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Welcome to the Divisional Round, RotoBallers! We have a fun lineup of football games this weekend with the Bengals vs. Titans leading us off for the weekend
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Saturday showdown slate on January 22nd between the Bengals and Titans. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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DFS Captain/MVP Plays
My general strategy with the Captain/MVP slot is to think about what kind of a game it will be. If it's expected to be a low-scoring, grind it out type of a game then rostering a running back in the slot makes a lot of sense. If it is expected to be a high-scoring affair, then usually rostering a quarterback or receiver in the slot makes sense. Of course, there are always exceptions but generally, that's what guides me.
Derrick Henry ($16,500 DK, $16,000 FD)
With Tennessee implied for 25.5 points, and Cincinnati implied for 22 points, this game projects as a high-scoring game. Generally, that favors the passing game in terms of the captain spot. Coming back from an injury, it's uncertain how much he will play if he does play. This is a likely fade from me unless his projected ownership is expected to be too low.
Joe Burrow ($16,200 DK, $16,500 FD)
Cincinnati is expected to be down in this game and Burrow has looked good. If Cincinnati were to win or score a lot of points, it would be because of Joe Burrow most likely. Tennessee also has the No. 2 run defense and the No. 25 pass defense in the league.
Other Captains/MVPs: Ryan Tannehill, Ja'Marr Chase, A.J. Brown, Joe Mixon
DFS Flex Plays
Tee Higgins ($7,200 DK, $11,000 FD)
This is a better play on DraftKings than FanDuel but Higgins is one of my favorite plays in this midrange. He had 1,091 yards receiving on the season but a quiet game last week with just 10 yards, so I believe DFS players will be off him this week due to those results. Even priced up on FanDuel, he should be a solid play.
A.J. Brown ($8,600 DK, $13,500 FD)
Again, more of a DraftKings play but Brown has the chance to be the top receiver on the day. If I can afford him, I am putting him in my lineups. This is easier to do on DraftKings than FanDuel.
Other Flex Options: Ja'Marr Chase, Joe Mixon, Ryan Tannehill, Joe Burrow, Julio Jones, C.J. Uzomah, Tyler Boyd
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DFS Value Plays
Randy Bullock ($4,200 DK, $9,000 FD)
Lots of points mean a lot of kicks. Field goals and extra points help here. Won't have a ceiling of a receiver or running back, but will have a nice floor.
Evan McPherson ($4,000 DK, $9,500 FD)
Similar idea as Bullock. We expect scoring in this game.
Other Value Plays: Titans DST (what if Burrow plays poorly on the road?), Geoff Swaim, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Dontrell Hilliard
Lineup Construction Strategies
My biggest advice with showdown is to pick a narrative you think is likely and run with it. The most likely outcome is both teams score a lot of points. The players that are likely to do well in that scenario will be very chalky. If you want to play that outcome, roster players that are less likely to be owned. Maybe Julio Jones scores a touchdown instead of A.J. Brown for example.
If I were playing in a cash game, I try to get A.J. Brown, Tee Higgins, etc., in my lineup. If playing in a large field tournament, I need to create leverage. I either need to take players that are less likely to score in a high-scoring game but still somewhat likely to do it or I need to roster players in a scenario where the game is not a high-scoring game and I roster both running backs with a bunch of value plays everywhere else.
If you make the obvious plays in a large tournament and they all hit, at best you are going to chop the pot with a lot of people. Good luck!
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