RADIO
Welcome to the Divisional Round of the 2020-2021 NFL Season! Each week, we'll be bringing you our famous NFL DFS Cheat Sheet with expert research and picks for cash games and GPPs. Here are a few notes about the sheet. For the remainder of the playoffs, I will be scrapping the sheet and breaking down each of the games with my favorite cash and GPP plays as well as some game theory as to how I am going to approach the slate.
Both sites are running two-game slates for both days as well as a full four-game slate with DraftKings making it their feature slate for the weekend. I thought it would be most helpful to break my analysis into two pieces and tackle the Saturday and Sunday slates independently. If you are playing the four-game slate then both articles together can serve as a guideline as to how to go about building your lineups. I will be using DVOA ranks from Football Outsiders for the offensive and defensive stats.
Cleveland Browns (+10) @ Kansas City Chiefs (57.5 O/U)
Cleveland Offense: 9th Overall, 10th Passing, 7th Rushing
Kansas City Defense: 22nd Overall, 16th vs. Pass, 32nd vs. Run
The Browns are riding high after their upset of Pittsburgh last week and their offense looked pretty solid in putting up a 40-spot on one of the better defenses in the league. The Steelers fan in me would like to point out that they had a defensive touchdown and mainly short fields to work with due to all the Pittsburgh turnovers, but the fact remains that the offense made plays and took advantage of the opportunities they were given.
This KC defense is not good. It's their Achilles heel and the Vegas total on this game suggests that the Browns are going to score some points even if they are unable to pull off another massive upset. Nick Chubb has a great matchup here and it was good to see him used in the passing game last week, something the Browns probably didn't do enough in the regular season. Kareem Hunt had two TDs and is also a positive in the passing game. The Browns will run the ball on the Chiefs, it's really just a matter of game script and if they are able to stay in the game and keep to their gameplan then both backs are going to get fed.
I like the idea of targeting Hunt for his passing game chops and his price. If we are playing the game script that Cleveland falls behind early and has to play catch up, then rolling with Baker Mayfield and some of his weapons like Jarvis Landry and Austin Hooper makes a ton of sense. The Browns don't have to win to put up useable numbers, we saw that with Steelers stacks winning GPPs last week. Hooper really stands out to me at his price point with the Chiefs surrendering the seventh-most points to TEs this season.
Core Plays: Kareem Hunt
Other Plays: Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb, Austin Hooper, Jarvis Landry
Kansas City Offense: 2nd Overall, 2nd Passing, 13th Rushing
Cleveland Defense: 25th Overall, 25th vs. Pass, 19th vs. Run
This is the obvious chalk on this slate, but it's not something you want to get away from. The KC offense is good...like really good. Like they're probably one of the best offenses the NFL has ever seen kind of good. And the Browns Defense is...well, pretty bad. The Steelers rolled up 500+ yards of offense last week, and the Browns can tell themselves everything from "we were playing prevent defense" to "we were missing Denzel Ward" but this unit has been bad all season.
It's a perfect storm for Patrick Mahomes and the KC passing game here. They want to throw the ball and the Browns are not going to be able to stop them. Squeezing Mahomes in with both Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce is going to be incredibly tough, but it's probably worth trying. Another strategy is to pay down for a cheaper QB (like Mayfield) and then smash in Hill/Kelce or stack Mahomes with one of the big two receivers and a cheap GPP target like Demarcus Robinson or Mecole Hardman.
With Clyde Edwards-Helaire back this week, I'm pretty much off him and Leveon Bell in the running game. I'm just not interested in figuring out that timeshare and I think you're better off attacking the passing game options.
Core Plays: Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill
Other Plays: Patrick Mahomes, DeMarcus Robinson, Mecole Hardman
Tampa Bay Bucs (+3) @ New Orleans Saints (51.5 O/U)
Tampa Bay Offense: 3rd Overall, 5th Passing, 10th Rushing
New Orleans Defense: 2nd Overall, 3rd vs. Pass, 2nd vs. Run
Man, this is a tough game to predict and another awesome matchup that could go either way (like the Bills-Ravens game on Saturday). The Saints handled the Bucs both times this season and I am seeing a lot "but it's hard to beat a team three times in a year" comments flying around on TV and social media. While that is true, I think I still like the Saints at home in this game. That certainly doesn't mean we can't target the Bucs for DFS, though.
The Saints are really good against the run and the pass, but we are most likely going to see the Bucs forced into throwing the ball more than anything. They brought Tom Brady into town for this very scenario and they're going to ask him to go out and win them a big game by throwing to all the weapons they've surrounded him with on offense.
Figuring out which of Brady's receivers on a weekly basis has been incredibly tough, but there's one guy who stands out for me and it's AB. Brown has been able to get in the end zone now in four straight games and I think he ends up with the best individual matchup against the slot corners from the Saints. He's a guy with loads of playoff experience and Brady is going to look his way when he gets pressured. Mike Evans is always a red-zone threat and Godwin is such a stud - both of them have some merit, too, but I'll take the discount on Brown here as other high-priced players from the other game are going to take priority. Gronk interests me a bit, too, as he runs really quality routes and is such an awesome red zone target.
Core Plays: Antonio Brown
Other Plays: Rob Gronkowski, Chris Godwin
New Orleans Offense: 7th Overall, 12th Passing, 1st Rushing
Tampa Bay Defense: 5th Overall, 5th vs. Pass, 1st vs. Run
Here's the offense we can target with some really reliable outcomes. The Saints are finally healthy on offense and have their starting QB, best running back, and receiver all in the lineup. Brees, Kamara, and Thomas have been a dynamic combo now for several seasons and even though the Tampa defense statistically is really good, they've shown they can be beaten - especially in the passing game. Kamara is matchup-proof due to his ability to catch passes and Sean Payton is a smart coach who won't force the run if Tampa is shutting them down.
Thomas didn't miss last week after being in and out of the lineup all season. When healthy, he's one of the best receivers in the league and this scheme is going to force-feed him targets and let him make plays after the catch. Brees is not my first choice at QB, but he's cheap and paying down to him is going to allow us to load up on his weapons and smash in a few plays from KC/CLE. Jared Cook is another guy you could look to here to be different, but his floor is pretty low and he's only going to be optimal if he catches a touchdown. I think the Saints win and I'll be making every effort to get Kamara/Thomas into my cash game builds.
Core Plays: Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas
Other Plays: Drew Brees, Jared Cook
Premium DFS Expert Lineups - Wild Card Sunday
FanDuel Lineup
DraftKings Lineup
Please note that these are sample lineups we provide as a tool for you to use. They are designed to give you building-block options as you go about choosing your own lineups, but in no way can we guarantee success. Be sure to examine the latest injury updates, Las Vegas projected game totals, and late scratches before finalizing your lineups to ensure the players you are choosing are active on game day.
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