RADIO
The Texas Rangers made some massive investments in the team’s offense this past offseason, signing free agent infielders Corey Seager and Marcus Semien to long-term contracts worth a combined $500 million. Those marquee moves put the Rangers back on the map in the AL West.
Unfortunately, the newly-signed duo struggled immensely out of the gate this year. Semien was hitting south of the Mendoza line by the end of May and Seager wasn’t doing much better with a .232/.302/.438 slash line at that same point in time.
June has been a different story for Semien and several other Rangers hitters as the team’s offense has begun to wake up. In today’s article, we’ll look at what fantasy managers should be looking to do with the primary hitters in the Rangers lineup.
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Marcus Semien Fantasy Outlook
When you’re two months into the season and you have a player on your fantasy squad slashing .199/.266/.274 with just one home run despite not missing any time, you begin to get this nagging feeling to trade or even drop the player.
But patience is arguably a fantasy manager’s most essential trait and Marcus Semien’s past few weeks are perfect evidence of its worthiness.
Through 13 games in June, Semien is slashing .321/.368/.623 with five home runs, five stolen bases, seven RBI, and 10 runs. The highlight of his month came during the team’s doubleheader against the Cleveland Guardians on June 7th. He went 7-for-8 with three home runs across the two-game set.
Marcus Semien had ????? hits and ????? homers today ?
No one's done that since 1973. pic.twitter.com/qwPOkGqX9l
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) June 8, 2022
So here’s the million-dollar question: Is Marcus Semien back?
As always, the answer isn’t a simple “yes” or “no” and it also greatly depends on whether you’re expecting him to replicate something close to his elite 2021 campaign (45 home runs, 102 RBI, 115 runs, .873 OPS).
Semien wasn’t just a victim of bad luck during his dreadful first two months of the year. His underlying metrics wholly supported his weak surface numbers. From Opening Day until the end of May, he had an average exit velocity south of 86 mph to go along with a .292 xSLG in April and a .358 xSLG in May.
His peripherals certainly look much better overall in June than they did in April and May as seen here:
However, they still pale in comparison to his 2021 metrics. He posted career-highs in both hard-hit rate (41.3%) and average exit velocity (89.7 mph) last year. He never had a month with an average exit velocity below 88 mph last season:
Despite the concerning power slip, Semien has at least shown some extremely promising signs in the stolen base department. He’s already attempted 12 stolen bases this year, successfully stealing a base on 11 of those attempts. That puts him on a 162-game pace of nearly 30 stolen bases. Last year, he set his career-high with 15 steals on 16 attempts.
To succinctly sum things up, Semien still isn’t looking like anything even close to the fantasy stud he was last season. But he still has the potential to be a clear top-100 player. He will remain a must-roster player in all formats going forward and a must-start player most weeks. If someone in your league is trying to sell high on Semien, he’s worth inquiring about, just make sure that you aren’t buying too high. His stolen base output and second base eligibility make him a unique asset, even though we won’t see him come close to flirting with his gaudy 2021 stats.
Adolis Garcia Fantasy Outlook
Rangers outfielder Adolis Garcia had a breakout year as a 28-year-old last season. Seeing his first extended run in the majors in 2021, he mashed 31 home runs while compiling 16 stolen bases, 90 RBI, and 77 runs over 149 games. The red flags on his game were clear last year. He struck out 31.2% of the time (5th percentile), walked 5.1% of the time (6th percentile), and had a .243 batting average to go along with an 8th percentile .220 xBA.
As is the case with Semien, Garcia has had a fantastic June thus far, slashing .306/.370/.551 while compiling four home runs, four stolen bases, 10 RBI, and six runs.
Over the season as a whole, he’s managed to maintain his strong hard contact metrics with a 91.8 mph average exit velocity (90th percentile) and a 46.4% hard-hit rate (80th percentile). Meanwhile, he’s lowered his GB/FB rate from 1.07 last year to 0.92 this year while increasing his line drive rate from 16.2% last year to 23% this year. As a result, he has a much more digestible .268 xBA (58th percentile) so far this year. That expected metric suggests there’s some solid room for growth in his batting average as he’s currently hitting .244, basically right where he was at last year when his xBA was nearly 50 points lower than this year.
Garcia has been much more active on the base paths this season. He has stolen nine bases on 11 attempts after attempting just 21 stolen bases last year. His current steal rate puts him on a 162-game pace of about 25 steals. If he remains healthy and continues running, he should be able to notch his first 20/20 season this year.
Unfortunately for Garcia, plate discipline has remained a problem. His strikeout rate has decreased a bit to 27.8% (14th percentile) and his walk rate has increased slightly to 5.6% (19th percentile), but his whiff rate (34.3%) is right where it was last year (34.2%). And even as he’s put together a strong June, his month-long whiff rate is 34.7%.
Garcia should be rostered and started in all leagues while he’s producing like he is right now. While his increased stolen bases provide hope for growth, his problematic plate discipline suggests that his overall room for growth is a bit limited. His home run and stolen base potential make him particularly enticing in rotisserie leagues and head-to-head categories leagues. I’d hold onto him in those formats if you have him and I’d be willing to buy him as well if the price is right – just don’t target him for a top-30 outfielder value.
Nathaniel Lowe Fantasy Outlook
Heading into June, first baseman Nathaniel Lowe was slashing .259/.316/.361 with just three home runs over 43 games. Over 13 games in June, he’s looked like a completely different hitter. He’s slashed .346/.359/.692 with five home runs.
Dating back to the start of 2021, his first season with the Rangers, the story with Lowe has been his groundball rate. When he’s been able to consistently lift the ball, he’s looked like a borderline fantasy stud. However, when he’s driven the ball into the ground too frequently, he’s looked like waiver wire fodder.
Over the first two months of the 2021 season, he hit .249/.353/.403 while racking up eight home runs and 30 RBI. Over the final four-plus months of the year, he mustered just 10 home runs and 42 RBI. He had a high ground ball rate over those first two months last year, but it was nothing compared to what his ground ball rate wound up being for the remainder of the year. As you can see from his month-to-month breakdown below, he had a ground ball rate north of 50% in each of the last four months of the year with a GB/FB rate above 2.10 in three of those four months.
We’ve seen a reverse trend thus far for Lowe this season. He came out of the gate pounding the ball into the ground with a 3.40 GB/FB rate, but he’s managed to greatly reduce his ground balls over the past few months, including an extremely palatable 36.1% ground ball rate so far in June.
First base is an extremely deep position, which puts more pressure on Lowe to deliver satisfying power numbers. There’s a chance he’s figured something out over the past month or so and will be able to put his groundball woes behind him. If you need an everyday player with considerable upside, Lowe is worth taking a chance on. His early-season struggles led to him being dropped to the bottom third of the Rangers’ lineup. But lately, we’ve seen him primarily hitting sixth and if he continues to stay hot, he may be back in the cleanup or fifth spot in the order soon.
Ezequiel Duran Fantasy Outlook
The Rangers called up infield prospect Ezequiel Duran at the start of the month and he certainly hasn’t disappointed thus far. Over his first 10 major league games, he’s slashed .325/.342/.525 with two home runs, two stolen bases, five RBI, and eight runs.
Duran was having a fantastic year at Double-A prior to being called up. The 23-year-old compiled seven home runs, seven stolen bases, 31 RBI, and 34 runs over 45 games while slashing .317/.365/.574.
The rookie has been successful thus far despite a 58.6% ground ball rate and a 2.13 GB/FB rate. He’s only hit eight fly balls, but two of them have gone over the fence. His .407 BABIP has helped fuel his .317 batting average. Duran’s speed (97th percentile sprint speed) should allow him to maintain a high .300s BABIP going forward.
He’s been primarily hitting seventh in the lineup thus far, but – as is the case with Lowe – he’ll be moved up in the lineup if he continues to hit like he is now. He’s a must-roster player in all dynasty formats and managers should hold onto him and be confident in what he’s shown thus far.
As for redraft leagues, Duran is a great waiver wire add in a number of formats. He should be most useful in rotisserie leagues and head-to-head categories leagues due to his potential to contribute in both stolen bases and home runs. His second base eligibility gives him an added boost. In points leagues, he’s more of a fringe player for now. If the team goes as far as promoting him to the leadoff spot, he’d become a must-add player in all formats, but if he remains buried in the lineup, his counting stats should begin to negatively regress soon, making him hard to count on for points leagues.
Corey Seager Fantasy Outlook
So here’s the one player in today’s article who hasn’t been swinging a hot bat in June. But while we’re discussing the Rangers offense, we can’t omit the team’s new $325 million man.
Seager is slashing just .189/.228/.283 in June and he has an ugly .223/.286/.403 slash line on the year.
He’s maintained fantasy value thus far through his home run hitting as he has 12 homers already on the year, putting him on a 162-game pace of about 33 home runs – which would easily be a career-high.
Despite the fact that Seager hasn’t joined the team’s hit parade in June thus far, he remains the player I’m most confident in amongst all players featured in this article. That may not be a very bold statement as he’s of course the highest-paid member of the bunch and he was right there with Semien as the highest-drafted fantasy player of the group this spring. But he’s the coldest hitter of the bunch and fantasy managers have continued to worry about him.
The 28-year-old now has a long track record of being an elite fantasy producer. He’s a career .290 hitter with a career .854 OPS. The only thing that has slowed him down over the years has been injuries. Only once since 2017 has he managed to play in over 100 games in a season.
Seager’s underlying stats this year are mostly slightly down from previous years, but there’s nothing to be too alarmed about. He has a .291 xBA, which ranks in the 83rd percentile and suggests he’s been quite unlucky with his .223 batting average. He also has a .565 xSLG (89th percentile) and a career-best 16-degree average launch angle that’s been fueled by a career-low ground ball rate (36.1%) and a career-high fly ball rate (40.7%).
If someone is looking to abandon ship on the 2020 World Series MVP, I’d be first in line to see what it would take to get him and I’d be willing to pay full price on him as if he’d been doing exactly what we thought he would be doing by now.
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