PGA DFS: Vegas Report - Tour Championship

5 years ago by Spencer Aguiar

Welcome back to the PGA DFS: Vegas Report. Justin Thomas steamrolled the BMW Championship, collecting slightly over 1.6 million dollars and earning the top spot going into this week's Tour Championship.

That advantage will secure him a head start over the pack, and he will start the proceedings at 10-under par, followed closely by Patrick Cantlay at eight-under and Brooks Koepka at seven-under.

Here is the full list of where everyone will be beginning as we head to East Lake:
-10 — Justin Thomas
-8 — Patrick Cantlay
-7 — Brooks Koepka
-6 — Patrick Reed
-5 — Rory McIlroy
-4 — Jon Rahm, Matt Kuchar, Xander Schauffele, Webb Simpson, Abraham Ancer
-3 — Gary Woodland, Tony Finau, Adam Scott, Dustin Johnson, Hideki Matsuyama
-2 — Paul Casey, Justin Rose, Brandt Snedeker, Rickie Fowler, Kevin Kisner
-1 — Marc Leishman, Tommy Fleetwood, Corey Conners, Sungjae Im, Chez Reavie
Even — Bryson DeChambeau, Louis Oosthuizen, Charles Howell III, Lucas Glover, Jason Kokrak

2019 Tour Championship

For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and Fanduel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course.

To see who the RotoBaller staff is selecting in the weekly 'One and Done' contest, click here.

East Lake

7,350 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Bermuda

We have finally made it to the final tournament of the 2019 calendar season, and what a year it has been for us from an outright betting perspective. Four victories, 25 top-five results and an additional 15 top-10 finishes. Our head-to-head betting record of (16-9-2) earned us 8.33 units and put us in the green for the second consecutive year of doing this article. But things are not quite over yet, and we will get one more crack at ending the year with a bang.

East Lake isn't a course where you can go extremely low, so players further back in the standings will need an upper-level performance if they want to get themselves into contention. The par-fours are challenging and long, and being able to avoid bogey will be crucial. There are two par-fives at the facility that yield over a 40 percent birdie rate and a small eagle chance, so those will be the holes where the 30 players in the field can make a move.

The greens feature Bermuda grass with shaved runoffs, making approach shots to the correct quadrant a must. Golfers who miss their target will need to be able to gain strokes around the green, and there are 74 bunkers and six water hazards at the venue. Perhaps more so than most weeks, we also need to look at mental fortitude. With 15 million dollars on the line, there is going to be no room for error to wilt under the pressure.

Tour Championship Bets

While most people are touting the Tour Championship by giving recommendations for a standard stroke play event, I feel more comfortable using the set scoring system and trying to utilize basic math. I wouldn't talk anyone out of betting this as a typical stroke play tournament, but I do have some concerns that a player like Brooks Koepka could win the FedExCup Championship but lose the imaginary stroke-play portion of the wager because someone entirely out of left field posted a total that Koepka wasn't even aware needed to be caught. That isn't to say he still couldn't win it either way, but I'd prefer to have him know what needs to be done to win the 15 million dollars and not rely on a made-up contest for betting purposes.

Golf is a volatile game and win equity will change drastically from one day to the next, but I have the big four players of Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, Brooks Koepka and Rory Mcilroy at roughly 71 percent to be crowned the winner of the season-long title before a single ball has been hit. By no means does that make it a lock that one of those four does indeed find the winners circle, but it does show that if we were offered that specific group as a bet against the field, we should be expecting to gain almost a 19 percent edge in implied probability when given your generic -110 offerings on both sides. Those percentages will change if someone goes low on Thursday, but you would have to imagine that Thomas would end the chances for most in the field with a four-under 66 during the opening day.

However, despite Thomas being my favorite to capture his second FedExCup title, it isn't a wager I can get behind at his current price of 2/1. I have him closer to a 25% win probability - which means we are looking at 4/1 being the proper price on the American. For what it is worth, only two golfers graded out as long-term profitable plays for me, and I decided to do something different for the article this week. According to my math, Brooks Koepka 6/1 and Rory McIlroy 8/1 are both yielding value, and there is a way that we can back both selections and do so favorably. Webb Simpson didn't miss the threshold by much at 22/1, but I'd prefer to target the top of the board and find potential hedge spots if I am still in contention come Sunday.

I have already locked in Koepka/Rory versus the field at 3.5/1 and am going to attempt to gain six units on this wager, which means to do so, I must risk 1.75 units to win slightly over that amount. To break this bet down further, I need to have a 29.16% win equity to place this profitably. My math has Koepka and McIlroy trending at 34.28% and gives us around a five percent edge on our selection this weekend. The play will be profitable as long as you can find above 2.9/1 on both against the field, but if you are having issues locating that in your market, the bet becomes close to breakeven if you make two separate plays on Koepka at 6/1 and McIlroy at 8/1. We lose some of our advantages when placing the two separately because unlike the first example, at least one of those bets will have to lose - which decreases our overall win total. The original idea provides us an all or nothing scenario where we don't have to worry about that situation and allows us to reap all the rewards without giving anything back on the other end.

Recommended Bets:

Brooks Koepka/Rory McIlroy versus the field 3.5/1 OR
Brooks Koepka Outright - 6/1 & Rory McIlroy 8/1

My Top 30 Ranked Golfers For The Week

Key Stats: Ball Striking 20%, Par-Five Birdie or Better Percentage 20%, Bogey Avoidance 15%, Strokes Gained Off the Tee 15%, Strokes Gained Around the Green 10%, Proximity From 175+ Yards 10% and Par-Four Average 10%

50% Stats/30% Form/20% Course History

Head-to-Head Play of the Week

No head-to-head play this week.

2019 Head-to-Head Record (16-9-2)

+8.33 Units Year-To-Date From H2H Bets

Tournament	Head-to-Head Bet	Bet	My Picks Finish	Opponent Finish	Result	Total
Safeway Open	Sangmoon Bae +130 Over Chris Kirk	1.00 Units to Win 1.30	MC (+2)	MC (E)	Loss	-1.00
CIMB Classic	Kevin Na -120 over Kevin Tway Advertising	1.50 Units to Win 1.25	T19 (-17)	T27 (-13)	Win	1.25
CJ Cup	Paul Casey +100 over Marc Leishman	1.25 Units to Win 1.25	T18 (-8)	T18 (-8)	Push	0
WGC-HSBC	Thomas Pieters +120 over Kevin Na	1.00 Units to Win 1.20	T18 (-1)	T54 (+10)	Win	1.20
Shriners	Austin Cook +100 over Russell Henley	1.00 Units to Win 1.00	MC (+1)	MC (-1)	Loss	-1.00
Mayakoba	Kevin Chappell +100 over Charley Hoffman	1.25 Units to Win 1.25	T41 (-9)	MC (+2)	Win	1.25
RSM Classic	Patrick Rodgers -105 over Bronson Burgoon	1.05 Units to Win 1.00	2nd (-19)	MC (+2)	Win	1.00
Sony Open	Jimmy Walker -115 over Kevin Na	1.15 Units to Win 1.00	T51 (-6)	Did Not Start	Push	0
Desert Classic	Anders Albertson -110 over Anirban Lahiri	1.10 Units to Win 1.00	T34 (-14)	MC (-8)	Win	1.00
Farmers Insurance	J.B. Holmes +130 over Branden Grace	0.70 Units to Win 0.91	MC (+4)	MC (+3)	Loss	-0.70
Farmers Insurance	Jordan Spieth -110 over Alex Noren	1.10 Units to Win 1.00	T35 (-7)	MC (E)	Win	1.00
Waste Management	Ryan Palmer +105 over Kevin Tway	1.00 Units to Win 1.05	T60 (E)	MC (E)	Win	1.05
Genesis Open	Hideki Matsuyama -110 over Jordan Spieth	1.10 Units to Win 1.00	T9 (-7)	T51 (+1)	Win	1.00
Honda Classic	Zach Johnson -115 over Kiradech Aphibarnrat	1.43 Units to Win 1.25	T59 (+3)	MC (+10)	Win	1.25
Arnold Palmer	Chesson Hadley -110 over Chris Kirk	0.82 Units to win 0.75	T17 (-5)	T15 (-6)	Loss	-0.82
Players Championship	Tiger Woods +105 over Rickie Fowler	0.75 Units to win 0.79	T30 (-6)	T47 (-3)	Win	0.79
Valero Texas Open	Trey Mullinax -110 over Justin Harding	1.10 Units to Win 1.00	MDF (+1)	MC (+4)	Win	1.00
Masters	Bubba Watson -115 over Louis Oosthuizen	1.15 Units to Win 1.00	T12 (-8)	T29 (-4)	Win	1.00
Wells Fargo Championship	Joel Damen +120 over Chez Reavie	0.75 Units to win 0.90	2nd (-12)	T18 (-5)	Win	0.90
Byron Nelson	Trey Mullinax -105 over Brian Stuard	1.05 Units to Win 1.00	MC (+5)	T59 (-7)	Loss	-1.05
PGA Championship	Dylan Frittelli -105 over Cameron Champ	1.05 Units to Win 1.00	MC (+8)	T54 (+9)	Loss	-1.05
Memorial Tournament	Jason Kokrak -110 over Kyle Stanley	1.10 Units to Win 1.00	T62 (+3)	MC (+2)	Win	1.00
Canadian Open	Ollie Schniederjans -110 over Nick Taylor	1.10 Units to Win 1.00	MC (+1)	-6 (T27)	Loss	-1.10
U.S. Open	Tiger Woods +160 over Rory McIlroy	1.00 Units to Win 1.60	T21 (-2)	T9 (-5)	Loss	-1.00
3M Open	Lucas Glover +100 over Charley Hoffman	1.25 Units to Win 1.25	T7 (-16)	MC (E)	Win	1.25
John Deere Classic	Talor Gooch +100 over Beau Hossler	1.25 Units to Win 1.25	MDF (-2)	T26 (-12)	Loss	-1.25
WGC-St. Jude	Eddie Pepperell +170 over Keegan Bradley	.80 Units to Win 1.36	T51 (+4)	T61 (+12)	Win	1.36

2019 Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10

Player	Event	Odds	Finish Position
Matt Kuchar	Mayakoba Golf Classic	66	1
Corey Conners	Valero Texas Open	200	1
Rory McIlroy	Canadian Open	10	1
Brooks Koepka	WGC- St. Jude	12	1
Chesson Hadley	CIMB Classic	110	T2
Dustin Johnson	Masters	12	T2
Adam Scott	Memorial	33	2
Ryan Palmer	CJ Cup	150	T3
Sam Ryder	Shriners Hospitals	80	3
Chez Reavie	Sony Open	80	T3
Justin Thomas	Waste Management	10	3
Tommy Fleetwood	Arnold Palmer	35	T3
Rafa Cabrera-Bello	Arnold Palmer	60	T3
Scott Piercy	RBC Heritage	150	T3
Xander Schaufele	U.S. Open	28	T3
Tony Finau	Open Championship	80	3
Marc Leishman	WGC- St. Jude	66	3
Lucas Glover	Honda Classic	60	T4
Brooks Koepka	Byron Nelson	7	T4
Jason Day	CJ Cup	13	T5
Sergio Garcia	WGC-Match Play	45	T5
Jason Day	Masters	40	T5
Marc Leishman	Memorial	66	5
Kevin Tway	Travelers	150	T5
Adam Hadwin	Canadian Open	70	6
Rickie Fowler	Open Championship	33	T6
Zach Johnson	RSM Classic	40	T7
Kevin Kisner	RSM Classic	40	T7
Troy Merritt	3M Open	175	T7
Lucas Glover	3M Open	90	T7
Webb Simpson	TOC	25	8
Jason Day	Players Championship	40	T8
Hideki Matsuyama	Players Championship	40	T8
Jason Day	Travelers	20	T8
J.B. Holmes	Safeway Open	60	9
Gary Woodland	Farmers Insurance	28	T9
Hideki Matsuyama	Genesis Open	30	T9
Shubankar Sharma	CIMB Classic	150	T10
Troy Merritt	RBC Heritage	250	T10