RotoBaller PGA: One And Done Staff Picks - Valspar Championship

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the addition of a weekly PGA “One and Done” column. In this feature, our golf staff of Joe Nicely, Spencer Aguiar and Gianni Magliocco will provide their weekly golf picks every Wednesday. The purpose of this article is to present you with alternative options to consider and hopefully make your selection a much easier process weekly. With that plan in mind, let's get started!

I know we still have almost two-thirds of the season left, but Gianni's victory with Rory McIlroy at the Players Championship felt like a knockout blow. McIlroy's cash of $2.25 million is not only the largest single-event total on the board this season, but it also helped to surpass the 10 tournament sum that Joe or I have been able to accumulate so far. With the triumph, Gianni has stretched his lead to nearly 2.5 million over myself and a whopping 3.5 million versus Joe.

While the Valspar Championship features one of the lowest purses so far this season, eight of the top-25 players in the world have decided to give Copperhead their best shot. The strength of the field is surprising, but it presents us with an ample amount of options. Joe and I will be looking to cut into Gianni's lead, so without further ado, let's get straight into our picks for this week's event.

For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and Fanduel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course.

And you can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week.

Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots. 

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2019 Valspar Championship - Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead)

7,340 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Bermuda

It was somewhat surprising how many top-tiered players decided to show up for this year's Valspar Championship. The Masters is only three events away, and it seemed likely that many golfers could take the week off after competing in the Players Championship. However, that did not end up being the case, and eight players inside the top-25 in the world decided to show up this weekend.

Copperhead plays a lot longer than the 7,340 yards might indicate. There are five par-threes, and four of them measure beyond 200 yards. The four par-threes that stretch over 200 yards rank inside the nine hardest holes at the venue, and long iron play will be at a premium. There are 74 bunkers and eight water hazards, not to mention that the course plays 12 yards shorter off the tee than your average PGA Tour stop. That isn't necessarily an issue, but when you take into account that driving accuracy is also below tour average, you realize that Copperhead is one of the most challenging stops all season.

The final three holes are called the 'Snake Pit' and rank amongst the toughest three-hole stretches on tour. Strokes gained approach is always the most critical statistic, but it will be even more pronounced this weekend. If we look at past champions at the Valspar, strokes gained approach has been 14 times more influential than strokes gained off the tee. It is not uncommon to see that number three to five times higher on a given week, but 14 really emphasizes the fact that you need to be a good ball-striker to find success.

One and Done Selections

Joe Nicely - Patrick Reed

Alternate - 

Boy, Gianni really dealt us a knockout punch in last week’s Players Championship. It stings even more for me personally because I had Rory McIlroy in the Arnold Palmer Invitational two weeks ago...a tournament in which he was in the final group, but failed to close the deal.

As Bill Belichick once said, “We’re on to Cincinnati”, or in this case, Tampa Bay and the Valspar Championship. I was a little surprised by some of the big names that signed up to play on a really tough Copperhead Course this week, and while I desperately need a win, I’m going with a player in what I would consider to be the ‘second-tier’ of talent in this field. Patrick Reed is in no way a ‘second-rate’ player, but he never grades out as statistically well as the Dustin Johnson’s and Jon Rahm’s of the world. Despite his lack of statistical prowess, I’m going with Reed this week on a course where he has historically played very well. He just missed out on a playoff in last year’s Valspar, and has another runner-up finish and a T7 here since 2015.

Even though he’s the reigning Masters champion, Reed has been flying under the radar in 2019. He’s quietly put together a solid season with three top-15’s and two top-25’s in seven starts. Reed got himself on the PGA Tour by grinding out Monday qualifiers and I expect him to grind himself into contention once again this week on a mentally-demanding Copperhead layout. - Joe Nicely

Yearly Earnings - $1,111,238

Yearly Cuts Made - 9/10

Spencer Aguiar - Sergio Garcia

Alternate - Brandt Snedeker

I don't have much wiggle room now that Gianni has seized a lead of $2.5 million against me. It has to be pedal to the metal for the foreseeable future, although this week probably isn't the event to burn Dustin Johnson because of the inferior purse compared to future tournaments coming up.

The Valspar Championship requires quality iron play, and perhaps nobody is more dialed-in than Sergio Garcia. Through 16 PGA Tour rounds this season, Garcia ranks first on tour in strokes gained approach and enters the event third compared to the field in par-five birdie or better percentage. Outside of Johnson, I believe Garcia is the second most likely golfer to win the tournament this weekend, and winners will be what I need if I want to get myself back into contention.- Spencer Aguiar

Yearly Earnings - $2,184,562

Yearly Cuts Made - 9/10

Gianni Magliocco - Henrik Stenson

Alternate - 

A change in schedule takes us to the Valspar this week and with it an improved field. But I'm taking a regular at the tournament in the form of Henrik Stenson. The Swede has an excellent record at the event, finishing in the top-11 three of the last four years. That form puts Stenson second in this week's field for strokes gained total at the course since 2012.

Recent form for Stenson has not been great. He missed the cut at last week's Players, and he even missed the cut at last year's Valspar. But Stenson looked very sharp at Bay Hill just a couple of weeks ago, and after Rory McIlroy's win last week, I don't mind rolling the dice on the former Open Champion at a course which is one of his favorites.- Gianni Magliocco

Yearly Earnings - $4,634,118

Yearly Cuts Made - 8/10

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