RADIO
I feel like a TV announcer promoting a new episode. That's because this week in the NFL, we have a special Saturday Week 15 DFS slate. I'm also expecting the next sentence to be "After a trying year for a young quarterback, he enters a small Wisconsin town while his fellow team member is unable to play due to a harrowing injury...." followed soon after by "...and Zach learns what it means to be there after he faces an unspeakable challenge....". Am I right? I promise my contrarian picks for this week's "special" Saturday slate won't be so dramatic.
Let's talk about the cold hard truth instead. When playing a two-game slate, the best way to take down a GPP is to do so with a lightly owned player who goes on to break the slate. Of course, the chalk can break a slate too, but you will find yourself more likely to be splitting the winnings if you go that route.
I like finding those players who are likely far less owned but have the potential to boost your entry far more than most expected. So who are those players? The good news is you don't even have to wait for a commercial. Here are some of my favorite Saturday slate GPP picks.
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The "Fantastic Fourth" Option at QB
Green Bay is going to be the popular chalk, starting with Aaron Rodgers. Coming off a fantastic game last week, Allen will likely be a popular pivot. The popular value option is going to be Drew Lock who might finally be "figuring it out". Especially with Buffalo in the bottom half of the league when it comes to preventing fantasy points to quarterbacks. However, Buffalo is closer to the middle than they are the bottom, so I prefer the pivot to Teddy Bridgewater.
Bridgewater actually brings a nice floor to the table, as his worst game this year resulted in double-digit DKFPs while Rodgers and Lock both have had single-digit DFKP outings. His ceiling is a little lower, but I like the fact that he's playing the NFC's top seed. After all, his best game of the year was when he played the AFC's top seed, Kansas City, and threw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns. And he made his owners even happier when he ran one in as well.
Furthermore, the Packers are not the stoutest defense either. They've given up some big passing totals to some of the weaker passing teams like 280 passing yards to the Colts or 282 passing yards to the 49ers. If you're looking to zag when others are zigging, there are far worse options than Bridgewater.
The Rodney Dangerfield Option at RB
Bridgewater however is not even the Carolina play I like the most this week. That is Mike Davis. But like Rodney Dangerfield, Davis seems to get no respect.
Do you realize Davis has 926 combined yards already this year? Let's just say that I think he easily smashes through the 1,000-yard mark this week. That's not exactly going out on a limb given that Davis has 15 PPR points in two of his last three starts. Green Bay can be beaten by the pass, but the run is where they are really susceptible. In five of the last nine games, the Packers have been bulldozed for 90 or more yards by running backs. They've allowed RBs to rush for 13 TDs, which is the fourth most in the league.
They're getting bombed through the air as well by running backs. Green Bay has allowed opposing backs to haul in 74 passes this season. Eight running backs have at least four catches against the Packers. Davis himself is averaging nearly five catches a game. But it's not just the receptions. The five receiving TDs given up to running backs by Green Bay makes them tied for the second most. Finally, they are giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing RBs and that includes 27.3 fantasy points two of the last three weeks.
And of course, there's this....
Every Mike Davis owner that made the playoffs pic.twitter.com/m6GZpV6ajH
— Chris Moxley (@ChrisMoxley19) December 10, 2020
The "Don't You Forget About Me" Option at WR
No, this is not a reference to the awesome Simple Minds song from The Breakfast Club. But it is the simple minds that will forget that John Brown is an option this week. Brown was starting to come on strong in his last two games, hauling in 8 of 11 targets for 99 yards and six of eight targets for 72 yards. He has an even more impressive 13.3 YPC on the season. And let's not forget that Brown has multiple 1K yard seasons as well as multiple seasons with half a dozen TDs or more.
And while we are discussing what Brown has done already, it's also worth noting that he has some success against the Broncos previously. This Broncos secondary is decent but not quite as strong as it has been in the last few years. However, in each of Brown's last two games versus Denver, he posted double-digit PPR days.
I'm not grabbing Brown as my WR1. But priced outside of the top dozen WR options? Yeah, I'm gonna grab the Sheriff.
"Shhhh. Be Vewy, Vewy Quiet" Option at TE
I thought Dawson Knox might break out this season. However, with time spent on both the IR and Covid-19 lists this season, Knox has not had a lot of opportunities to shine. Yet he's been healthy the last three weeks and is starting to shine. He has four catches or a TD in each of his last three games, including one with both. Even more encouraging is that Josh Allen targeted him seven times last week.
You go ahead and get yourself a minimum salary TE. Or spend up and grab Robert Tonyan. I am more than happy to take someone from the cushy middle and curl up with Dawson Knox. Okay, that didn't sound right. Let's just say that Fort Knox is not the only Knox I know has security!
Good luck with your Week 15 Saturday DFS GPP picks!
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