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It's Conference Championship Weekend, RotoBallers! I can't believe we're in the playoffs already. We have what should be a crazy offensive matchup in a rematch from week 17 as the playoff "darlings" the Cincinnati Bengals head to Kansas City to take on the offensive superpower Chiefs. It's hard to repeat the excitement we saw last weekend, but I'm sure these two teams will try.
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues tonight with Sunday Afternoon Football. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Bengals vs. Chiefs NFL DFS showdown slate on January 30th. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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DFS Captain/MVP Plays
Patrick Mahomes ($16,800 DK, $17,500 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 5,621 passing yards, 45 touchdowns, 14 interceptions.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 34/7% (3rd), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 11.6% (24th), per Football Outsiders.
Mahomes has saved his best football for the playoffs, and boy does it make for an exciting watch. He's logged 38.06 and 40.02 points on FanDuel, and 41.1 and 43 point performances on DraftKings, respectively. The "SNF" matchup against the Bills last weekend was spectacular, and I can't predict a repeat performance, but I'll ride the trend as Mahomes is playing like a demigod right now. He threw for 259 yards and two touchdowns against the Bengals back in week 17, but I don't think Joe Burrow and the Bengals go away quietly, so I'm expecting somewhat of a shootout here.
Ja'Marr Chase ($15,000 DK, $13,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 146 targets, 95 receptions, 1680 receiving yards, 14 receiving touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 24.27% target rate, 23.08% red-zone target rate, 14 end zone targets.
- Individual Matchup (vs Mike Hughes): No Data.
This is going to be an expensive slate, as both teams are decently consolidated and have a lot of big names manning their offenses. I personally have Chase as my favorite "non-QB" 1.5x player in this one, as his explosive playmaking ability (much like counterparts Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce), can really send your lineups to the moon. Chase has logged over 100 yards in each of his first two playoff games and has put up excellent fantasy production without finding the end zone. My bold prediction is that he goes for two touchdowns on Sunday, and I really don't think the Chiefs have a (defensive) answer for him.
Other Captains/MVPs: Tyreek Hill, Jerick McKinnon, Joe Burrow
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DFS Flex Plays
Joe Burrow ($10,400 DK, $16,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 5,203 passing yards, 36 touchdowns, 15 interceptions.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 16.4% (15th), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 11.3% (23rd), per Football Outsiders.
"Joe Sheisty" has been an internet favorite during these playoffs, and rightfully so. The 2020 National Champion has battled back from a torn ACL and led the Bengals to their first AFC Championship appearance in over 30 years. He hasn't had an excellent fantasy output in those two playoff games, but he hasn't necessarily had to. This changes on Sunday, as it's expected that the Chiefs are going to ride the momentum of last Sunday night and light the scoreboard up in all four quarters. Joe Burrow will try and channel whatever he had going on back in week 17, where he threw for 446 yards and four touchdowns against these same Chiefs.
Jerick McKinnon ($5,000 DK, $10,000 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 34 attempts, 147 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, 33 targets, 24 receptions, 242 receiving yards, two receiving touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 2.39% attempt rate, 3.6% target rate, 5% red-zone target rate.
- Offensive Rush DVOA: 0.7% (10th), per Football Outsiders.
- Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -9.8% (13th), per Football Outsiders.
While I think his price is egregious on FanDuel, I think Jerick McKinnon is an absolute steal on DraftKings. Since becoming a major part of the offense in week 18, McKinnon has grabbed 14 receptions on 16 targets for 161 yards and two touchdowns. I don't anticipate him doing much on the ground, but his receiving ability out of the backfield shouldn't be understated and will certainly come in handy on Sunday. The Bengals are 19th in DVOA against running backs in the passing game, and I think this is a situation where McKinnon easily hits his DK value. We're going to need some lower-priced options on this slate, and I think McKinnon is the perfect guy for that. I love him as a contrarian MVP if you want to fill your line with the biggest names on the slate.
Other Flex Options: Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins
DFS Value Plays
C.J. Uzomah ($5,600 DK, $8,500 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 77 targets, 62 receptions, 628 receiving yards, six touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 12.33% target rate, 13.46% red-zone target rate, three end zone targets.
- Individual Matchup (vs Willie Gay Jr.): 15% target rate per route covered, 81% catch rate, 0.25 fantasy points per route covered.
Uzomah has come alive in the playoffs for the Bengals, created an excellent safety blanket for Joe Burrow when under pressure. He has 13 receptions on 14 targets for 135 yards in a touchdown in those two games, and I don't see him stopping this weekend. He caught just four of six targets for 32 yards against the Chiefs in week 17, but after the last two week's performances, it's hard to think that Zac Taylor won't scheme a couple of plays around him. He's a solid value play on both websites and I'll have plenty of shares across the board.
Evan McPherson ($4,000 DK, $8,500 FD)
Key Stats
- 2021 Stats: 41 field goals attempted, 36 field goals made, 49/51 PAT.
This cat is something else. He's been perfect in the playoffs (8/8 FG, 3/3 XP), including a 54 yarder on Saturday against the Titans. I do have a slight concern that he won't be used as frequently this week due to the Bengals taking more chances to try and keep up with the Chiefs, but I think he's a safe play considering the fact that whenever he steps on the field, it's a good chance he's scoring you points. Both kickers in this game are excellent, but I'll roll with McPherson due to recent success as well as the fact that he's cheaper.
Other Value Plays: Harrison Butker, Byron Pringle, Tyler Boyd, Derrick Gore
Enjoy your weekend and good luck everyone!
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