RADIO
Hey there, RotoBallers! Thanks for stopping by my PGA DFS strategy series that focuses on multi-entry GPP strategy for each specific golf tournament on the PGA Tour. If you haven't read any of my pieces yet, my name is Tommy Bell. I go by @BellRoto in the Twitter world, and I've been writing for RotoBaller since my college days back in 2013!
Our fantastic RotoBaller PGA team has pretty much every facet of golf DFS and betting covered, but this might one extra piece I can add to the mix to help put into words what I believe is the most profitable way to approach PGA DFS. That approach is simply max entering the multi-entry GPP tournaments. For context, I will be using DraftKings as my site of reference, and I will refer mainly to the $3 entry, 20-entry max tournament that they host each tournament. That being said, a lot of what I'll cover can be translated to use in lower or higher buy-in tournaments. It can also (with some tweaks) be used in a 50-entry or 150-entry max approach.
I understand everyone uses different lineup-building tools, and that's great! I'll be using our awesome lineup builder/optimizer tool here as reference. Each week I'll provide some reflection on last week's tournament, some generic thoughts on the upcoming approach to building multiple lineups, and lastly a quick peak at which players will make up my core for building GPP lineups this week. Let's get to it!
Reflection: Last week's RBC Heritage
First off, what a fun tournament the RBC Heritage turned out to be. We had plenty of star power mixed in with some young, rising stars in the game. The rough was short, the scoring was fierce, and we got a tight finish. What more can we ask for!? Well, Abraham Ancer pulling out the victory for my outright bet would've helped...
Let's turn to my 20-lineup exposures from last weekend, courtesy of the Lineup Optimizer here at RotoBaller. Oddly enough, I never really got comfortable with my builds last week. I knew I wanted a lot of Justin Thomas, and I knew that any non-JT lineups should probably have my second favorite golfer of the week, Justin Rose. However, I ended up adding a lot more value players to my pool in hopes of cycling in more high-upside cheap plays. I think that ended up burning me the most, because I only got 2-of-20 lineups through to Saturday with 6-of-6 made cuts. Most of us already know that's a vital step in making any significant money on DraftKings PGA.
After I exported these 18 lineups or so over to DraftKings, tweaked them a bit, and created two builds of my own, I felt a little better about where I stood, but it was still more players in my pool than I'm used to. I think taking big stands on just one high-priced stud will naturally do that to your builds. Turns out it was guys I was pretty confident in like Harold Varner III, Kevin Kisner, and Shane Lowry that hurt me the most. Obviously Emiliano Grillo, Byeong Hun An, and Bud Cauley didn't help my cause.
All-in-all, I'm not too upset with the results. I have a better feel on how to tackle a build like this moving forward, and Justin Thomas' big run on Sunday helped me get about 70% of my entry fees back. I clearly didn't have enough Webb Simpson, and my Abraham Ancer + Tyrell Hatton lineups just didn't have the right ancillary pieces with them. It happens!
One big thing to keep in mind when it comes to bankroll management and long-term expectations for GPPs is that you will consistently lose money week to week. It's the nature of the beast when you're trying to come up with different combinations that might work, and the guys you take a stand on disappoint you.
That being said, if your process is sound, you should have a week or two along the way that will hit BIG. That's where you get all of your money back and then some. If you can't afford to lose your entry fees five weeks in a row, you should probably step down a notch in terms of which tournament you're entering. Let me know if you have questions about that!
Approach: Travelers Championship
This week's build came much easier to me, probably because there are three guys at the top of the price pool that I'm high on (you'll see who I'm talking about in the next section). When that happens, you can still take a stand on those guys in terms of ownership, but you don't have to cycle in as many other guys in the cheap range to differentiate your lineups. That being said, I am taking some firm stands on cheap players that I am a little worried about, but I'd much rather be in that position than having to add in other golfers I'm not confident in just to fill out my 20 combinations.
My lineups this week will have one of two things. Some will have two studs up top, and it will be a combination of two of the three golfers you'll see below. In that case, I'll have to run out two golfers around the low-$7k to high-$6k range to even out my salary and stay under the cap. The other ones will just focus on one of those studs up top, allowing me then to have two or three $8k or high-$7k guys mixed in, which I am also a fan of.
That's the beauty of max-entering a 20-entry tournament: You don't have to take just one approach. Pick the guys you like for your pool, and create your 20 lineups the best way you can to maximize your exposure to your favorite golfers. This takes a lot of trial/error and tweaking to perfect, but it's a lot of fun and very rewarding when you get the builds you like.
I'm changing up the way I'm presenting my players this week, and I'll be giving you seven guys instead of the three from the RBC Heritage. You'll see below that I'm highlighting three high-priced "Staples" (over $8,500) and four low-priced "Staples" (under $8,500). Understandably, my blurbs for each player will be a little shorter. Let me know what you think about this format and if there's anything else I can include in this series moving forward to help you out. Here's who we're building around at TPC River Highlands in Cromwell, CT this week!
Staples Over $8.5K: Travelers Championship
Dustin Johnson: $9,400 - About 60%
DJ was fantastic from tee-to-green last week. He dunked 20 birdies and an eagle while losing 0.2 strokes putting. This is his preferred putting surface at TPC River Highlands (Poa/Bentgrass), and his game is trending exactly how we want it to. There's also a discount baked in here that we won't get for long if his game truly is right. He's my highest owned golfer, and if it weren't for the next two guys I would be 100% on Johnson.
Bryson DeChambeau: $11,000 - About 55%
DeChambeau played about as well as I could've imagined at two tree-lined courses over the past two weeks. He showed that his approach game is still as strong as ever, and now he's added a massive advantage off the tee. The Scientist has played this track well in the past, and he's itching to get a big win sometime soon. Let's hope his putter stays decent for all four rounds, and we could very well be seeing the start of a big winning streak for Bryson.
Justin Thomas: $10,800 - About 50%
Everything I said last week still applies to JT. If it weren't for a brutally bad putting day on Thursday at Harbour Town, he could've given Webb Simpson a run for his money. I'm kind of upset that he went on that massive charge on Sunday, because that will certainly drive ownership up this week. Even still, Thomas' game is right where we want it to be, and he should be firing on all cylinders at this short, attack-able course.
Staples Under $8.5K: Travelers Championship
Brian Harman: $7,600 - About 45%
Harman's game is solid all around right now. The only thing lacking is a bit more consistency off the tee, which I think will improve at a easier driving track like this one coming up. The course history is phenomenal for the lefty, and I feel very confident in a Top 20 this week with upside for a win.
Joaquin Niemann: $7,900 - About 40%
Niemann made me look silly for getting off him at Harbour Town last week, and I won't make that mistake again. He's the next big thing on tour alongside guys like Viktor Hovland and Collin Morikawa, and his approach game (gained 7 strokes last week) is the big reason why. Niemann should be comfortable off the tee at this layout, and he'll likely have aggressive wedges into these greens all day long.
Keegan Bradley: $7,400 - About 40%
Welcome back to Keegan Bradley life! I love playing this guy in tournaments. His ball-striking is so fun to watch when it's on, and he's played TPC River Highlands very well in the past. Seeing two quiet made cuts since the layoff at tough off-the-tee courses these past couple of weeks makes me feel oddly comfortable about Bradley coming into the Travelers Championship. Let's hope for a made cut and then a big charge over the weekend from the New Englander.
Matthew NeSmith: $6,600 - About 40%
I'm upset I didn't listen to my colleagues last week and get on NeSmith. The youngster's ball-striking on approach shots has been stellar, and he has already shown upside with the putter too. He placed 33rd at Harbour Town last week despite losing 2.2 strokes putting. I'll have a few other $6k cheap guys that I'll need to make the cut too, but NeSmith is my preferred option when I have to combat a lineup that starts with DJ and Bryson.
