of two seasons to serious ailments. Aside from his knee injury that ended his 2017, Eaton missed much of 2013 with an aggravated elbow sprain that rendered him ineffective even when he was on the field. Before that, he missed the majority of the 2007 season while playing for Kenton Ridge High School. That’s roughly 30% of the last decade of baseball missed due to serious, long-term injuries. That said, when researching Eaton’s history for this piece, I was actually surprised to learn that he’s only played five major-league seasons, and even more surprised to learn that aside from those two seasons he’s been relatively durable. Taking away 2013, in which he played in just 66 games, and a 23 game 2017 season, Eaton has averaged 144 games a year as a pro. Further, Eaton has shown no issues with the back issue from 2007 while in the minors, nor the elbow injury that kept him sidelined in 2013.

With Jayson Werth gone, the Nationals are free to deploy the 29-year-old in a corner spot opposite Bryce Harper. The move will lessen the demand on Eaton’s body, but the foundation of his game is a high-energy, aggressive approach (some have even called him “kamikaze”) to everything he does that allows him to maximize on his limited toolset. That includes defense, and this is not the most encouraging news for a guy who has lost large parts of multiple seasons to knee and elbow injuries. Of course, the opposing question is whether Eaton would be the same player we’ve come to know and love if he isn’t going all-out. We’ve never seen him take it easy, so we don’t know how he’ll respond if he’s asked to. It’s not likely that he will chill out his playing style, and he doesn’t have the benefit of serving as a DH to spell him in the outfield.

Eaton is currently being drafted around pick 152^nd overall, making him the 38^th outfielder off the board. This puts him near other interesting but flawed players like Nomar Mazara, Paul DeJong, Kevin Kiermaier, and Justin Smoak. That’s just 40 picks lower than in 2016, but still leaves a lot of room to receive excess value from that price. But if you pick him, you need a healthy season from him or you’ve overpaid. Eaton won’t be a fit for every team at this price point, but that said he certainly could be a strong asset for those looking for elite average, OBP, or runs. Plus, it’s likely that Washington won’t be able to keep Eaton from throwing his body around, not an ideal situation for a guy with such a history. Those with teams that are already rife with injury and playing time risks should probably look elsewhere.

Gregory Polanco, Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates outfielder suffered what could be described as a “comedy of errors” in 2017. Depending on who you talk to, those injuries combined to sap Polanco of pretty much every aspect of his game. The result was an almost out-of-body season in which he produced half to less than half of every counting stat from his breakout in 2016. What makes matters more difficult for projecting his value this season is that his jump in power, .205 ISO with 22 home runs the season before last, is now sandwiched between three seasons of below-average pop. The question for Polanco is actually less if he’s injury-prone, and more if injuries masked legitimate improvement.

The outfielder’s medical report was not a short one in 2017. A hamstring sprain originally suffered in spring training ended up sapping Polanco’s athleticism for most of the season. Aside from a trio of DL stints related to the injury, the outfielder clearly tried gutting it out but never got comfortable, and the stats reflected that reality. Polanco managed just .251/.305/.391 with a .140 ISO and 11 home runs despite adding muscle in the offseason. His speed was inconsistent as well, as he produced just 8 steals and 39 runs across 411 at-bats, a major drop in production from previous seasons. In all phases of the game, Polanco was a shell of the budding star of 2016.

But stuck in that disappointing season was an almost month long stretch of elite level production. From mid-June stretching to his DL stint in July, he owned a .240 ISO, .346 OBP, .547 SLG, and a .365 wOBA. It was actually the only point in the entire season that Polanco was truly healthy, showing a balanced approach at the plate and using his two good legs to drive pitches. And though his body failed him during most of the year, he showed major advancements in his approach at the plate. He dropped his strikeout rate to a miniscule 14.6%. Detractors argue that his injuries made him more timid at the plate and was at times more reluctant to swing and at other times too eager to settle for poor contact. And, while his hard hit rate and soft hit rates were indeed poorer than owners had come to expect, his swing rate and contact rate were actually the highest of his career. He tried to hit balls and often was a tough out, he just didn’t have command of his swing enough to drive like he was used to. There’s likely some negative regression in his strikeout rate, but there’s also some positive regression coming in his walk rate, 6.6% and a career low a season ago. The numbers and eye test suggest an advanced approach, and for a kid that makes contact on 91.8% on pitches in the zone, that means he’ll have opportunities to feast on opposing pitchers.

Polanco’s offseason training regiment was structured to help him recover some of his athleticism as opposed to increasing strength, and this is critical when considering his value for 2017. Added muscle does indeed make one stronger, obviously, but adding lots of muscle to a frame in a short period of time puts more strain on the connective tissue such as the ligaments that Polanco struggled with last season. And as a 6’5” kid moving 235 lbs. around, he’s got plenty of natural pop in his body that he doesn’t need to add a ton of muscle to hit 25 bombs. Watching a man that big move that fluidly tells you something about what kind of natural athlete he is, and with this training program, he should at least have a better shot at staying healthy throughout the season.

And don’t look now but he’s had an impressive spring. A .326/.367/.630 line looks really nice to owners hoping for a rebound, especially those grabbing him with the 153^rd pick on average in drafts. The late pick is the product of less than stellar projections on counting stats. ZIPS, for example, gives him just 16 homers, 15 steals, and 70 runs. But the systems also seem to think that his metrics will rebound with a .268/.328/.437 with a 8.2% walk rate and .169 ISO, numbers that seem to undersell his abilities while still assuming a nice rebound from 2017. That means that there is a ton of room for value on what amounts to a 15^th round pick in 10 team leagues. Polanco represents a much higher floor than other picks after the 10^th round, and he has the ceiling worthy of an early round selection.

David Dahl, Colorado Rockies

Analysis: David Dahl suffered a lost season due to a spring training stress fracture in his rib that took months longer to heal than expected. As a result, the outfielder that was being drafted as the presumptive starting left fielder for the Colorado Rockies logged a grand total of zero at-bats at the major league level in 2017. Letting the youngster rehab in Triple A may have been the right move, as even when Dahl returned he never found the form that saw him excite fans with 7 HR, 42 runs, and 24 RBI on a blistering .315 average and .367 wOBA while chipping in 5 steals in his first 237 at-bats of his major league career.

With an opening act like that, the 2017 helium makes sense. But freshly scorned players are jumping off of Dahl’s bandwagon in droves, and his ADP has now sunk too low. The Rockies opted to let him rehab in Triple A instead of rushing him back, and sure enough the little playing time showed that he was not yet 100%. All reports going in to 2018, however, insist that Dahl is sprinting, lifting weights, swinging all out, and generally looking and feeling like his old self.

It’s worth noting that the types of injuries that have given the 23-year-old his “injury-prone” label are relatively freak occurrences. Many of the players that have been frequent guests of the DL have suffered from soft-tissue injuries such as ligament tears, sprains, and muscle pulls. Without getting too into the weeds, players that have major soft-tissue injuries, on average, are more likely to experience more soft-tissue problems the future. Dahl’s maladies, on the other hand, have been those that are not common occurrences in the game of baseball. Aside from the rib last season, Dahl suffered a lacerated spleen in 2015. Concerns about his health have been lingering out loud since that spleen, but we’ve seen players shed such labels before, and Dahl works hard to stay great physical shape. While there’s no reason to think he won’t get hurt again, there’s also no reason to think that he can’t have a completely healthy season.

Dahl is currently being drafted, on average, with the 245^th pick, and that average is likely to plummet with the news that he’ll start the season in the minors. There are still valuable big leaguers around at that point, but few offer the upside of the Rockies’ outfielder. Roster construction matters here, and if you have a team rife with risk, then he might be a bad fit. But if you can stomach the injury possibilities, remember that none of the questions surrounding Dahl’s fantasy value have anything to do with his actual playing skill. If Dahl is able to stay healthy, the tools and talent that got him drafted in the 80’s in 2017 are all still present, and .290/25/20 is not outside of the realm of possibility with a full season under his belt.

Dahl’s skills have rarely been in question, and despite the mostly lost season we can actually pull some encouraging signs from his 74 at-bats in Triple-A. His .315 average in 2016 over 237 at-bats was very much BABIP driven, as balls in play fell in at .404 clip. That’ll come down, no doubt, both due to regression to the mean and due to his occasional issues with hitting ground balls. His rate was a touch too high, and he put the ball on the ground 45.4% of the time. For a hitter with power playing in Colorado, this won’t do. But Dahl apparently knows this, and last season showed adjustments to raise his fly ball rate and lower his groundball rate. It’s a small sample size, sure, but it’s enough to be indicative that he’s not resting on his laurels and working to give himself the best chance to succeed.

Dahl enters 2018 fully healthy, and all of the concerns of regression from 2016 shouldn’t dissuade you. In fact, while he won’t hit a .404 BABIP over a full season, he is the type of player that tends to produce an above average BABIP, thanks to his speed and how solid he makes contact. Dahl only produced soft contact on 15.3%, which is elite, and produced medium contact on 52.1%. When you hit the ball hard, good things happen, and Dahl’s success is a product of that adage. The hate has gone too far for this Rockie, and between pick 170-190, Dahl represents a potentially season-altering value.

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