RADIO
And we're back to the Expected Draft Values series, where we look at historical data to identify both over and undervalued players of all types. Whether you're targeting power, speed, power+speed, batting average+power, and so on, we've got you covered. We now head to second base as we make our way around the diamond for 2022.
Today, we'll look at three second basemen and compare their projected statline via my Cutter Projections against their ADP's expected return. Due to a variety of factors such as name recognition, your fantasy platform's default rank in the draft room, or social media buzz, ADPs can be swayed to poorly reflect the stats you're drafting. Stay tuned over the next couple of weeks as we bring you a deeper look at undervalued and overvalued players from each position using Expected Draft Values.
Generally, what we'll do in this series is identify players who will return a positive or negative value, based on their NFBC ADP in Draft Champions Contests spanning February into March (~90 drafts), their Expected Draft Value (i.e. the average stat line typically produced at that ADP), and the player's projection.
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How Expected Draft Values Help You Win Your League
It may be clear by this point already, but if you know the expected break-even stat-line of every draft slot, you can identify which of your draft picks are projected to return positive or negative value. Below, we look at five power bats that are either over or undervalued based on their recent NFBC DC ADP, our RotoBaller projections, and Expected Draft Values.
Without further ado, here are some players that stand out at their current cost in 2022 drafts.
Jose Altuve - 2B, HOU
NFBC DC ADP: 77
Expected Return for a Power Hitter Drafted 77th: .258 BA, 33 HR, 83 runs, 95 RBI, 3 SB
2022 RotoBaller Projection: .273-26-102-79-6
Analysis: Altuve has begun trending in the wrong direction, going from a balanced hitter who attacked all fields with some pop but more speed and average to a guy selling out for more power in lieu of the other tools. If the baseballs are indeed less jumpy in 2022, then that approach could result in a lackluster picture.
For the meantime, we’ll scale back the drama and simply describe what’s been happening. Altuve used to routinely blow past a .300 average with 30-plus steals in his early-to-mid 20s, and then 2016 saw his HR/FB rate jump into the double-digits. The power showed up but his fly-ball rates stayed around the usual 30-33% band next to a pull rate around 40-45%. He was clubbing the ball, but not at the expense of his average. He still flirted with .300 even with a whopping 31 home runs in just 548 PAs in 2019 (I know, I know).
That 2019 season was a meaningful one alright, but for us, it saw Altuve jump from 2018’s 41.4% pull rate to an even 50%. His fly-ball rate rose a touch to 32.5% (up from 30%) and he still hit .298 on the year. Cool. Then he fought through injuries to a horrid .219/.286/.344 line in 2020 before muscling up a career-high 38.7% fly-ball rate and 54.4% pull rate in 2021.
The resulting 31 home runs in 678 PAs is great on its own, but the .278 average creeps towards the high end of outcomes for that batted-ball profile. Then you mix in a frightful decline in steals and steal attempts:
I’m not buying at this price, especially when I can get a guy trending upwards around the same pick.
Verdict: Pass, Altuve is overvalued at his current draft slot
Brandon Lowe - 2B, TB
NFBC DC ADP: 78
Expected Return for a Power Hitter Drafted 78th: .257-33-82-95-3
2022 RotoBaller Projection: .258-31-92-87-7
Analysis: Speaking of the devil (Ray), Lowe enters his age-27 season fresh off of a 39-homer campaign and his third straight year of eclipsing the 21% HR/FB mark. We hadn’t seen a full season out of Lowe, though the abbreviated 2020 sprint yielded 14 round-trippers in just 56 games (224 PAs) as a sneak peek. Since 2019, Lowe has 70 home runs in 1,166 PAs.
Combined stats can be difficult to orient, so let me rephrase: There have been 159 hitters with at least 1,000 PAs since 2019. Of those 159, Lowe’s rate of a home run for every 16.67 PAs is the 14th best rate. On top of that, Lowe is one of the few bats with such power that can also contribute with steals. He swiped seven bags last year, giving him 46 HR+SB. Our projections have him at 38 HR+SB, two over the 36 required by EDV. He’s also three over the R+RBI tally and a few points above the batting average.
In short, Lowe is slightly at or above the mark in every department when it comes to the EDV report card. He couldn’t get much worse against southpaws after hitting .198 versus LHP in 2021, and even a career 35.7% strikeout rate against them comes with 22 HRs for a 104 wRC+ (145 wRC+ against right-handers). There's room within his outcome ranges for some drops and growth alike. This is a solid mid-round buy if you need to chart a path with power and a smattering of speed for someone trending up rather than down.
Verdict: Target, Lowe is undervalued at his current draft slot
DJ LeMahieu - 1B/2B/3B, NYY
NFBC DC ADP: 118
Expected Return for a Batting Average Hitter Drafted 118th: .300-14-72-70-11
2022 RotoBaller Projection: .290-18-98-72-5
Analysis: LeMahieu is a career .300 hitter who carried his Coors success over to Yankee Stadium, hitting .327 in 2019 and .364 in ‘20. The pendulum swung back in ‘21 as LeMahieu only hit .268 with 10 home runs in 679 PAs, which is the same amount of HRs that he clubbed in just 216 PAs in ‘20. There is plenty of reason to believe in the Yankees’ leadoff hitter and buy the dip.
For one, LeMahieu’s body of work has been well established over five-plus years now. He still posted a 22% line-drive rate with a 25-40-35 pull-center-oppo spray rate, similar to recent campaigns. His max exit velocity of 110.6 mph stacks up with 109.5 mph in ‘20 and 111.1 mph in ‘19 so the top-end remains, but I’ll be monitoring his performance against fastballs. I don't want to lean on a late-season hernia injury as the reason for his overall performance, but it's worth noting he's healthy now after surgery.
DJ LeMahieu- Abdomen- LeMahieu said last week that he is fully healthy following October surgery to repair a sports hernia, Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News reports. #Yankees
— Fantasy Baseball Injury Guru (@mlbinjuryguru) February 21, 2022
After he posted a SLG/xSLG of .483/.508 in his big ‘19 and .622/.461 marks in ‘20, the power fell to .367/.385 in ‘21. Given the friendly confines of Yankee Stadium, I’m confident someone with LeMahieu’s penchant for contact finds better results. Consider his 30 XBH in 311 home PAs in ‘19 and compare that to just 11 XBH at home in 329 PAs last season. I don’t expect a rebound to the hilarious .448 home batting average of 2020, but a poor .257 average in the Bronx sure looks like a similar outlier, just on the other side of variance. CUTTER agrees with me. Mix in his being the best tri-eligible player across the diamond that you can draft and he makes for an excellent start to the middle rounds.
I originally drafted this before the Yankees clogged the infield a bit, but I trust in DJL's versatility to win out as an everyday play across the diamond. His bat is sorely needed at the top of the order and neither Josh Donaldson nor Anthony Rizzo are pinnacles of health at the corners.
Verdict: Target, LeMahieu is overvalued at his current draft slot
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