PGA DFS: Vegas Report - WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play

Welcome back to the PGA DFS: Vegas Report. Paul Casey captured his second straight win at the Valspar Championship, outlasting second-place finishers Louis Oosthuizen and Jason Kokrak by one stroke. Ironically, the back-to-back victories are Casey's only successes in America since the Shell Houston Open in 2009, but the triumph may help to dispel some of the notions of Casey's inability to close.

Our outright bets hit a wall during the event. We registered a season-low seven out of 10 golfers making the weekend and failed to record a finish better than a share of 18th place. Looking back on it, we may have gone too far down the betting board for our selections, and it made things worse that one of the premier players in the field took down the title.

Thankfully, though, we were able to avoid getting tied into a head-to-head bet, which almost surely would have yielded questionable results with our lack of production on the week. Picking and choosing your spots is vital, and we remain (10-4-2) on the season for a profit of +7.27 units. With the WGC-Match Play on tap, let's dive into some value plays we will be targetting at Austin Country Club.

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2019 WGC-Match Play - Austin Country Club

7,108 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bermuda

We head back to a Pete Dye-designed course for the second time in three weeks, and the venue features all the usual quirks that you would expect of a diabolical Dye-designed site.

Austin Country Club is a short, strategical Par 71 that plays just over 7,100 yards and features tree-lined parklands with some water that comes into play. There are forced carries and a great deal of risk-reward holes spread throughout the facility. The greens are fast and protected by pot bunkers, and the forecast can get windy in a hurry. Players will need to have good course management, total driving ability and pristine wedge play to succeed, and all par-fives are reachable in two strokes.

WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Best Bets

Unlike most WGC events, there is a great deal of luck that can come into play here. A good draw helps, but everything can quickly open up if one of the favorites falters out of his group. Projecting how the brackets are going to play out is important, but it is just as likely to flip upside down and become something vastly different than you would have ever expected. That doesn't mean we can't try to predict the future but be careful of eliminating a player you like from consideration because of a potential Sweet Sixteen matchup that could be less than ideal.

From this point forward, I have decided to change up the dynamics of the article. Included below are 10 golfers that I would contemplate placing a wager on at the WGC-Match Play. That doesn't mean you should bet every name listed, and in fact, it would be nearly impossible to have a winning week if you did. Instead, this is meant to serve as a tool for you to examine and try to piece together your own wagers. Remember, you want to try and win around the same amount on every player, so keep that in mind when putting together your choices this weekend.

 

#1 Tony Finau - 35/1, DK Price $9,000

Outside of Bubba Watson and Alex Noren, Tony Finau was the player that impressed me most during the 2018 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play. Finau recorded victories over Thomas Pieters and Kevin Na on the opening two days before falling to eventual third-place finisher Alex Noren. In my opinion, Noren was the best player over the five days, and if it weren't for his implosion against Kevin Kisner in the semi-finals, he might have walked out of the event as the winner. It took Noren draining a 15-foot putt on the final hole to dispatch of Finau during their match, and it makes sense that this format would be perfect for the big-hitting American.

Aside from the fact that Finau can risk taking on spectacular shots and not having to worry about anything other than losing a single hole, the structure of the event is perfect for the 29-year-old. Finau grew up as a youngster playing skins games, traveling to different parts of the country with his brother, putting on the line all the money he had to his name. And in many cases, risking more than he could afford to lose. His draw is not perfect getting paired with Ian Poulter, Kevin Kisner and Keith Mitchell, but it is unlikely that any of the three would run the table, and I think we see Finau's upside shine through. Once he is out of the quadrant, some of the easier paths come from the right side of the bracket, and there is potential for extremely favorable draws to open up in front of him.

#2 Xander Schauffele - 35/1, DK Price $9,400

Xander Schauffele wasn't done any favors with his draw at the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play. Not only did he pull the more difficult side of the bracket, but his particular quadrant has an intense Ryder Cup feel to it. Rafa Cabrera Bello, Tyrrell Hatton and Lee Westwood make up his opponents, and if he is able to advance, he could be looking at a Sweet 16 matchup versus Jon Rahm and an Elite Eight pairing against Dustin Johnson. For what it is worth, I don't have Rahm or Johnson getting out of their groups, but there is at least some possibility that he would have to run the gauntlet to win this tournament.

Schauffele is an aggressive golfer that seems to understand match play settings. He was an unlucky loser out of his group last year, winning his first two matches before falling to Sergio Garcia 3 and 1. His total points produced would have been good enough to advance out of a vast majority of the groups, but that is sometimes the nature of the beast when dealing with this format. It didn't help that he ran into a buzzsaw performance from Garcia and saw his stay cut short, but I don't believe the American has drawn nearly as tricky of a group as it seems on paper this time around. Cabrera Bello will be his most challenging opponent, but the 25-year-old will get him in his final match, and there is always a possibility that the Spaniard could be eliminated by the time they meet.

#3 Henrik Stenson - 66/1, DK Price $7,600

Henrik Stenson's finishing position of a share of 24th place at the Valspar Championship didn't quite explain the quality form that he displayed. The Swede led the field in strokes gained approach, earning 7.290 shots and also concluded the event in sixth when it came to total strokes gained tee to green.

Like most weeks recently, his undoing came on the greens, where he lost 2.078 strokes putting, placing him 63rd in the field. His draw of Jason Day, Phil Mickelson and Jim Furyk is the unofficial "group of death," but the player that emerges from the ashes can make a deep run this weekend. I am not sold on Furyk's chances, and while I like Day, there is still a potential withdrawal due to his back injury. The Swede will draw Mickelson on day one, and if he can pull off the small upset, there are ways for the bracket to begin to open up for him.

#4 Byeong Hun An - 80/1, DK Price $7,600

Outside of Kyle Stanley, Group 11 has turned into one of the chalkier quadrants on the board. Tommy Fleetwood, Louis Oosthuizen and Byeong-Hun An are all projected to be over 12 percent owned, but there is potential for whoever can find their way out of the mess.

To me, Fleetwood feels like fool's gold. Francesco Molinari slightly enhanced his Ryder Cup performance, and we saw Fleetwood struggle in the singles portion to Tony Finau, losing 6 and 4. However, the general public will remember "Moliwood," and that will increase the Englishman's ownership percentage. Stanley's ball striking abilities and Oosthuizen's form make it a nearly impossible group to decide upon, but I think we see Hun An potentially overcome his struggles in match play to advance.

The 27-year-old sports a (1-6-2) record in singles, but of his six losses, three have come on the final hole to lose by one, and one was a withdrawal against Rafa Cabrera Bello in the 2016 version of this event. Hun An is playing some of the best golf of his career, and despite his hefty ownership projection, I like the South Korean to find his way out of the group.

#5 Haotong Li - 125/1, DK Price $6,800

If you are looking for a longshot that could make a deep run, look no further than Haotong Li. Li's pairing of Brooks Koepka, Alex Noren and Tom Lewis have formed the weakest group (according to my spreadsheet), and there is a massive opening for either Koepka or Li to easily advance into the Sweet 16.

Noren's form is abysmal, and Lewis is one of the bottom three golfers on my spreadsheet this week. In fact, Noren is currently ranked inside the bottom 10 himself and looks lost from where he was around this time last season. Koepka has been sputtering in his previous two events, and Li has drawn his opponents in the perfect order to find success. The Chinese sensation will face off against Noren first, Koepka second and Lewis third. I think it is ideal to face Noren when he is still ice-cold, Koepka in a potential lookahead spot and Lewis when he is in a position to advance.

#6 Luke List - 100/1, DK Price $6,800,

Getting paired With Rory McIlroy isn't typically a recipe for success, but the 34-year-old draws a remotely decent group if you ignore the hottest player in the world. There are a lot of ways that this could have gone much worse with List being the last player to qualify for the field, but Matthew Fitzpatrick is one of the weaker players from the "secondary" group, and Justin Harding is almost without a doubt the most vulnerable golfer from the "third" set.

List wasn't able to gain any traction at the tournament last season, going 0-3 in a group featuring Justin Thomas, Franceso Molinari and Patton Kizzire, but the American is a premier ball striker that possesses the distance to stay with the best players in the world. List draws McIlroy in his opening match, and there is a chance he could catch the fourth-ranked golfer sleeping.

#7 Gary Woodland - 66/1, DK Price $7,800

Gary Woodland has failed to get out of the group stage in two tries at Austin Country Club, but the American finished runner-up to Rory McIlroy in 2015 when the event was played at Harding Park.

The group won't be easy with Justin Rose, Eddie Pepperell and Emiliano Grillo, but the winner has a great chance to make a Final Four run. The Sweet 16 opponent could feature one of the weaker options in the field, and even if the defending champion Bubba Watson gets through, he is only grading out 20th on my spreadsheet. The Elite Eight pairing will not have anyone ranking inside the top-10 either, regardless of who gets through. Woodland's odds are too inflated given his potential path and is worth heavy consideration at 66/1.

#8 Sergio Garcia - 45/1, DK Price $8,500

Sergio Garcia was likely the big winner after the draw on Monday. It is hard to argue against him pulling the weakest "A" player in Patrick Reed, and he didn't fare much worse with eventual matchups against Shane Lowry and Andrew Putnam.

There is trouble lurking with Dustin Johnson in the Sweet 16 if he is able to get out of the group stage, but that isn't something we can put too much stock into. While Garcia did draw the more challenging left side of the bracket, the top four regions seem to be slightly easier than the bottom four quadrants. At 45/1, Garcia is worth a second look since he is the probable favorite to get out of the group and anything can happen after that.

#9 Thorbjorn Olesen - 175/1, DK Price $6,500

The second softest group belongs to Francesco Molinari's foursome. Satoshi Kodaira could be viewed as a win for every player in the region, and Thorbjorn Olesen is better than people realize. His propensity for high volatility is a perk in a contest like this, and there is potential for him to make a deep run if he escapes the relatively weak quadrant.

A Sweet 16 matchup against Casey's group even further opens up the door for a possible run, and Olesen's odds are too inflated given all the uncertainty surrounding the two sections.

#10 Si Woo Kim - 125/1, DK Price $6,500

The Pete Dye specialist may have drawn the wrong portion of the draw, but Si Woo Kim's combustible nature (both good and bad) is what we are looking for in an event like this.

The 56th-ranked player in the world enters the event ranked fifth in strokes gained around the green and fifth in putting average. If those two facets of his game can get hot over the weekend, there is no reason why the 23-year-old couldn't spring a few upsets and make a deep run.

MY TOP 30 RANKED GOLFERS FOR THE WEEK

Key Stats: SG Off The Tee (30%), Birdie or Better Percentage (30%), Strokes Gained Approach (20%) and Ball Striking (20%)

70% Stats/30% Form

Head-to-Head Play of the Week

No head-to-head wager this weekend

2019 Head-to-Head Record (10-4-2)

+7.27 Units Year-To-Date From H2H Bets

Tournament	Head-to-Head Bet	Bet	My Picks Finish	Opponent Finish	Result	Total
Safeway Open	Sangmoon Bae +130 Over Chris Kirk	1.00 Units to Win 1.30	MC (+2)	MC (E)	Loss	-1.00
CIMB Classic	Kevin Na -120 over Kevin Tway	1.50 Units to Win 1.25	T19 (-17)	T27 (-13)	Win	1.25
CJ Cup	Paul Casey +100 over Marc Leishman	1.25 Units to Win 1.25	T18 (-8)	T18 (-8)	Push	0
WGC-HSBC	Thomas Pieters +120 over Kevin Na	1.00 Units to Win 1.20	T18 (-1)	T54 (+10)	Win	1.20
Shriners	Austin Cook +100 over Russell Henley	1.00 Units to Win 1.00	MC (+1)	MC (-1)	Loss	-1.00
Mayakoba	Kevin Chappell +100 over Charley Hoffman	1.25 Units to Win 1.25	T41 (-9)	MC (+2)	Win	1.25
RSM Classic	Patrick Rodgers -105 over Bronson Burgoon	1.05 Units to Win 1.00	2nd (-19)	MC (+2)	Win	1.00
Sony Open	Jimmy Walker -115 over Kevin Na	1.15 Units to Win 1.00	T51 (-6)	Did Not Start	Push	0
Desert Classic	Anders Albertson -110 over Anirban Lahiri	1.10 Units to Win 1.00	T34 (-14)	MC (-8)	Win	1.00
Farmers Insurance	J.B. Holmes +130 over Branden Grace	0.70 Units to Win 0.91	MC (+4)	MC (+3)	Loss	-0.70
Farmers Insurance	Jordan Spieth -110 over Alex Noren	1.10 Units to Win 1.00	T35 (-7)	MC (E)	Win	1.00
Waste Management	Ryan Palmer +105 over Kevin Tway	1.00 Units to Win 1.05	T60 (E)	MC (E)	Win	1.05
Genesis Open	Hideki Matsuyama -110 over Jordan Spieth	1.10 Units to Win 1.00	T9 (-7)	T51 (+1)	Win	1.00
Honda Classic	Zach Johnson -115 over Kiradech Aphibarnrat	1.43 Units to Win 1.25	T59 (+3)	MC (+10)	Win	1.25
Arnold Palmer	Chesson Hadley -110 over Chris Kirk	0.82 Units to win 0.75	T17 (-5)	T15 (-6)	Loss	-0.82
Players Championship	Tiger Woods +105 over Rickie Fowler	0.75 Units to win 0.79	T30 (-6)	T47 (-3)	Win	0.79

 

2019 Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10

Player	Event	Odds	Finish Position
Matt Kuchar	Mayakoba Golf Classic	66/1	1
Chesson Hadley	CIMB Classic	110/1	T2
Ryan Palmer	CJ Cup	150/1	T3
Sam Ryder	Shriners Hospitals	80/1	3
Chez Reavie	Sony Open	80/1	T3
Justin Thomas	Waste Management	10/1	3
Tommy Fleetwood	Arnold Palmer	35/1	T3
Rafa Cabrera-Bello	Arnold Palmer	60/1	T3
Lucas Glover	Honda Classic	60/1	T4
Jason Day	CJ Cup	13/1	T5
Zach Johnson	RSM Classic	40/1	T7
Kevin Kisner	RSM Classic	40/1	T7
Webb Simpson	TOC	25	T8
Jason Day	Players Championship	40/1	T8
Hideki Matsuyama	Players Championship	40/1	T8
J.B. Holmes	Safeway Open	60/1	9
Gary Woodland	Farmers Insurance	28/1	T9
Hideki Matsuyama	Genesis Open	30/1	T9
Shubankar Sharma	CIMB Classic	150/1	T10

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