RADIO
Welcome back to the PGA DFS: Vegas Report. Brooks Koepka captured his first WGC title last weekend at the St. Jude Classic, eclipsing second place finisher Webb Simpson by three shots. Koepka was brilliant during the four days and concluded the event ranked first in strokes gained putting (9.346) and first in scrambling (90.91%). The combination of those two statistics would make any player difficult to beat, but when you add in the Americans firepower off the tee and mental fortitude, the field didn't stand much of a chance to avoid his reign of destruction.
Koepka has become an interesting case study when it comes to his mindset from week-to-week. Many in the golf community would have sworn that the 29-year-old only showed up in Memphis last weekend to collect a paycheck, but those sorts of claims always need to be researched further. I've never been shy when expressing my opinion on this topic, but I think it is worth discussing one more time before we drop this debate for good.
People inside this industry forget that Koepka plays one of the most condensed schedules on tour every season - which gives him about 15 chances outside of the majors to find the winners circle. Four of those events will come the week before a major, and a few additional contests will be sprinkled in as something that is moderately out of place. The reason why I feel the need to mention all of this is because Koepka has been forthcoming about his work ethic when he is not playing tournament golf, insisting that the only time he plays the sport is when you see him on television. If we are to take those claims at face value, it is not that he doesn't care about regular events, it is that he is rusty and out of form when he enters most of them. Last weekend presented us with the perfect opportunity to grab the best player in the world in a position where he would be teeing it up for the third time that month, and he rewarded us nicely with our fourth outright winner of the season. Gambling is all about finding angles that not many are discussing so never be afraid to dive a little deeper into your research and take a stance against the consensus. With the Wyndham Championship on tap, let's see if you can provide a back-to-back winner using that same mentality.
2019 WGC - FedEx St. Jude Invitational
For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and Fanduel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course.
To see who the RotoBaller staff is selecting in the weekly 'One and Done' contest, click here.
Sedgefield Country Club
7,127 Yards - Par 70 - Greens Bermuda
Our last stop before the FedExCup playoffs takes us to North Carolina for the Wyndham Championship, and while some of the big names are making the trip to Sedgefield, the event is shaping up to be a mad dash to try and lock in a position inside the top 125. All the golfers ranked between 103 and 137 are set to tee it up this weekend and fortunes will change with every good or bad shot.
Sedgefield Country Club was designed by Donald Ross in 1926 but was re-modeled and toughed in 2007 by Kris Spence. The venue can be considered a straightforward par 70, measuring in at 7,127 yards and will reward plodders who can find the fairway off the tee. The greens are typical of a Ross design, featuring small surfaces and undulation throughout the property.
Eight of the par-fours measure between 400-450 yards and the two par-fives at the facility yielded 70 eagles in 2018. Birdie or better percentage will play a factor since the event routinely plays around 20-under par or better and players who excel with wedges between the distances of 125-175 yards will be at an advantage over the field. I don't usually put much weight onto good drive percentage, but total driving is essential this weekend - especially when it comes to driving accuracy.
Wyndham Championship
#1 Paul Casey - 22/1
DK Price $9,800, FD Price $11,400
Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 18.7%
Before we discuss why Paul Casey is included as my pick to win in North Carolina, let's examine his projected ownership percentage on DraftKings. I find it very difficult to believe Casey will push 17%+ for the Wyndham Championship. Webb Simpson ($11,200), Brandt Snedeker ($10,000) and Patrick Reed ($9,700) are going to draw their fair share of occupancy, and it is not like Hideki Matsuyama ($10,900) and Collin Morikawa ($10,400) will go unowned. Some of these players will have to come in at a smaller percentage, and I am willing to bet Casey will be closer to 15% than 20%.
The Englishman is FAR from my cup of tea when it comes to outright betting. I consider him to be perennially mispriced in the outright market and consistently overvalued by bettors. However, of every player listed at 40/1 or better, Casey is the only one who is grading out as a profitable long-term wager this week. We obviously aren't talking about bank-breaking value, but I would have had the 42-year-old listed as the second betting favorite at 18.5/1. Webb Simpson would be my top choice at 14/1 if I were the one making the odds.
Casey hasn't played Sedgefield in the past three years but posted two top-18 finishes in 2014 and 2015 - which includes his third-place showing the last time he teed it up here. I don't necessarily trust the 19th-ranked player in the world on a week-to-week basis, but events like the Wyndham Championship have always been the places we have seen Casey play better at during his career. Value is value, and when he is one of the only players near the top of the board providing a price worth considering, it is hard to overlook him at a course that rewards total driving.
#2 Adam Hadwin - 50/1
DK Price $8,500 FD Price $10,300
Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 12.8%
Adam Hadwin has been a bit of an enigma over the past two years. His nearly 84% made cut percentage has been brilliant, but the upside to his finishes have been inconsistent. Through a ten tournament stretch from the Waste Management Open to the Memorial in 2019, the 31-year-old was only able to produce one top-28 result - even though he delivered a nearly 80% cut-rate through those events.
But all that appears to have changed over the past month. Hadwin has provided two top-six finishes in his previous four tournaments and quietly put together a share of 57th place at the Open Championship. While I get that his result at Royal Portrush is not necessarily anything to write home about, making the weekend during a major has not always been a given for the one-time PGA Tour winner. Before teeing it up in Ireland, Hadwin had only made 54% of his weekend in grand slam events.
A shorter track like Sedgefield should allow Hadwin to use his driving accuracy and short irons to find a plethora of birdie opportunities, and his two finishes of 33rd and 51st at the property probably haven't told the full story. Hadwin has shot under par in seven of his eight rounds and was on pace for a top-20 result in 2015 before firing a 73 on Sunday. Hadwin's form seems to be picking up, and his achievements at the Wyndham are being masked by one poor round. Somewhere in the low-to-mid 40s would have been a more accurate price, and I will gladly jump on board at a generous 50/1.
#3 Andrew Landry - 175/1
DK Price $6,800, FD Price $8,200
Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 7.0%
While Andrew Landry has missed two of his past three cuts on tour, I can't help but get his third-place showing at the John Deere Classic out of my mind. The American ended that week ranked 10th in driving accuracy and 14th in strokes gained approach, and it appears as if Sedgefield Country Club should be able to emphasize those same traits this weekend with Landry entering the event ranked seventh in good drive percentage and 12th in proximity between 125-175 yards on the season compared to the field.
Players who can find a ton of fairways and excel from that particular range mentioned above will create more scoring opportunities, and in a high-scoring affair like the Wyndham Championship, birdie looks are almost more important than any other statistic. Austin Cook and Landry share a similar style of play and bring in almost identical form, yet Cook is being priced at half the odds of Landry. I don't have any issues with backing Cook at 90/1, but I'd prefer to take a comparable player at nearly double the price instead.
#4 Josh Teater - 175/1
DK Price $6,900, FD Price $8,300
Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 1.2%
This week is do or die for Josh Teater when it comes to his status going forward on the PGA Tour. The 40-year-old enters the week ranked 165th in the FedExCup standings and will need a big finish if he wants to continue his season. I'm not necessarily a huge believer that the extra pressure will do the American well because every golfer thinks and performs differently when faced with adversity, but Teater will have a chance to perform well at a course that has suited his eye in the past.
When we attach a 95 percent weight onto 2019 statistics and five percent calculation to 2018, Teater grades out inside the top 25 in strokes gained approach, good drive percentage, GIR, proximity from 125-175 yards and scoring average before the cut. His most recent showing at Sedgefield resulted in a failed attempt in 2015, but the 310th-ranked player in the world was able to provide four top-38 finishes from 2010 to 2014 at the venue, which is going entirely ignored by most in the community. Priced at 175/1 in the outright market and $6,900 price tag on DraftKings, the Kentucky native is one of my favorite value plays on the board and is someone who could sneak up and surprise the majority at his one percent projected ownership.
#5 Johnson Wagner - 200/1
DK Price $6,600, FD Price $7,900
Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 4.6%
North Carolina resident Johnson Wagner has had a stellar five year run at the Wyndham Championship. The 39-year-old has made all five cuts, including a fifth-place showing in 2016.
Wagner's success at the course has been predicated on his ability to find fairways, and the 327th-ranked player in the world enters the week ranked fourth compared to the field in good drive percentage. Like Josh Teater, Wagner will need a significant result if he wants to crack into the top 125 of the FedExCup standings, but his history at the venue would make you believe it is possible. Wagner's $6,600 price tag on DraftKings makes him an intriguing contrarian option to consider, and his 200/1 outright price is roughly 50 points higher than it should be this weekend.
My Top 30 Ranked Golfers For The Week
Key Stats: Good Drive Percentage 20%, Proximity 125-175 20%, Birdie or Better Percentage 17.5%, Strokes Gained Approach 17.5%, Par-Four Average 12.5% and Par-Five Average 12.5%.
55% Stats/30% Form/15% Course History
Head-to-Head Play of the Week
No head-to-head play this week. We will resume next weekend at the Northern Trust.
2019 Head-to-Head Record (16-9-2)
+8.33 Units Year-To-Date From H2H Bets
|
Tournament |
Head-to-Head Bet |
Bet |
My Picks Finish |
Opponent Finish |
Result |
Total |
|
Safeway Open |
Sangmoon Bae +130 Over Chris Kirk |
1.00 Units to Win 1.30 |
MC (+2) |
MC (E) |
Loss |
-1.00 |
|
CIMB Classic |
Kevin Na -120 over Kevin Tway |
1.50 Units to Win 1.25 |
T19 (-17) |
T27 (-13) |
Win |
1.25 |
|
CJ Cup |
Paul Casey +100 over Marc Leishman |
1.25 Units to Win 1.25 |
T18 (-8) |
T18 (-8) |
Push |
0 |
|
WGC-HSBC |
Thomas Pieters +120 over Kevin Na |
1.00 Units to Win 1.20 |
T18 (-1) |
T54 (+10) |
Win |
1.20 |
|
Shriners |
Austin Cook +100 over Russell Henley |
1.00 Units to Win 1.00 |
MC (+1) |
MC (-1) |
Loss |
-1.00 |
|
Mayakoba |
Kevin Chappell +100 over Charley Hoffman |
1.25 Units to Win 1.25 |
T41 (-9) |
MC (+2) |
Win |
1.25 |
|
RSM Classic |
Patrick Rodgers -105 over Bronson Burgoon |
1.05 Units to Win 1.00 |
2nd (-19) |
MC (+2) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Sony Open |
Jimmy Walker -115 over Kevin Na |
1.15 Units to Win 1.00 |
T51 (-6) |
Did Not Start |
Push |
0 |
|
Desert Classic |
Anders Albertson -110 over Anirban Lahiri |
1.10 Units to Win 1.00 |
T34 (-14) |
MC (-8) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Farmers Insurance |
J.B. Holmes +130 over Branden Grace |
0.70 Units to Win 0.91 |
MC (+4) |
MC (+3) |
Loss |
-0.70 |
|
Farmers Insurance |
Jordan Spieth -110 over Alex Noren |
1.10 Units to Win 1.00 |
T35 (-7) |
MC (E) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Waste Management |
Ryan Palmer +105 over Kevin Tway |
1.00 Units to Win 1.05 |
T60 (E) |
MC (E) |
Win |
1.05 |
|
Genesis Open |
Hideki Matsuyama -110 over Jordan Spieth |
1.10 Units to Win 1.00 |
T9 (-7) |
T51 (+1) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Honda Classic |
Zach Johnson -115 over Kiradech Aphibarnrat |
1.43 Units to Win 1.25 |
T59 (+3) |
MC (+10) |
Win |
1.25 |
|
Arnold Palmer |
Chesson Hadley -110 over Chris Kirk |
0.82 Units to win 0.75 |
T17 (-5) |
T15 (-6) |
Loss |
-0.82 |
|
Players Championship |
Tiger Woods +105 over Rickie Fowler |
0.75 Units to win 0.79 |
T30 (-6) |
T47 (-3) |
Win |
0.79 |
|
Valero Texas Open |
Trey Mullinax -110 over Justin Harding |
1.10 Units to Win 1.00 |
MDF (+1) |
MC (+4) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Masters |
Bubba Watson -115 over Louis Oosthuizen |
1.15 Units to Win 1.00 |
T12 (-8) |
T29 (-4) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Wells Fargo Championship |
Joel Damen +120 over Chez Reavie |
0.75 Units to win 0.90 |
2nd (-12) |
T18 (-5) |
Win |
0.90 |
|
Byron Nelson |
Trey Mullinax -105 over Brian Stuard |
1.05 Units to Win 1.00 |
MC (+5) |
T59 (-7) |
Loss |
-1.05 |
|
PGA Championship |
Dylan Frittelli -105 over Cameron Champ |
1.05 Units to Win 1.00 |
MC (+8) |
T54 (+9) |
Loss |
-1.05 |
|
Memorial Tournament |
Jason Kokrak -110 over Kyle Stanley |
1.10 Units to Win 1.00 |
T62 (+3) |
MC (+2) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Canadian Open |
Ollie Schniederjans -110 over Nick Taylor |
1.10 Units to Win 1.00 |
MC (+1) |
-6 (T27) |
Loss |
-1.10 |
|
U.S. Open |
Tiger Woods +160 over Rory McIlroy |
1.00 Units to Win 1.60 |
T21 (-2) |
T9 (-5) |
Loss |
-1.00 |
|
3M Open |
Lucas Glover +100 over Charley Hoffman |
1.25 Units to Win 1.25 |
T7 (-16) |
MC (E) |
Win |
1.25 |
|
John Deere Classic |
Talor Gooch +100 over Beau Hossler |
1.25 Units to Win 1.25 |
MDF (-2) |
T26 (-12) |
Loss |
-1.25 |
|
WGC-St. Jude |
Eddie Pepperell +170 over Keegan Bradley |
.80 Units to Win 1.36 |
T51 (+4) |
T61 (+12) |
Win |
1.36 |
2019 Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10
|
Player |
Event |
Odds |
Finish Position |
|
Matt Kuchar |
Mayakoba Golf Classic |
66 |
1 |
|
Corey Conners |
Valero Texas Open |
200 |
1 |
|
Rory McIlroy |
Canadian Open |
10 |
1 |
|
Brooks Koepka |
WGC- St. Jude |
12 |
1 |
|
Chesson Hadley |
CIMB Classic |
110 |
T2 |
|
Dustin Johnson |
Masters |
12 |
T2 |
|
Adam Scott |
Memorial |
33 |
2 |
|
Ryan Palmer |
CJ Cup |
150 |
T3 |
|
Sam Ryder |
Shriners Hospitals |
80 |
3 |
|
Chez Reavie |
Sony Open |
80 |
T3 |
|
Justin Thomas |
Waste Management |
10 |
3 |
|
Tommy Fleetwood |
Arnold Palmer |
35 |
T3 |
|
Rafa Cabrera-Bello |
Arnold Palmer |
60 |
T3 |
|
Scott Piercy |
RBC Heritage |
150 |
T3 |
|
Xander Schaufele |
U.S. Open |
28 |
T3 |
|
Tony Finau |
Open Championship |
80 |
3 |
|
Marc Leishman |
WGC- St. Jude |
66 |
3 |
|
Lucas Glover |
Honda Classic |
60 |
T4 |
|
Brooks Koepka |
Byron Nelson |
7 |
T4 |
|
Jason Day |
CJ Cup |
13 |
T5 |
|
Sergio Garcia |
WGC-Match Play |
45 |
T5 |
|
Jason Day |
Masters |
40 |
T5 |
|
Marc Leishman |
Memorial |
66 |
5 |
|
Kevin Tway |
Travelers |
150 |
T5 |
|
Adam Hadwin |
Canadian Open |
70 |
6 |
|
Rickie Fowler |
Open Championship |
33 |
T6 |
|
Zach Johnson |
RSM Classic |
40 |
T7 |
|
Kevin Kisner |
RSM Classic |
40 |
T7 |
|
Troy Merritt |
3M Open |
175 |
T7 |
|
Lucas Glover |
3M Open |
90 |
T7 |
|
Webb Simpson |
TOC |
25 |
8 |
|
Jason Day |
Players Championship |
40 |
T8 |
|
Hideki Matsuyama |
Players Championship |
40 |
T8 |
|
Jason Day |
Travelers |
20 |
T8 |
|
J.B. Holmes |
Safeway Open |
60 |
9 |
|
Gary Woodland |
Farmers Insurance |
28 |
T9 |
|
Hideki Matsuyama |
Genesis Open |
30 |
T9 |
|
Shubankar Sharma |
CIMB Classic |
150 |
T10 |
|
Troy Merritt |
RBC Heritage |
250 |
T10 |
