Early 2021 Breakouts: Quarterback

While it is early yet - no training camp, no OTAs, no pre-draft trades, is it really ever too early for fantasy predictions?

Potential moves involving superstars Deshaun Watson or Aaron Rodgers could definitely shake things up. But for now, don't count the following gentlemen out as quarterbacks who could carry your fantasy team.

Change is ever constant, but for now, here are five QB candidates to watch for a breakout fantasy season.

Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons

Can Matt Ryan be considered a "breakout"?  Last season, he finished QB12 with 293.44 fantasy points, 4581 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions.  He ran for 92 yards with two rushing touchdowns.

Ryan attempted 626 passes last season, averaging 41.8 pass plays per game.  Ninety of the 626 pass attempts were in the red zone with a 53.3% completion rate.

Now the Falcons have added Kyle Pitts and retained Julio Jones. And while the offense is consistently in the top ten in the percentage of passing plays, ninth in 2020 (62.06%), first in 2019 (66.97%) and third in 2018 (65.25%) the defense has not been as great.  They were 28th in giving up yards per game last season (398.4), 20th in 2019 (355.8) and 28th in 2018 (384.5).

While this does not bode so well for the Falcons in real time, for fantasy purposes an offense that plays from behind with the weapons the Falcons will put on the field, just screams fantasy points.

The Falcons' strength of schedule is ranked 30^th.

Falcons Depth Chart

LWR: Julio Jones, Christian Blake
RWR: Calvin Ridley, Olamide Zaccheaus
SWR: Russell Gage, Greg Doitch
TE: Hayden Hurst, Kyle Pitts

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

Stafford finished 2020 as QB16 in fantasy points in Detroit.  He is now in Los Angeles under the offensive command of Sean McVay.  It doesn't hurt that Fantasypros.com has the Rams with the seventh easiest strength of schedule for quarterbacks.

Stafford 2020 stats: 528 passing attempts, averaged 39 pass plays per game (the Rams with Jared Goff averaged 38 last season), 71 red zone attempts with a 54.9% completion rate.

Rams Depth Chart

LWR Cooper Kupp, DeSean Jackson
RWR Van Jefferson, Nsimba Webster
SWR Robert Woods, Tutu Atwell
TE: Tyler Higbee, Johnny Mundt

Sam Darnold, Carolina Panthers

Darnold gets an upgrade just by exfoliating himself from Adam Gase and going to Joe Brady.  It also helps that he is removed from playing behind the league's worst offensive line in pressure allowed.  The Jets offensive line allowed pressure on 2.5 seconds or less on 28% of dropbacks, the worst in the NFL and contributing to their 29^th overall ranking.

Although the Panthers' offensive line was erratic in their performance from the first half and second half last season, they still finished 11 spots higher than the Jets offensive line for overall rankings.

Being reunited with the wide receiver, who has caught his most touchdown passes (11), Robby Anderson is a bonus.  As is the upgrade he will have across the field.

Panthers Depth Chart

LWR: DJ Moore, Terrance Marshall Jr.
RWR: Robby Anderson, David Moore
TE: Dan Arnold, Ian Thomas, Tommy Treble

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

Not only do the Eagles have the easiest strength of schedule per cbssports.com, but Hurts has the 14^th easiest strength of schedule for quarterbacks.

Hurts started four games last season.  In those four games, Hurts had 63 rushing attempts for 357 yards and three touchdowns.  He also attempted 148 passes for 1061 yards and six passing touchdowns.

While his receiving options have been slightly upgraded, there is the hope that Jalen Reagor makes the jump from his rookie season.  Reagor was targeted 54 times for 31 receptions and 396 yards.  He finished the season with one receiving touchdown.

Travis Fulgham started hot and finished cold.  In his first five games, he had a touchdown in four out of the five.  He also had over 70 yards in four of the five, including a 152 yard game against the Pittsburgh Steelers.  After those five games, Fulgham did not have a touchdown or eclipse 30 receiving yards for the rest of the season.

Was it the coach or the player?  New head coach Nick Sirianni and offensive coordinator Shane Steichen should help the situation?

Also, when you have a quarterback who is also gaining touchdowns and yards with his legs, it is good fantasy business.

Eagles Depth Chart

LWR: Travis Fulgham, Quez Watkins
RWR: Jalen Reagor, John Hightower
SWR: DeVonta Smith, Greg Ward Jr.
TE: Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

The last time we saw Tagovailoa on the field, he was attempting 58 passes, completing 35, while tossing in three interceptions and one touchdown. It wasn't pretty.

For the 2020 season, Tagovailoa averaged 6.3 yards per attempt and had no attempt over 40 yards.

Now, no Ryan Fitzpatrick breathing down his neck and the scheduling gods have rewarded Tagovailoa and the Dolphins with the sixth-easiest strength of schedule for the 2021 season.

With the addition of Will Fuller in free agency and Jaylen Waddle in the first round of the NFL Draft, the Dolphins have presumptively given Tagovailoa the tools he needs to break out this season.

Dolphins Depth Chart

LWR: DeVante Parker, Lynn Bowden Jr.
RWR: Will Fuller, Preston Williams
SWR: Jaylen Waddle, Isaiah Ford
TE: Mike Gesicki, Durham Smythe, Adam Shaheen, Hunter Long

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