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Welcome to Week 7, RotoBallers! We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues tonight with Sunday Night Football. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Sunday Night Football showdown slate on October 24th. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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DFS Captain/MVP Plays
Carson Wentz ($15,300 DK, $14,000 FD)
Fortunately for us in this one, the better quarterback (at least from a fantasy perspective) is the cheaper of the two on this slate. It appears that Carson Wentz has settled into Indianapolis, throwing 1,545 yards with nine touchdowns and just one interception through his first six games as a Colt. Aside from an outlier week, where he scored just 7.8 DK points and 7.76 FD points, he's eclipsed 17 points on both sites in his five of the first six weeks. He draws a solid matchup against San Fran, who has a DVOA of 5.7%, which ranks 14th in the league. He'll be without his #1 receiver T.Y. Hilton, but it shouldn't be too much of an issue as Hilton has played just one game thus far.
Deebo Samuel ($14,400 DK, $13,000 FD)
Rather than pay up for Jimmy, I would rather just grab his number one target and keep the savings. Deebo has a whopping 32.91% target share, catching 31 of 52 targets for 548 yards and four touchdowns through the first five games. He is the clear 'WR1' in San Francisco, who has a 6.5% DVOA (21st) against the position. He has a decent matchup against Rock Ya-Sin on an individual level, who allows a 73% catch rate and 0.21 fantasy points per route run. In a slate that we need savings, I'll be looking at splitting my captainship between guys like Wentz, Deebo, and Brandon Aiyuk on D.K. Metcalf, and pairing the 49ers pass-catchers with Jimmy Garoppolo.
Other Captains/MVPs: Jonathan Taylor, Brandon Aiyuk
DFS Flex Plays
Jimmy Garoppolo ($10,600 DK, $14,500 FD)
Jimmy G will get the start tomorrow for the Niners, taking the field for the first time since he left the game in Week 4 to an injury. Jimmy had actually been better than I had thought prior to his injury, logging 925 yards, five touchdowns, and two interceptions in his first three (and a half) games this season. It's likely that the Colts' defense will force Kyle Shanahan and Garoppolo to throw the ball, with a defensive funnel that really points to passing. Indy has the best DVOA against the run (-38.3%), but is 29th in DVOA against the pass (27.6%). I wouldn't expect San Fran to "air it out," which is the reason I won't be captaining him. But the matchup is too good to fade him, so I'll have him in most if not all of my lineups.
Michael Pittman Jr. ($8,800 DK, $12,000 FD)
With the news of T.Y. Hilton being downgraded to OUT in this one, it opens up a solid value door for Michael Pittman. Pittman has logged 46 targets this year, catching 31 of them for 403 yards and a touchdown. It's important to note that he only saw three targets last week when Hilton was in there, but logged at least seven targets without Hilton in the lineup for the four weeks prior to that. It's likely he'll see Josh Norman for a good amount of his snaps tonight, and while Norman has allowed just a 56% catch rate, he allows 0.27 fantasy points per route covered.
Other Flex Options: Brandon Aiyuk, Zach Pascal
DFS Value Plays
Mo Alie-Cox ($5,200 DK, $7,500)
Mo Allie-Cox has seemed to build a solid rapport with QB Carson Wentz, especially in or around the end zone. Over the past three weeks, he's logged seven receptions on 12 targets for 120 yards and three touchdowns. While on the surface it appears the 49ers have a staunch DVOA against the TE (-13.7%, 9th), the individual matchup against Azeez Al-Shaair is a rather soft one. Al-Shaair has been getting thrown at quite a bit, with a 22% target rate per route run. On those targets, he allows a 74% catch rate and 0.43 fantasy points per route.
Michael Badgley ($4,200 DK, $9,000 FD)
Michael Badgley has taken over the kicking role in Indy, due to the absence of starter Rodrigo Blankenship. The former Charger was solid last week against Houston, going 4-4 on extra points as well as knocking down a 41-yard field goal. The 49ers have allowed six field goal attempts in five games, and if Indianapolis stalls in the red zone like they were earlier in the season, Badgley should have no problem hitting value.
Other Value Plays: Kyle Juszczyk, Mohamed Sanu, Ross Dwelley
OVERALL SLATE NOTE: After going through and looking at the entire slate, I would suggest playing guys like Samuel and Aiyuk at the captain spot on DK, rather than Garoppolo and Wentz in a lot of lineups. The value outside of Cox and Badgley is scarce, and you want to make sure you're diversifying your lineups with guys like Jonathan Taylor and Nyheim Hines as well. While I don't find either defense "optimal" on this slate, I'll have shares of both in the event we have a defensive showdown.
Enjoy your Sunday night, and good luck, everyone!
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