RADIO
Welcome back to the PGA DFS: Vegas Report. After two straight runner-up betting finishes at the Open Championship and John Deere Classic, we managed to capture our first outright win with Dustin Johnson at the RBC Canadian Open. As I mentioned in my original betting write-up for Glen Abbey, I thought there was a significant possibility that Johnson could gain a considerable advantage over the field by missing the cut at Carnoustie the week prior. It wasn't so much because players that play long into the weekend are less equipped for the following week, but I did think that if you gave the best player in the world a slight advantage and extra rest, it could turn into a massive gain.
The PGA DFS: Vegas Report has only been up and running for four tournaments, but I am proud of the early success we have had. Three top-two finishes and an additional top-10 has provided us with a scorching start to these write-ups. There has been some slight volatility to the outright betting picks, but you have to remember we are looking for players that have a higher probability of capturing the title, consistency does not matter. I think that is ideally the way you need to think about GPP tournaments also. You need to select your favorite top-end plays when putting together a lineup, but you also need to differentiate yourself with some outside of the box volatility. These picks may miss the cut, but if they get hot for a couple of rounds, these are the kind of players that have a chance to provide more than a middle-of-the-pack type of finish.
Cash-games and head-to-head bets are the exact opposite. We are looking to plod our way to victory. It doesn't mean we won't find scenarios that we can have the upside and consistency coincide, but it is more important to find consistent players we like and match them up against inconsistent players that are not grading out well for us. The biggest mistake new bettors make is when they place a head-to-head bet only because they like the player they are getting in the matchup. The opponent in the matchup is just as important as the player you are betting on to win. If you view it any other way, you are just flipping coins weekly.
Gambling of any kind always comes down to value and more importantly identifying edges. I am not the biggest proponent of betting 7/1 golfers, but if that's where the value is being offered for the week, sometimes you need to bite the bullet and take the favorite, as in the case with Dustin Johnson in Canada. With the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational on tap, let's take a look at value plays we will be targeting.
For a full review of the DraftKings PGA Slate this weekend, check out Seth Finkelstein's column reviewing picks at every price point.
And for a more in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and Fanduel plays, check out Joe Nicely's PGA DFS: Horse For The Course column, providing the best fits for the week's course.
Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots.
2018 WGC-Bridgestone Invitational - Firestone Country Club - 7,400 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Bent/Poa Annua
This week, the PGA Tour heads to Akron, Ohio for the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational and it is shaping up to be one of the most challenging tournaments of the year from not only a course perspective but also from a strength of the field point of view. As of right now, the entire top 50 in the current Official World Golf Rankings are in the field for the third World Golf Championship event of the year. Tiger Woods has captured the title a whopping eight times, winning it most recently in his last appearance here in 2013, and Hideki Matsuyama is the defending champion at Firestone, winning the tournament at 16-under par in 2017. During Matsuyama's win, he tied the course record during his final round, shooting a nine-under 61.
However, despite Matsuyama's 61 last year, Firestone is an incredibly monotonous course. Since 2014, the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational is in the bottom five of all events when it comes to birdie and eagle rates. The winning score will make the course look more accessible than it is because there aren't a ton of spots to get yourself into trouble. Most players will string together par after par and will need to capitalize when the rare birdie opportunity arises. Seven of the par-fours range from 450 to 500 yards, which will make strokes gained off the tee and strokes gained approach essential.
Pick to Win
Rory McIlroy (12/1, DK Price $11,300, FD Price $12,100)
Let's face it, this is an extremely difficult betting week. There is a case that can be made for all your high-end betting options and an equally strong rebuttal on why you shouldn't choose them. A golfer like Dustin Johnson is unbeatable when he is on top of his game, but I question if he will be able to keep up his intensity and focus two weeks in a row, even though he has done it before. After doing this for all players 25/1 or less, I landed on one golfer that I thought had the best chance to have success here in Ohio. A couple of weeks ago, I wrote about Rory McIlroy being my pick to win at the Open Championship, and even though he wasn't able to capture the Claret Jug, I left Carnoustie more confident than I started the tournament that the Irishman was on the cusp of regaining his dominance.
McIlroy's skills have never been the issue. In fact, I'd go as far as to say that he is potentially one of the top-five most talented players ever to play the game. The 29-year-old and his golfing transgressions have always stemmed from a lack of commitment and absence of interest. However, right before the Open Championship, I noticed McIlroy's demeanor begin to change. He once again started to walk, talk and act like the player that many labeled as the future of golf and eventual dethroner of Tiger Woods. From a statistical standpoint, McIlroy has been good over the past year, with his results not always matching his level of production. In his last 100 rounds compared to the field, he ranks first in driving distance, second in strokes gained off the tee, second in proximity over 200 yards and fourth in ball striking. Long Irons and length off the tee are going to be vital at Firestone, and he grades out as well as anybody in those key stats. Rain appears to be in the early forecast leading up to the tournament and a soft course has always been where McIlroy performs best. It doesn't hurt that the current seventh-ranked golfer in the world has been on record numerous times stating that Firestone is one of his favorite courses on tour and where he feels most comfortable.
I understand that on the surface 12/1 is not some eye-popping number, and entirely bakes in the former No. 1 ranked golfers past success, but I think McIlroy is set to go one of two ways. A win will either be right around the corner, which makes him a viable option both here and for next week's PGA Championship or maybe all of this self-confidence McIlroy is exuding will just turn into a mirage of sorts. Either way, I don't mind giving McIlroy a couple of tournaments to see which way this ends up going and with his course history here and at the PGA Championship, I'd hate to not be in front of his potential breakthrough. McIlroy is a top three favorite on DraftKings, Fanduel and in the betting market.
Sleepers
Justin Thomas (30/1, DK Price $8,800, FD Price, $11,400)
Justin Thomas is by far and away the most egregiously priced player across the board. Fanduel has him closest to his actual value, rating him as the seventh most expensive player on their site, but DraftKings and the majority of sportsbooks have him assessed as only the 13th and 12th highest priced player. If you flipped Thomas with many of his counterparts between 16/1 to 25/1 or even with players around the $10,000 range on DraftKings, many would fail to notice a change, and in actuality, you would probably have a more precise list.
Thomas opened the week at 33/1 but has already been bet down to 30/1. I would imagine that this number will continue to drop and will eventually reach closer to the range that he should be, so if you want to bet him, make sure you get on it fast! There is no doubt that the American has regressed statistically over the past couple of months, but there is nothing in his recent form that makes me extremely worried. He has still made 20 of his last 21 cuts, provided two top-10s in his previous five tournaments and was a winner just 11 events ago. 30/1 is the exact range that Thomas was in pre-PGA Championship last year. Since his first Major win, he has won three more times on tour and has had two additional second-place finishes in just 22 tournaments. Thomas is providing some of the best betting value towards the top of the board that we have seen in a long time and is without a doubt worth a flier. On DraftKings and Fanduel, the American is going to be one of the most popular options, but with the WGC-Bridgestone being a no-cut event, I think you have to roster Thomas and differentiate your lineups elsewhere.
Henrik Stenson (33/1, DK Price $9,000, FD Price $11,500)
Henrik Stenson's elbow injury that forced him to withdraw from the Scottish Open and struggle through the Open Championship does offer a hint of concern. But I also think we can cope with the potential for disaster and the possibility of upside in a unique way. At the time of writing this, Stenson is currently projected to be the second highest owned player on DraftKings. Regardless of how much I like the Swede this week, that number seems abnormally high with the chance that Stenson may not be entirely healthy. There's a possibility of poor play, or even worse a withdrawal. For that reason, I think Stenson makes for an interesting full fade on DFS sites but an intriguing outright bet.
As my third betting choice at odds of 33/1, I am willing to take a gamble that the 42-year-old is fully ready to go for the Bridgestone Invitational. However, if he isn't, I am ok with the possibility of losing one outright bet, instead of going down with the ship on DFS sites. If Stenson is healthy, there's a lot to like about him this week. In his last 100 rounds compared to the field, he ranks first in strokes gained approach, first in greens in regulation gained, first in bogey avoidance, first in proximity from 200 or more yards and second in ball striking. The only real statistical flaw I see from the 17th-ranked golfer in the world is his lack of birdies made recently. Stenson only comes into the week ranked 41st compared to the field in his last 24 rounds. If you are more of a risk taker and don't mind the substantial ownership on Stenson, he still may make for a fine option, but I know that I would rather hedge some of my exposure. If things do go severely wrong, sure you lose your outright bet, but you will also eliminate almost 20 percent of DFS lineups in the process, and that alone should gain you back most of your betting investment.
Patrick Cantlay (66/1, DK Price $8,200, FD Price $9,700)
Patrick Cantlay will be making just his first trip to Firestone Country Club but his game appears like it will translate well to the venue, and his odds are about 1.5 times too high. Cantlay has been on the verge of a massive breakthrough for a while now. He won last year's Shriners Hospitals for Children Open in Las Vegas, but the American has the kind of game that is approaching an even more meaningful coming out party at some point. Cantlay has finished in the top-15 in six of his 14 tournaments played this year and is coming off of a share of 12th place at the Open Championship.
In his last 24 rounds compared to the field, he ranks in the top 25 in strokes gained approach, par-four scoring between 450 to 500 yards, strokes gained off the tee, greens in regulation gained, driving distance, birdies and strokes gained ball striking. He is another player that I don't think his 66/1 price will last long and probably belongs more in the 45/1 range. Cantlay is the 19th highest priced player on DraftKings, 27th on Fanduel and 28th in the betting market.
Bonus Bomb
Brendan Steele (225/1, DK Price $6,900, FD Price $8,700)
The bottom of the market is very uninspiring this week, but Brendan Steele is an intriguing option at 225/1. Steele has not been great as of late, which is most likely why we are getting such a generous price on him, but despite his current form, the American is the kind of player that provides his best results at long courses.
In his last 24 rounds compared to the field, the 35-year-old ranks seventh in strokes gained off the tee, seventh in ball striking and 10th in driving distance. Steele has produced top-20 showings in both WGC events so far this season and recorded a top-25 here at Bridgestone last year. I think he may make for a better bet in the top-10 market because of his inability mentally to close out tournaments, but at astronomical odds of 225/1, I am willing to take a chance that Steele finds a way to put everything together this week. Steele is 43rd on Fanduel, 53rd on DraftKings, but only the 65th priced played in the betting market.
Head-to-Head Play of the Week
Brendan Steele -110 over Jhonattan Vegas -110
Brendan Steele $6,900 price tag on DraftKings vs. Jhonattan Vegas $6,800 price tag
Brendan Steele 10 percent projected ownership vs. Jhonattan Vegas 2.7 percent projected ownership
The no-cut feature of a WGC event makes it much more difficult to breakdown head-to-head bets this week. The edge that we can gain by correctly identifying players that are grading out well for us and placing them against volatile players that may miss the cut is not possible. In theory, every bet becomes much closer in odds because all players will have four rounds to try and post a low score and it may only take one round to change the whole complexion of the bet.
I have already broken down why I liked Steele in the section above so let's instead get more into why I dislike Jhonattan Vegas. Of the 73 players in the field, Vegas ranks in the bottom 15 in par-four scoring from 450 to 500 yards, greens in regulation gained, bogey avoidance and birdies gained over the past 50 rounds. Firestone is a very challenging course to score at, and if you aren't hitting greens in regulation, there will be even less of a chance you will find reasonable looks for a circle on your scorecard. I do slightly worry that Vegas will be able to put together some upside potential in one of his four rounds and Steele is far from a lock to provide consistency throughout, but this is a price that is currently presenting value and should be on the move in our favor before the tournament starts.
The other two bets that I wanted to discuss fall more into the coin flip situation I was saying needed to be avoided at the beginning of the article. Sometimes, though, the math is so far in your favor that you need to consider some outside of the box options.
Jordan Spieth +160 over Justin Rose -185
Rory McIlroy +155 over Dustin Johnson -175
I do believe Rose and Johnson should be favorites in their matchups but the implied probability that Spieth is only winning 38.5 percent of the time and McIlroy is just winning 39.2 percent is just too shallow. If we estimate that McIlroy and Spieth should each win their given matchup 45 percent of the time, which I think is a fair estimation, and we put a full unit on each wager 100 times, we should expect to win 17 units through 100 bets on Spieth over Rose and 14.75 units through 100 bets on McIlroy over Johnson.
With a Unit being $100
45 wins of Spieth over Rose= $7,200 (45 wins x $160 profit)
55 losses of Spieth over Rose= -$5,500 (55 losses x $100)
$7,200 of winnings - $5,500 of losses
Total= $1,700 or 17 units.
45 wins of McIlroy over Johnson =$6,975 (45 wins x $155 profit)
55 losses of McIlroy over Johnson = -$5,500 (55 losses x $100)
$6,975 of winnings - $5,500 of losses
Total= $1,475 or 14.75 units
The one crucial thing I want to note is when you are trying to predict the exact likelihood a player should win, you must always be conservative and are much better off underestimating than overestimating. When you view value in this sense, you must always look at it from a long-term duration because even if 45 percent is the correct estimation on both players, there is still a 30.25 percent likelihood that both bets will lose this week. Remember, we gain value over 1000s and 1000s of wagers, not just from one week.
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