RADIO
Let's hope Week 16 is a little less chaotic than Week 15 as a bunch of games were rescheduled and we had some wildly unpredictable results. But this column is where I try to predict the unpredictable and find some spots that the rest of the industry might be overlooking. Last week we did have some hits with Aaron Rodgers and D'Onta Foreman turning in solid performances. But I whiffed pretty badly on Aiyuk, Claypool, and Collins. We are going to have some swings and misses like that in this type of article and always keep in mind that these are plays that are intended to be sprinkled in among some of the more popular plays - you don't need to try to make a lineup with a bunch of these players all in it now.
As someone who writes, edits, and digests a lot of DFS content during the week I often see the same players recommended in article after article across the industry. There are dozens of fantasy football or DFS sites these days and there's no shortage of content to consume. But so many of these articles just recommend the same plays over and over again, right? Not me - not in this article, at least.
If you want some chalky recommendations, you can check out some other articles on our site or others. And if you're looking for cash game plays, you've come to the wrong place. This article is going to focus on GPP plays only and I will attempt to unearth some potential slate-winning plays that are projected to be low-owned. The goal each week is to find seven players that are projected under 7% ownership on Sunday who have the potential to win you a lot of money. Let's see what we can do. Here are my top low-owned pivots for the main slate on DraftKings on Sunday, December 26th.
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Quarterback NFL DFS Pivots
Joe Burrow @ Baltimore ($5,900)
Median Projection: 18.5 DK points
Ceiling Projection: 32.3 DK points
6% Projected Ownership
We went after the Baltimore secondary last week with Aaron Rodgers, so why not go back to the well here with Joe Burrow? The Bengals are in a great position here to take control of the division with a win and Burrow has been a big part of their success this season as he's thrown 26 touchdowns to only 14 interceptions in his sophomore campaign.
Burrow's biggest performance this season came against this Ravens defense back in week 7 when he threw for 416 yards and three scores in a 41-17 rout of Baltimore. While the Bengals like to establish the run when they can, they're not likely to dominate Baltimore on the ground and Burrow is going to have to make plays in the passing game. With three really good receivers who are mismatches for this Baltimore secondary, Burrow should have an opportunity to bounce back this week after a mediocre outing against Denver last week.
Running Back NFL DFS Pivots
Javonte Williams @ Oakland ($6,100)
Median Projection: 14.2 DK points
Ceiling Projection: 27.9 DK points
5.5% Projected Ownership
The fact that Williams is still stuck in a timeshare with Melvin Gordon III has been maddening to season-long owners and it will also keep his ownership low in DFS contests, especially since he's no longer all that cheap. He's actually three hundred more dollars than Gordon, who has out-touched him the last two weeks since returning from injury.
So why play a guy stuck in a timeshare? Well, it's because Williams is the more dynamic runner and better pass-catching option. And this spot for the Denver running game is an elite one as the Raiders have been over, around, and through this season. If Gordon gets hurt in the first quarter and Williams ends up with 20+ touches, he is going to smash. If Williams breaks a 50-yard touchdown and Gordon doesn't end up scoring any TDs, he's a great play. Obviously, you could get stuck holding the bag if Gordon gets the red zone work instead, but that's why he's a great GPP play. No one wants to tilt some Gordon TDs, but Williams talent is well-worth investing in this week in this matchup.
Joshua Kelley ($4,000) @ Houston
Median Projection: NA
Ceiling Projection: NA
1% Projected Ownership
I will keep this one super short and simple. Everyone is gravitating towards Justin Jackson this week with Austin Ekeler out. Heck, Ekeler even told everyone to play Jackson on his fantasy football show, and Jackson out-touched Kelley 14-7 last week against the Chiefs.
But how do we really know how these touches will break down this week? Jackson is the play in cash, but what's stopping Kelley from having a really good day, too, if he ends up with 12-15 touches and gets into the zone? We know Houston's run defense is a porous unit and this game script could set up really well for them to just run the ball down Houston's throat in the second half. We know injuries happen all the time, too, and if Jackson gets hurt and has to leave the game for any extended period of time then Kelley is going to walk right into plenty of opportunities.
Wide Receiver NFL DFS Pivots
Mecole Hardman vs. Pittsburgh ($3,500)
Median Projection: 7 DK points
Ceiling Projection: 27.6 DK points
2% Projected Ownership
If Tyreek Hill (and potentially Travis Kelce, too) ends up missing this game, Mahomes is going to need some of his other receivers to step up. The Steelers like to blitz and are going to attempt to stop the run and force Mahomes into quick throws. That could mean some man coverage for Hardman and the Chiefs wideouts and Hardman is the kind of speedster who can win those matchups.
While Byron Pringle has emerged as the competition for targets as the "other KC receiver" it's Hardman who is still the guy who can take the top of the defense or make some big runs after the catch. I see Pringle being a little higher-owned if Hill is out, but I want Hardman of the two as I think he ends up lining up in the slot more often which is where Pittsburgh is the most vulnerable.
Laquon Treadwell @ New York Jets ($3,500)
Median Projection: 9.2 DK points
Ceiling Projection: 17.1 DK points
4.5% Projected Ownership
Treadwell has double-digit DK points now in three straight games and is coming off his best game as a Jaguar last week when he caught six balls for 57 yards. If Laviska Shenault can't clear the COVID protocols by Sunday, then Treadwell is likely to see even more targets this week and a matchup with the Jets secondary is too good to pass up. This ownership could rise a bit if Shenault is definitely ruled out, but I still don't think he's all that likely to become too popular.
Most DFS players are going to prioritize James Robinson in their lineups this week and I'm sure a lot of people will have the same "can I really play two Jaguars" reactions when they try putting J-Rob and Treadwell into the same build. Play Robinson in cash and consider Treadwell for GPPs as the Jags offense could be in line for one of their better days this season against the Jets.
Isaiah McKenzie @ New England ($3,500)
Median Projection: 5.6 DK points
Ceiling Projection: 16.5 DK points
1% Projected Ownership
The Bills find themselves awfully thin at receiver now that both Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis are out for Sunday's huge game against the Patriots. Buffalo badly needs a win here if they want to win the division and I'm sure they are motivated to get back at the Pats after New England beat them at home in dominant fashion.
That game featured bad weather and winds and set up perfectly for New England to run the ball while it was a nightmare for the Bills who rely on their passing game so much. I expect the Bills to play better this time around and score some points on a Pats team that was humbled by the Colts last week.
McKenzie is a speedster who has been relegated mainly to special teams and 4-5 receiver sets. Now he should move into the WR3 role and is likely to line up in the slot with Emmanuel Sanders operating on the outside opposite of Stefon Diggs. I look for Buffalo to utilize McKenzie in the short passing game and in the past they've been known to scheme him the ball with a few reverses, jet sweeps, or screens. He could be the spark this Bills offense needs and at the stone minimum price, I have some interest here in a player with his speed who is likely to be a bigger part of this offense this week.
Tight End NFL DFS Pivots
Noah Fant @ Oakland ($4,400)
Median Projection: 9 DK points
Ceiling Projection: 19.5 DK points
2% Projected Ownership
I can't say I have all that much confidence in any player who has to rely on Drew Lock in order to get the ball, but Noah Fant is in a really great spot this week. It's baffling how much talent Denver has in their receiving corps that goes unused on a weekly basis. Fant is a stud with incredible athleticism and Denver would be wise to get him involved this week. The Raiders give up the most points in the league to opposing tight ends and Fant had his best output of the season early this year against them when he caught nine of eleven targets for 97 yards and a TD.
Perhaps Lock will be a spark for this Denver offense this week. I like Denver to beat up on the Raiders as they try to remain in playoff contention. If the running backs don't steal the show, it could be Fant who feasts on a poor Oakland defensive unit.
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