RADIO
Welcome to the Divisional Round of the 2020-2021 NFL Season! Each week, we'll be bringing you our famous NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with expert research and picks for cash games and GPPs. Here are a few notes about the sheet. For the remainder of the playoffs, I will be scrapping the sheet and breaking down each of the games with my favorite cash and GPP plays as well as some game theory as to how I am going to approach the slate.
Both sites are running two-game slates for both days as well as a full four-game slate with DraftKings making it their feature slate for the weekend. I thought it would be most helpful to break my analysis into two pieces and tackle the Saturday and Sunday slates independently. If you are playing the four-game slate then both articles together can serve as a guideline as to how to go about building your lineups. I will be using DVOA ranks from Football Outsiders for the offensive and defensive stats.
Los Angelas Rams (+6.5) @ Green Bay Packers (45.5 O/U)
Los Angelas Offense: 10th Overall, 20th in Passing, 4th in Rushing
Green Bay Defense: 17th Overall, 15th vs. Pass, 18th vs. Run
This game is pretty much strength vs. strength and one of the most compelling matchups of the entire weekend in my opinion. And the way we approach it is likely to make or break our Saturday only or 4-game slate lineups.
The Rams offense really struggled down the stretch and they lost to the Jets and Seahawks and managed only 18 points against Arizona in their final regular-season games. The offense only scored two TDs in last week's win against Seattle and settled for three field goals, too. They're back to Jared Goff at QB after John Wolford has been ruled out, which probably makes Rams fans a good bit nervous as Goff has had an underwhelming season, to say the least.
However, the running game has been strong and they have a nice matchup against a Green Bay defense that has struggled to stop the run. Cam Akers is likely going to get as many carries as he can handle as the Rams try to control the clock and the line of scrimmage. Look for Goff to target Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods in the controlled passing game on screens and short patterns and perhaps take a few shots in play-action when they get a chance.
I don't really want to full-stack this Rams offense, but the prices on Akers, Kupp, and Woods are all very fair and I think they will move the ball and score. Will they pull off the upset? If they do, it's likely on the backs of a really strong defensive performance and a big day from their running game.
Core Plays: Cam Akers
Other Plays: Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods
Green Bay Offense: 1st Overall, 1st in Passing, 5th in Rushing
Los Angelas Defense: 4th Overall, 4th vs. Pass, 3rd vs. Run
Talk about strength on strength! The Packers have the best offense in the league statistically (though the Chiefs may have something to say about that) and have been nearly unstoppable all year. But this Rams Defense is seriously good and they are going to present Aaron Rodgers and the Pack with their biggest challenge thus far.
Obviously, a Rodgers-Adams-Jones stack should be in play here as the Packers have really condensed production by their star players. However, it is a really expensive combo and frankly, I think the Rams are going to shut down at least one of Jones or Adams. With this game having a lower total of the two, I would rather play some one-offs from Green Bay and stack some of the cheaper offenses. I like Adams over Jones based on his target volume and red-zone production, but Jones obviously has a ton of upside of his own. Robert Tonyan has been a red-zone monster for Green Bay all year, too, and is probably the second-best choice at TE behind Mark Andrews.
Both Allen Lazard and Marques Valdez-Scantling are both dart throws in my opinion, but are certainly GPP options, especially if we think the Packers end up throwing the ball a lot and Adams is held in check by Jalen Ramsey.
Core Plays: Davante Adams
Other Plays: Aaron Rodgers, Aaron Jones, Robert Tonyan
Baltimore Ravens (+3) @Buffalo Bills (49.5 O/U)
Baltimore Offense: 11th Overall, 17th in Passing, 3rd in Rushing
Buffalo Defense: 12th Overall, 12th vs. Pass, 17th vs. Run
As a Steelers' fan, I hate the Ravens but as an NFL analyst, I really love their chances of winning this weekend and plan to have multiple Ravens in all my Saturday and full-weekend lineups. This Buffalo defense is a middling unit with a glaring weakness against the run and Baltimore comes in with one of the best rushing attacks in the league.
Lamar Jackson got the monkey off his back last week with his first playoff win and is about as dynamic of an athlete as the NFL has seen since Mike Vick. I expect the Ravens to get Jackson and J.K. Dobbins going in the run game early and then look to hit Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown in the play-action passing game. Gus Edwards still steals some touches from Dobbins, but Dobbins has been so productive on a per-touch basis and continues to find a way to get in the end zone.
Baltimore stacks are going to be easy to build with Dobbins, Andrews, and Brown all being fairly priced and we've seen them account for 80% of the Ravens' offense in multiple games this season. If we see some snow and cold weather in this game, that makes me like the Ravens even more as that should help their run game and hurt the Bills' passing game. The Ravens win ugly, and that's how I think this one plays out.
Core Plays: Lamar Jackson, J.K. Dobbins
Other Plays: Mark Andrews, Hollywood Brown
Buffalo Offense: 5th Overall, 3rd in Passing, 22nd in Rushing
Baltimore Defense: 9th Overall, 10th vs. Pass, 12th vs. Run
It would be very wrong to write off the Bills in this spot. They have proven all season long that they can beat good teams and Josh Allen continues to make big plays for them on offense. But there are definitely some reasons to worry as they meet a Ravens team that is playing well and with a lot of confidence.
Zack Moss is out this week, so Devin Singletary should get most of the touches in the running game. But he's been pretty mediocre running the ball this year which is how he lost his starting job to Moss in the first place. He does have some nice passing game chops, though, which makes him a potentially better option on DraftKings.
I expect the Bills to do what they've done all season, and that's let Allen throw the ball and make plays for them. This Ravens secondary has some solid cover corners but lacks a consistent pass rush. Allen is the most expensive QB on the slate but is dual-threat like Jackson who can score us points with his legs. If making multiple lineups, I'd get some exposure to both these QBs.
Diggs is the primary target for Allen, but he is expensive and is likely going to draw a legit corner in Jimmy Smith. I think I'd rather pay for Davante Adams in the other game and target some of the secondary receivers for the Bills. Cole Beasley will line up in the slot, where the Ravens are more beatable and John Brown is a guy who still has some appeal despite his dud last week. The Bills passing game is very stackable and I want my big stacks to come from this game as I think it has a better chance of going over its total (even in the cold weather and snow).
Core Plays: Cole Beasley/John Brown
Other Plays: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Devin Singletary
Premium DFS Expert Lineups - Divisional Round Saturday
FanDuel Lineup
DraftKings Lineup
Please note that these are sample lineups we provide as a tool for you to use. They are designed to give you building-block options as you go about choosing your own lineups, but in no way can we guarantee success. Be sure to examine the latest injury updates, Las Vegas projected game totals, and late scratches before finalizing your lineups to ensure the players you are choosing are active on game day.
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!
