PGA DFS: Vegas Report - Northern Trust

5 years ago by Spencer Aguiar

Welcome back to the PGA DFS: Vegas Report. J.T. Poston completed golf's version of the perfect game, becoming only the second player in PGA Tour history to win a tournament with no bogeys over 72 holes. Originally accomplished by Lee Trevino in 1974, Poston's magical run culminated in him earning his first career title in 77 events and presented anyone who backed him pre-tourney with a 100/1 outright victor.

The 26-year-old entered Sunday as a 35/1 longshot to take home the trophy but quickly erased a three-shot deficit, posting an eight-under 62 to eclipse Webb Simpson by one stroke. The victory catapults Poston to 77th in the world and slots him into the 27th position for the FedExCup standings.

Our outright betting card provided a few close calls but failed to get the job done when in contention. Josh Teater (175/1), Johnson Wagner (200/1), Andrew Landry (175/1) and Paul Casey (22/1) all flirted or held the lead at some point during the event but had to settle for finishes between sixth and 19th place. While another victory would have put a massive bow onto our betting year, we have now produced 40 top-10 finishes, four victories and 27 top-six results during the 2019 calendar season. With the first leg of the FedExCup Playoffs finally upon us, let's dive a little deeper into some value plays we will be looking to target this week in New Jersey.

2019 Northern Trust

For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and Fanduel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course.

To see who the RotoBaller staff is selecting in the weekly 'One and Done' contest, click here.

Liberty National Golf Club

7,370 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bentgrass

Liberty National Golf Club has seen some major renovations over the years after dissatisfaction from the players in 2009. Twelve holes were redone before the 2013 edition of this event, with significant changes being made to the greens, fairways and bunkers.

As of today, there are 90 bunkers and 10 water hazards on the course. The fairways are of average width, but nasty fescue and bluegrass rough will come into play on wayward tee shots. The greens are tricky and should be fast at 12+ on the stimpmeter, and the narrow landing zones on the putting surface does make it challenging to hit greens in regulation.

Wind can play a factor if it is blowing in from the Atlantic, and long iron play will be at a premium because of the tiny surfaces. The five par-fours that measure between 450 to 500 yards are BRUTALLY DIFFICULT and will play as the most challenging holes all weekend. Golfers who can maintain their score through that stretch and perform during the par-fives will be at a major advantage all weekend.

Northern Trust

#1 Dustin Johnson 16/1

DK Price $10,700, FD Price $11,900

Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 10.4%

I am not a big fan of this tournament from an outright betting perspective. I don't believe we have enough data to handicap this in a profitable manner, and it does feel a bit like a dart throw if I am being honest.

I try to be as transparent as possible when I write these articles weekly because not all events are as enticing as the general consensus will make you believe. That doesn't mean we still can't try to pinpoint wagers that will yield long-term value, but it is always more challenging to come out ahead when we don't have the ability to stockpile data from past tournaments held at a venue.

In these types of situations, I usually prefer to expand my research out over a more extended period of time and stick to statistics that are more rudimentary. Strokes gained tee to green is about as simple as you are going to get since it incorporates the most basic principles of the game: Who earns the most strokes from the tee to the green? For the sake of parity, the top five options over the past 50 rounds are Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Byeong Hun An and Hideki Matsuyama, and I think Johnson is actually an excellent place to begin our card this weekend at a generous price of 16/1.

It shouldn't come as much of a surprise to you that something must be wrong with Johnson's game if his odds ballooned up to 16/1. The American has lost strokes putting in four consecutive trackable events, making it only the second time in his career that he has gone this many tournaments losing strokes on the greens. In case you were wondering how he rebounded when faced with this scenario in 2013, all he did was win the WGC- HSBC title and gain 19.6 total strokes. Yes, the putting isn't ideal, but Johnson is continuing to strike the ball well and will have his putting come around shortly.

It is beginning to look as if the 35-year-old is trending towards being the lowest owned option at $9,200 or above on DraftKings, but that is precisely what we are hoping to see if we are looking to create high leverage situations against the masses. I'd have priced Johnson at 14/1 to capture the title this weekend in New Jersey and will always take the slightest value on the American when it is presented to us in a non-major event.

#2 Tiger Woods - 30/1

DK Price $9,000 FD Price $10,900

Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 12.7%

I have not been great when it comes to predicting when Tiger Woods will perform this season, but Liberty National does feel like the perfect venue for the 81-time PGA Tour winner to get back on track.

After a poor showing at the Open Championship, all reports have pointed towards Tiger finally being healthy for the start of the FedExCup playoffs - making him an interesting name to consider at a course where he has come close in the past. Back-to-back second-place showings in 2009 and 2013 show that the fifth-ranked player in the world is capable of finding success in New Jersey, and the warmer weather should do wonders for his back.

Despite some poor recent results, Woods has not been shabby from a statistical standpoint as of late and ranks inside the top 10 when it comes to strokes gained approach, par-four scoring between 450 to 500 yards, proximity from over 200 yards, greens in regulation gained and strokes gained tee to green. Woods has been slipping down the betting board all week due to his recent perceived form, but I'd expect one last push from the 43-year-old before this year is over, and the first event of the FedExCup playoffs is the perfect location for him to roar again.

#3 Tyrrell Hatton

DK Price $7,500, FD Price $9,300

Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 6.5%

Tyrrell Hatton has quietly put together a successful run in the past few months. Ten out of 11 made cuts worldwide, including four top-14 results have highlighted his recent form, and the way the Englishman has been striping the ball with his long irons will make him a problematic player for the other 121 competitors if he can get going with his putter.

Hatton has ranked 11th compared to the field during his past 25 rounds in proximity from over 200 yards and has been a hot putter away from having a chance to win some of these titles recently. While it is never a great sign when a player is struggling with a particular aspect of their game, the 42nd-ranked player in the world has proven to us that he capable of being one of the better players in the world with his flat stick, finishing 2018 ranked third on the European Tour in putts per GIR. 100/1 is a lavish price on Hatton this weekend, and his 6.5% projected ownership on DraftKings makes him an interesting contrarian option to consider in the $7,000 price range.

My Top 30 Ranked Golfers For The Week

Key Stats: GIR 22.5%, Proximity Over 200 Yards 22.5%, Par-Five Birdie Or Better Percentage 20%, Strokes Gained Approach 20% and Par-Four Average 15%

60% Stats/30% Form/10% Course History

Head-to-Head Play of the Week

No head-to-head play this week. We will resume next weekend at the Northern Trust.

2019 Head-to-Head Record (16-9-2)

+8.33 Units Year-To-Date From H2H Bets

Tournament	Head-to-Head Bet	Bet	My Picks Finish	Opponent Finish Advertising	Result	Total
Safeway Open	Sangmoon Bae +130 Over Chris Kirk	1.00 Units to Win 1.30	MC (+2)	MC (E)	Loss	-1.00
CIMB Classic	Kevin Na -120 over Kevin Tway	1.50 Units to Win 1.25	T19 (-17)	T27 (-13)	Win	1.25
CJ Cup	Paul Casey +100 over Marc Leishman	1.25 Units to Win 1.25	T18 (-8)	T18 (-8)	Push	0
WGC-HSBC	Thomas Pieters +120 over Kevin Na	1.00 Units to Win 1.20	T18 (-1)	T54 (+10)	Win	1.20
Shriners	Austin Cook +100 over Russell Henley	1.00 Units to Win 1.00	MC (+1)	MC (-1)	Loss	-1.00
Mayakoba	Kevin Chappell +100 over Charley Hoffman	1.25 Units to Win 1.25	T41 (-9)	MC (+2)	Win	1.25
RSM Classic	Patrick Rodgers -105 over Bronson Burgoon	1.05 Units to Win 1.00	2nd (-19)	MC (+2)	Win	1.00
Sony Open	Jimmy Walker -115 over Kevin Na	1.15 Units to Win 1.00	T51 (-6)	Did Not Start	Push	0
Desert Classic	Anders Albertson -110 over Anirban Lahiri	1.10 Units to Win 1.00	T34 (-14)	MC (-8)	Win	1.00
Farmers Insurance	J.B. Holmes +130 over Branden Grace	0.70 Units to Win 0.91	MC (+4)	MC (+3)	Loss	-0.70
Farmers Insurance	Jordan Spieth -110 over Alex Noren	1.10 Units to Win 1.00	T35 (-7)	MC (E)	Win	1.00
Waste Management	Ryan Palmer +105 over Kevin Tway	1.00 Units to Win 1.05	T60 (E)	MC (E)	Win	1.05
Genesis Open	Hideki Matsuyama -110 over Jordan Spieth	1.10 Units to Win 1.00	T9 (-7)	T51 (+1)	Win	1.00
Honda Classic	Zach Johnson -115 over Kiradech Aphibarnrat	1.43 Units to Win 1.25	T59 (+3)	MC (+10)	Win	1.25
Arnold Palmer	Chesson Hadley -110 over Chris Kirk	0.82 Units to win 0.75	T17 (-5)	T15 (-6)	Loss	-0.82
Players Championship	Tiger Woods +105 over Rickie Fowler	0.75 Units to win 0.79	T30 (-6)	T47 (-3)	Win	0.79
Valero Texas Open	Trey Mullinax -110 over Justin Harding	1.10 Units to Win 1.00	MDF (+1)	MC (+4)	Win	1.00
Masters	Bubba Watson -115 over Louis Oosthuizen	1.15 Units to Win 1.00	T12 (-8)	T29 (-4)	Win	1.00
Wells Fargo Championship	Joel Damen +120 over Chez Reavie	0.75 Units to win 0.90	2nd (-12)	T18 (-5)	Win	0.90
Byron Nelson	Trey Mullinax -105 over Brian Stuard	1.05 Units to Win 1.00	MC (+5)	T59 (-7)	Loss	-1.05
PGA Championship	Dylan Frittelli -105 over Cameron Champ	1.05 Units to Win 1.00	MC (+8)	T54 (+9)	Loss	-1.05
Memorial Tournament	Jason Kokrak -110 over Kyle Stanley	1.10 Units to Win 1.00	T62 (+3)	MC (+2)	Win	1.00
Canadian Open	Ollie Schniederjans -110 over Nick Taylor	1.10 Units to Win 1.00	MC (+1)	-6 (T27)	Loss	-1.10
U.S. Open	Tiger Woods +160 over Rory McIlroy	1.00 Units to Win 1.60	T21 (-2)	T9 (-5)	Loss	-1.00
3M Open	Lucas Glover +100 over Charley Hoffman	1.25 Units to Win 1.25	T7 (-16)	MC (E)	Win	1.25
John Deere Classic	Talor Gooch +100 over Beau Hossler	1.25 Units to Win 1.25	MDF (-2)	T26 (-12)	Loss	-1.25
WGC-St. Jude	Eddie Pepperell +170 over Keegan Bradley	.80 Units to Win 1.36	T51 (+4)	T61 (+12)	Win	1.36

2019 Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10

Player	Event	Odds	Finish Position
Matt Kuchar	Mayakoba Golf Classic	66	1
Corey Conners	Valero Texas Open	200	1
Rory McIlroy	Canadian Open	10	1
Brooks Koepka	WGC- St. Jude	12	1
Chesson Hadley	CIMB Classic	110	T2
Dustin Johnson	Masters	12	T2
Adam Scott	Memorial	33	2
Ryan Palmer	CJ Cup	150	T3
Sam Ryder	Shriners Hospitals	80	3
Chez Reavie	Sony Open	80	T3
Justin Thomas	Waste Management	10	3
Tommy Fleetwood	Arnold Palmer	35	T3
Rafa Cabrera-Bello	Arnold Palmer	60	T3
Scott Piercy	RBC Heritage	150	T3
Xander Schaufele	U.S. Open	28	T3
Tony Finau	Open Championship	80	3
Marc Leishman	WGC- St. Jude	66	3
Lucas Glover	Honda Classic	60	T4
Brooks Koepka	Byron Nelson	7	T4
Jason Day	CJ Cup	13	T5
Sergio Garcia	WGC-Match Play	45	T5
Jason Day	Masters	40	T5
Marc Leishman	Memorial	66	5
Kevin Tway	Travelers	150	T5
Adam Hadwin	Canadian Open	70	6
Rickie Fowler	Open Championship	33	T6
Zach Johnson	RSM Classic	40	T7
Kevin Kisner	RSM Classic	40	T7
Troy Merritt	3M Open	175	T7
Lucas Glover	3M Open	90	T7
Webb Simpson	TOC	25	8
Jason Day	Players Championship	40	T8
Hideki Matsuyama	Players Championship	40	T8
Jason Day	Travelers	20	T8
J.B. Holmes	Safeway Open	60	9
Gary Woodland	Farmers Insurance	28	T9
Hideki Matsuyama	Genesis Open	30	T9
Shubankar Sharma	CIMB Classic	150	T10
Troy Merritt	RBC Heritage	250	T10