Best-Ball Pre-Draft Values - Running Back

The highly-anticipated NFL Draft is rapidly approaching, and we will witness an alteration of the fantasy landscape as draft selections are announced. But even though this annual event will soon transform the value of numerous players, many of you are already involved in the best-ball draft process now.

Your passion for this popular format has not wavered, as it allows you to complete all forms of roster management at the conclusion of each draft. That’s why the team at RotoBaller continues to provide the resources that you need to capture your best-ball leagues. This includes our breakdowns of players that supply favorable value at their current ADPs in FFPC leagues which are designed to help you maximize every draft selection.

This article will direct the spotlight on the critical running back position, which has commandeered the attention of fantasy managers early in the draft process. Nine backs are currently being selected in Round 1, while 26 runners have ADPs that are located inside the top 60. For those who may have missed it, the analysis of wide receivers with enticing pre-draft value can also be found here. All recommendations are made with the premise that each player’s value could rise or decline following the results of the aforementioned NFL Draft.

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Best Pre-Draft Value - Rounds 2-5

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals (ADP22/RB14)

If you were among the fantasy GMs who contributed to Mixon’s ADP (10) during the 2020 draft process, then you endured the lingering disappointment that accompanied his extended absence from Weeks 7-17. However, your investment actually delivered a reasonable return from Weeks 1-6, before Mixon’s troublesome foot issue abruptly concluded his season.

Mixon was second only to Derrick Henry in rushing attempts during that sequence (119/19.8 per game). That was the most extensive usage of his career while his attempts per game average rose for a fourth consecutive season (12.7/16.9/17.3). Mixon capitalized on his opportunities by vaulting to RB9 in scoring during that sequence. He was also seventh in rushing yardage (428/71.3 per game) and accumulated three touchdowns during those matchups.

Mixon was also 10th among backs in targets (26/4.3 per game) and eighth in receptions (21/3.5 per game) entering Week 7.

Weeks 1-6	Attempts	Yards	Attempt %	Targets/Gm
Derrick Henry	123	588	75.5	3
Joe Mixon	119	428	72.6	4.3
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	107	505	60.1	5.2
Josh Jacobs	106	377	72.6	4
Kenyan Drake	105	478	57.4	1.3
Ezekiel Elliott	101	413	66.5	7
Todd Gurley	99	422	60	2.8
Ronald Jones	97	472	62.6	4.2
Dalvin Cook	92	489	59.7	3.2
Jonathan Taylor	89	367	54.3	2.8
David Johnson	87	350	67.4	3.3
James Robinson	85	362	69.1	4.3
Kareem Hunt	83	387	43	3
Myles Gaskin	82	340	50	4.8
David Montgomery	82	305	58.6	4.7
Aaron Jones	75	389	53.6	5.6

The initial flow of your draft will quickly deplete your most compelling options at running back. However, Mixon remains available as a viable alternative for you to target before the conclusion of Round 2. That presents the opportunity to secure a back who will be the unquestioned workhorse within an improving offense. The release of Gio Bernard has eliminated all legitimate competition for backfield touches, which elevates Mixon among the more savvy Round 2 investments.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ADP26/RB17)

Edwards-Helaire became a first-round selection during 2020 drafts due to the allure of his opportunity within Kansas City’s high-octane offense. When it became clear that he would operate as the Chiefs’ RB1, his ADP rose to fifth overall. He began his rookie season by promptly leading all backs with 138 yards and generating a touchdown during KC’s season opener.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire in his first NFL game? 138 yards and one touchdown on 25 carries. ? @Clydro_22#ChiefsKingdom | #HOUvsKC pic.twitter.com/soo627t1OB

— NFL (@NFL) September 11, 2020

Edwards-Helaire was also second overall in rushing yardage from Weeks 1-6 (505/84.2 per game) and third overall in rushing attempts (107/17.8 per game). However, his per-game averages also decreased to 10.6 attempts and 42.6 yards per game from Weeks 7-17 after Le’Veon Bell was infused into the backfield. Edwards-Helaire also delivered only one more 100-yard performance and manufactured just three more touchdowns following his encouraging Week 1 results.

He completed the year at 17th overall in both attempts (181/13.9 per game) and yardage (803/61.8 per game) while also collecting 54 targets (4.2 per game). Many managers who made that Round 1 investment in Edwards-Helaire last season have been reluctant to replicate that process in 2021, as his ADP remained stagnant at 32 through much of February. However, other managers have chosen to capitalize on the opportunity to obtain an integral component in Andy Reid’s backfield during Round 3.  This has also fueled a rise of six slots in his ADP during the last 60 days. He still supplies appealing value before the impending NFL Draft, which is sustained by the lack of a genuine threat to siphon touches (Darrel Williams/Darwin Thompson).

Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks (ADP46/RB23)

22 backs are being selected before Carson is secured during Round 4 of current best-ball drafts. This includes several players who will experience the production-inhibiting impact of their team's backfield rotations. However, Carson has consistently demonstrated his ability to function effectively as Seattle’s primary back, and will not contend with a formidable challenge to his extensive workload (Rashaad Penny/DeeJay Dallas). The 26-year-old Carson has now missed 19 contests since 2017. But over 60% of those games transpired when he was absent for 12 games during his 2017 rookie season (broken ankle).

He finished seventh among all backs in rushing attempts during 2018 (247/17.6 per game), was fifth in rushing yardage (1,151/82.2 per game), and was also seventh in touchdowns (nine). He also rose to RB9 in scoring during 2019 (Weeks 1-15), tied for third in attempts (270/19.3 per game), and was fourth in yardage during that sequence (1,190/85.0 per game). Carson also placed fourth overall in yards after contact (734) before a fractured hip forced his absence in Week 17.

Incredible run by Chris Carson for the touchdown!!

Three touchdowns in a minute. What an instant redemption after that awful first half. #Seahawks pic.twitter.com/KO3lTn0qtx

— Samuel Gold (@SamuelRGold) October 12, 2020

Carson led the Seahawks in attempts and yardage last season while averaging 12.8 carries and 62.8 yards per game following his Week 12 return from a foot issue. He also finished just outside the top-10 in Football Outsiders’ DYAR (Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement) and DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average) following his season-long performance.

Multiple factors have also converged to add incentive toward targeting Carson. Pete Carroll’s preoccupation with the ground game is well-documented.  Carson’s 2020 backup (Carlos Hyde) is now a Jaguar, while perceived 2021 backup Penny missed 19 contests in 2019-2020. Carson was also rewarded with a $14.6 million contract in March which underscores his status as Seattle’s lead rusher. The limited collection of backs that commandeer massive workloads will diminish rapidly in the early rounds. This supplies the rationale to consider Carson at his current ADP.

 

Best Pre-Draft Value - Rounds 6-10

Damien Harris, New England Patriots (ADP 96/RB34)

Harris was consistently impressive during New England’s 2020 training camp and appeared destined to seize the Patriots’ RB1 responsibilities in his second season. That process was delayed temporarily from Weeks 1-3, as Harris recovered from hand surgery. But, he generated 100 yards in his season debut which was the fifth-highest total among all backs during Week 4 matchups. He also operated as New England’s most productive runner throughout 2020 while leading the Patriots in attempts per game (13.7) and rushing yards (691).

Weeks 4-15	Attempts	Atts/Gm	Yards	Yards/Gm
Derrick Henry	239	21.7	1360	123.6
Dalvin Cook	249	24.9	1190	119
James Robinson	197	17.9	860	78.2
Ronald Jones	143	14.3	758	75.8
David Montgomery	159	15.9	715	71.5
Damien Harris	137	13.7	691	69.1
Aaron Jones	130	14.4	665	73.9
Jonathan Taylor	136	13.6	660	66
Kenyan Drake	157	15.7	655	65.5
Josh Jacobs	177	17.7	655	65.5
Melvin Gordon	131	13.1	640	64
Nick Chubb	114	16.3	639	91.3
Alvin Kamara	134	12.2	624	56.7
Miles Sanders	111	12.3	620	68.9
Ezekiel Elliott	153	15.3	613	61.3
Kareem Hunt	145	13.2	589	53.5

Harris was also sixth among all backs in yardage (691/69.1 per game) and ninth in attempts (137/13.7 per game) entering Week 15 before an ankle issue sidelined him during New England’s final three contests. But despite demonstrating his ability to function as the Patriots’ most effective back, fantasy managers have been reluctant to select him until Round 8. This presents an opportunity to secure him for your roster, as many of the runners who remain available at that point of the draft will encounter more formidable obstacles in their path to a favorable workload.

It is possible that Bill Belichick will blend another back into the equation during the NFL Draft. But Harris's primary competitor for carries remains Sony Michel, who has consistently underwhelmed due to injuries and inefficiency. Michel did average a career-high 5.7 yards per attempt last season with his 79 carries. But Harris had surpassed him on the depth chart prior to his injury and should exceed the modest expectations of his ADP.

Kenyan Drake, Las Vegas Raiders (ADP 108/RB36) 

Exactly one year ago, Drake appeared primed to enter the 2020 regular season as Arizona’s lead back. The prospects of having him join the select group of true workhorses at his position propelled his ADP to 16 during best-ball drafts. Managers were also encouraged that he could build upon his prolific numbers during the Cardinals’ final eight games of 2019 (814 total yards/102 per game) – (643 rushing yards/80.4 per game). Drake did finish seventh among all backs in rushing attempts during 2020 (239/15.9 per game), was 12th in rushing yardage (955/63.7 per game), and achieved career-highs in each category. But, he only averaged 2.1 targets and 9.1 yards per game as a receiver.

He still finished at RB18 in point-per-game scoring (non-PPR). But, Arizona chose not to re-sign him, and the loss of lead back responsibilities caused interest in Drake to dwindle considerably when contrasted with 2020. But even if you have abstained from considering the 27-year-old during current drafts, his Round 9 ADP now offers value.

He has relocated to Las Vegas after Jon Gruden became enamored with the concept of injecting Drake’s versatility into the Raiders' attack. He was bestowed with a two-year contract ($11 million guaranteed), and Gruden can be expected to use him as both a rusher and receiver. Josh Jacobs will remain the RB1, but Drake should accumulate sufficient usage to reward managers during the season. He could also deliver high-quality outings if Jacobs is absent from the lineup.

Jeff Wilson Jr.,  San Francisco 49ers (ADP 110/RB37)

Wilson entered 2020 with career totals of only 257 snaps, 93 rushing attempts, 371 rushing yards, and four touchdowns. He was also operating as just one component within a congested San Francisco backfield that included Raheem Mostert, Jerick McKinnon, Tevin Coleman, and rookie JaMycal Hasty. However, Wilson established new career highs during his third season while his encouraging late-season performances should create a path toward consistent weekly usage in Kyle Shanahan’s offense this season.

Wilson ignited for 112 yards on 17 carries in Week 7 while Mostert was sidelined by a high ankle sprain. Wilson was unavailable from Weeks 8-11 while contending with his own ankle issue. But, he resurfaced in Week 12, and ultimately finished ninth among all backs in attempts (88/14.7 per game) and eighth in yardage (437/72.8 per game) during San Francisco’s final six matchups.

Weeks 12-17	Attempts	Yards	Yards/Gm	YPC	TDs
Derrick Henry	149	948	158	6.4	8
Jonathan Taylor	97	651	130.2	6.7	7
David Montgomery	116	598	99.7	5.2	7
Aaron Jones	88	570	95	6.5	3
Nick Chubb	94	492	82	5.2	7
Dalvin Cook	111	488	97.6	4.4	3
Melvin Gordon	93	463	77.2	5	3
Jeff Wilson	88	437	72.8	5	3
J.K. Dobbins	62	425	85	6.9	6
Cam Akers	95	424	84.8	4.5	2
Wayne Gallman	78	407	67.8	5.2	1
Alvin Kamara	70	401	80.2	5.7	8

Stay Angry Jeff ? 7-yard TD up the middle makes it 16-6 #49ers #SEAvsSF on FOX pic.twitter.com/jnKsznaane

— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) January 3, 2021

He was also fourth overall in attempts (58/19.3) and third yardage (319/106.3 per game) from Weeks 15-17 while accumulating four touchdowns as a rusher and receiver.

Weeks 15-17	Attempts	Yards	Yards/Gm	YPC	TDs
Derrick Henry	81	495	165	6.1	3
Jonathan Taylor	64	410	136.7	6.4	5
Jeff Wilson	58	319	106.3	5.5	2
David Montgomery	77	310	103.3	4	4
J.K. Dobbins	38	301	100.3	7.9	4
Aaron Jones	41	281	93.7	6.9	2
David Johnson	34	239	79.7	7	2
Josh Jacobs	54	234	78	4.3	3
Melvin Gordon	53	233	77.7	4.4	3
Sony Michel	36	219	73	6.1	0
Alvin Kamara	33	209	104.5	6.3	6
Dalvin Cook	39	205	102.5	5.3	2

Wilson also soared to RB6 in scoring during that span, as Mostert missed the team’s final two contests (ankle). Mostert was absent for a total of eight games during 2020, and Wilson capitalized after being entrusted with an extensive workload. Wilson could easily improve upon his 2020 output if he achieves sustained health throughout all 16 matchups. That should compel you to target him at his Round 10 ADP.

 

Best Pre-Draft Value - Rounds 11+

Nyheim Hines, Indianapolis Colts (ADP 127/RB42)

Nyheim Hines’ touchdown celebration is ?.@TheNyNy7 | @Colts | #ForTheShoe

?: #INDvsDET on CBS
?: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app: https://t.co/J6oAb5WnGm pic.twitter.com/zUEqd7QWba

— NFL (@NFL) November 1, 2020

Jonathan Taylor should remain cemented among the high-end RB1s for the foreseeable future. He will also confiscate a sizable workload with Indianapolis this season. However, Hines will also remain involved in the Colts' touch distribution throughout the year. Taylor only averaged 2.6 targets per game as a rookie, while Marlon Mack has only averaged 1.9 targets per game during his tenure with the team. Neither back is a threat to confiscate Hines’ role as Indy’s preferred pass-catching back, and his perpetual big-play potential can also result in significant gains on the ground.

He has repeatedly demonstrated the ability to flourish with these responsibilities during his first three seasons by delivering highly productive outings. These performances have been interspersed with other games in which his usage and output were virtually non-existent. But, that will be less problematic in the best-ball format, which allows him to operate as a viable (but inconsistent) point producer for fantasy managers.

Hines also finished third among all backs in targets during the 2020 regular season (76/4.8 per game) and was also third in both receptions (63/3.9 per game) and receiving yards (482/30.1 per game). He eclipsed a 50% snap share in three different matchups, which were his most prolific games of the season. That includes Week 10 when he vaulted to RB3 in PPR scoring while generating 115 total yards and two touchdowns on 17 touches. He also finished at RB4 in Week 1 (15 touches/73 total yards/two touchdowns) and accumulated 95 total yards on 18 touches in Week 12. The potential for Hines to provide a significant boost to your scoring during favorable matchups should motivate you to target him at his Round 12 ADP.

Gus Edwards, Baltimore Ravens (ADP 130/RB43)

The prospects of targeting Edwards may not produce the same level of enthusiasm that develops when you consider other options at the running back position. But, he maintains a consistent role within a Raven offense that utilized the ground game on a league-high 55.0% of their offensive plays last season, and no philosophical change in the team’s strategic approach is imminent.

Edwards will be operating in a backfield rotation with J.K. Dobbins - even though Dobbins will receive a higher-touch total. The tandem combined for 278 carries last season as Edwards established career highs in attempts (144), rushing yardage (723/45.2 per game), and touchdowns (six). Mark Ingram II had already receded from relevance as his role evaporated during 2020 (72 attempts/299 yards), but he has now relocated to Houston. This will redistribute the rushing opportunities among Edwards, Dobbins, and Lamar Jackson after the trio combined for 437 carries and 2,533 yards last season.

Edwards averaged 8.0 attempts and just 36.3 yards per game from Weeks 1-6 when Ingram was still pilfering carries. But, that rose to 9.6 attempts and 50.5 yards per game from Weeks 8-17 while Edwards averaged 10.0 attempts and 67.4 yards per game from Weeks 13-17. He also finished 12th overall with 337 yards during Baltimore’s final five regular-season matchups, was fifth with four rushes of 20+ yards, and averaged 6.7 per attempt during those contests. Edwards presents managers with steady usage that does not exist with many other backs that remain available in Round 11 of current drafts.

Michael Carter (ADP 137/RB44)

Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, and Javonte Williams have ascended beyond other rookie backs in most evaluations of this year’s draft prospects. That has propelled the ADPs for each member of that trio into Rounds 3-4 (Harris 29/Etienne.34/Williams 45). Their status as early-round selections should not be altered unless their post-NFL Draft destinations contain obstacles that will restrict their production this season.

But, even though these three newcomers are highly regarded in most assessments within the scouting community, there are other backs that have separated themselves among the rookies that comprise the next tier. This includes Carter and Trey Sermon, who have emerged as viable options among the draft prospects that remain available after Round 11, Both runners also provide enticing value as we await results from the impending NFL Draft.

Michael Carter equals his career high with a 3rd first-half touchdown today.

? https://t.co/WwMHuhOqNK#CarolinaFootball ? #BeTheOne pic.twitter.com/kUSss4oD3Y

— Carolina Football (@TarHeelFootball) December 5, 2020

The 5’-8”, 200-pound Carter generated 2,669 yards and 16 touchdowns from scrimmage during his final two seasons at North Carolina while operating in a rotation with Williams. He exceeded 1,000 rushing yards during both 2019 and 2020 while his 1,245 yards last season (113.2 per game) placed him fourth overall. Carter also collected 82 receptions and generated 656 yards as a pass-catching weapon. He is unlikely to seize lead-back responsibilities as a rookie. But, his elusiveness would allow him to secure a consistent weekly role as both a rusher and receiver if he emerges within a favorable environment.

Trey Sermon, (ADP 140/RB45)

Once your draft has progressed early and middle rounds, it is logical to locate additional backs that can be added to your arsenal at the position. This can become beneficial whenever your roster is impacted by injuries, unwanted committees, and substandard performances that negatively impact the scoring from your previous selections. You can locate a large number of veterans that remain available during the double-digit rounds. However, there are also factors that exist with a large percentage of these runners that present the rationale to avoid them at this point of your draft.

That provides the motivation for considering another promising rookie during Round 12 of your draft process, in hopes that he will surface in an encouraging landing spot following the NFL Draft. Most newcomers can still be obtained well after the big three (Harris/Etienne/Williams) have been secured during the early rounds. But, Sermon also joins Carter in delivering intriguing attributes, and he could reward any managers who select him near his ADP.

? Here's Sermon! Sermon! SERMON!

? Trey Sermon. Trey Sermon. TREY SERMON!

Here's a quick @treyera @OhioStateFB highlight, set to Gus Johnson's calls, to recognize his decision to enter the NFL draft. pic.twitter.com/9kdst9Mk42

— Ohio State on BTN (@OhioStateOnBTN) January 17, 2021

Sermon accumulated nearly 3,000 yards on the ground (2,946) during his four collegiate seasons, including the 870 that he accrued in 2020 with Ohio State. His most prolific numbers were assembled in 2018 when he generated 947 yards and 13 touchdowns on 164 attempts with Oklahoma. Sermon also exploded for a school record 331 yards during last year’s Big 10 Championship Game, then assembled 193 yards and another touchdown against Clemson in January’s Sugar Bowl. He has the size, quickness, and physicality to amass significant yardage at the NFL level. Particularly if he is infused into a situation that maximizes his strengths and lacks the obstructions of a crowded backfield.

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