RADIO
Welcome to Wild Card Weekend, RotoBallers! For the playoffs, I won't be posting my usual spreadsheet, but instead, I will be breaking down each of the games with my favorite plays, pivots, and general strategy on how I am going to approach players in that game on each slate.
We have six games this weekend and while you can play the full 6-game slate, both sites have also chopped them up into smaller slates. I will be breaking down the two Saturday games here in this article and will follow with another article that addresses the three-game slate on Sunday. Monday's game is only on the full weekend slate and will also feature some big showdown contests as well.
DVOA Matchups for All Wild Card Games (click to enlarge)
Game by Game Breakdowns - Wild Card Saturday
4:30 PM - Las Vegas Raiders (+6.5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (48.5 total)
Previous Meetings: 11/21 - Bengals won 32-13
What an awesome weekend of football! We kick things off with the first Saturday game and a matchup between the AFC North champs hosting the Raiders, who secured the final spot in the AFC with a thrilling overtime win over the Chargers last weekend.
The Bengals handled this Raiders squad in their first matchup and are definitely the better team, but that doesn't mean the Raiders don't have a chance here or that we can't still target them in DFS. The Bengals were impressive down the stretch, beating up on their division mates and getting a signature win against the Chiefs in Week 17. They rested some guys last week and lost to the Browns, but I wouldn't put too much stock into that game.
Meanwhile, the Raiders are a "feel-good" story in the league as they had their share of adversity this season with the firing of Jon Gruden, the whole mess with Henry Ruggs III, and playing without their best offensive weapon Darren Waller for a large chunk of time.
For DFS, I will be starting with Joe Mixon on the Cincy side and Waller on the Oakland side. Mixon had a huge performance against these Raiders back in that first game, rushing for 120+ yards on 30 carries and two scores. While the Raiders have improved against the run lately, Mixon is still going to be fed touches in this game whether it's on running plays or in the passing game. He's going to get those quality touches, including goal-line carries and he's simply one of the safest plays on the slate even if he is a tad pricy on FanDuel.
Waller was targeted nine times last week but caught only two balls. He's a freakish athlete and a major mismatch for the Bengals. I would expect Vegas to try to establish him early and often. Waller can run a large variety of routes, too, so he's going to be hard to scheme against. The Bengals' pass defense has been their weakest link, so most of my focus for this game is going to be on the Oakland passing game with Waller being the top priority. It certainly doesn't hurt that Cincy has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to the tight end position either.
Both QBs are certainly in play here, but I would lean Burrow over Carr as I simply trust his production more and I think Burrow has more talent around him in that offense. He's broken a few slates this year and it wouldn't surprise me if he had another big game here. I put him right behind Josh Allen as far as upside on this slate at the QB position.
The Bengals receivers are the hardest group to figure out. Certainly, JaMarr Chase is a guy we have to consider based on the incredible year he had and the massive ceiling he put on display at times this season. As long as Tee Higgins is fully healthy, he's a solid pivot off Chase and he had a few really good games of his own in the second half of the season. My favorite of the bunch, though, just might be Tyler Boyd, who scored a touchdown in his final three games of the season while seeing five or more targets in each. He operates out of the slot quite a bit and is a sneaky good play here against this Raiders defense.
The other Oakland guys I would consider are Hunter Renfrow and Zay Jones. I just can't see myself playing much Josh Jacobs as I think the Bengals will shut down the running game and force Vegas to throw. I like Jones more than Renfrow on a point-per-dollar basis, but we can't ignore Renfrow's production from this season (even if a lot of it occurred while Waller was out). He scored two touchdowns last week and is clearly someone the coaches (and his QB) trust right now. Jones has seen a steady stream of targets lately, too, and is super cheap on both sites. I think he makes for a fine GPP play.
CORE PLAYS: Joe Mixon, Darren Waller
OTHER PLAYS: Joe Burrow, JaMarr Chase, Tyler Boyd, Zay Jones, Bengals D/ST
8:15 PM - New England Patriots (+4) @ Buffalo Bills (44 total)
Previous Meetings: 12/6 - Patriots won 14-10, 12/26 - Bills won 33-21
These teams are pretty familiar with each other by this point and are meeting for the third time this year. The Pats were able to beat the Bills in a bizarre bad weather game where they only threw the ball three times, but the Bills pounded them a few weeks later. So which result is more likely to be replicated?
You have to go with the Bills here, they're simply the more well-rounded and talented team. The Pats have done some great things considering they started a rookie QB all season and dealt with a slew of injuries to their defense. But I'm backing the Bills here and I think Josh Allen is the top play on the slate given his running and throwing ability. He's worth paying up for when you consider he's the only QB who has the ability to run and throw for 2+ touchdowns with regularity.
Stacking Allen with his top pass-catcher Diggs also makes sense and I think it's the right move. After chatting with my buddy Eric Samulski on our weekly podcast, I feel pretty confident that the Bills will make every effort to feed Diggs and establish him early in this game. Josh Allen also looks his way in the red zone quite a bit, so I wouldn't be surprised at all if he catches a TD (or two). After Diggs, the pass-catching options get a bit dicey as Gabriel Davis, Cole Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders, and tight end Dawson Knox have all played well at different points this season but none of them have had big games when they are all healthy at the same time.
Davis is the cheapest of the receivers and my favorite secondary option. He had double-digit targets again last week but only caught three of them. He's become a bigger and bigger part of this offense as the season goes along and he clearly has more raw talent than the smaller veterans Beasley and Sanders at this stage of their careers. Knox is a good player, but also seems to eat last when the Bills have everyone in the lineup and can't really be trusted.
On the Patriots side of things, we should expect them to come out and try to run the ball down the Bills' throats as they did in both games this year. Damien Harris had 111 yards and a score in the first meeting and then 103 yards and three scores in the second meeting. He's the clear lead back when healthy and a pretty easy play on this slate at his salary. You can always play Stevenson in larger field GPPs in case Harris gets hurt or Stevenson breaks a big run, but we should expect Harris to get the majority of the work in that semi-timeshare.
The Patriots' pass-catchers are not guys we really love here against a solid Bills pass defense, but if they are going to win or stay competitive in this game they are simply going to have to throw the ball. My favorite of the bunch is Jakobi Meyers as he operates out of the slot and therefore he will likely be able to avoid the Bills' best cover corners. He finally got a TD catch late in the season and the big knock on him has always been the lack of downfield targets and touchdowns, but at his price I'd be fine with 6-8 catches for 50+ yards, especially on DraftKings with full PPR scoring.
CORE PLAYS: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Damien Harris
OTHER PLAYS: Jakobi Meyers, Gabriel Davis, Hunter Henry, Bills D/ST
Premium DFS Expert Lineups - Wild Card Saturday
FanDuel Lineup
DraftKings Lineup
Please note that these are sample lineups we provide as a tool for you to use. They are designed to give you building-block options as you go about choosing your own lineups, but in no way can we guarantee success. Be sure to examine the latest injury updates, Las Vegas projected game totals, and late scratches before finalizing your lineups to ensure the players you are choosing are active on game day.
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