The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 11

Welcome back to The Cut List. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now.

After a couple of weeks where we've had themed articles, we're back to our regularly scheduled programming. And this week, we'll be covering more players than ever. Read on to find out the hows and whys.

I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone. As the season progresses, there will be stronger cases to drop underperforming players. If there's ever someone you want me to take a look at, drop their name on Reddit or reach out to me on Twitter (@Baseball_Jimbo), and maybe you'll see them included next week. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) are reflective of when this piece was written.

Announcement

Before we kick things off, a quick announcement.

Regular readers and Redditors will have noticed I wasn't around last week to answer any questions. The RotoBaller team kindly stepped in for me (thank you for that) and if you follow me on Twitter, you will have seen why I wasn't around for a few days.

To make up for it, I posted on Tuesday asking for who you want to see covered. And boy oh boy, did you have a lot of players you want covering! Over 100 comments and over 40 different players were requested. Out of them, 22 players have yet to feature this season.

Normally, I cover 10 - 12 players each Sunday but as a thank you for contributing each and every week on Reddit and to make up for missing last weekend, I am covering all 22 players you asked for who have not featured in any edition of The Cut List this year.

If the name you dropped isn't here, it's because they've already been featured. So a little tip for you. If you head over to dev.rotoballer.com, type in the player name you want to check about and do a search.

At the bottom of the player page, there's a section showing all the articles that player has featured in so you can see a previous Cut List in which they were included and check out what was said about them before.

As we're covering twice as many players this week, we'll be getting to the points quickly so this doesn't turn into a copy of War And Peace. With that in mind, let's get cracking.

Worth Dropping and Replacing?

Anthony Rendon – 3B, Los Angeles Angels – 83% rostered

Initially, Rendon was going to be on the Hot Seat. Then news broke on Friday that he'll be undergoing season-ending wrist surgery. That leaves him as a drop in all redraft leagues and fingers crossed all goes week and he makes a full recovery.

Corey Knebel – SP/RP, Philadelphia Phillies – 78% rostered

Despite having a respectable 3.12 ERA, a 1.42 WHIP and 11 saves, Knebel has been removed from the closer role after giving up three runs (all unearned) on one hit and two walks while failing to record an out earlier this week.

That outing on Tuesday emphasized Knebel's problem this year in that he can't throw strikes consistently. He has a 14.0% BB% (a career-high) and a 21.9% K% (a career-low) while Tuesday's outing saw Knebel throw just four of his 16 pitches for a strike.

Given his control struggles, it was probably only a matter of time before Knebel lost the closer role and even though he has a decent ERA, it's difficult to see him winning it back any time soon. Knebel can be safely dropped in fantasy leagues.

Austin Meadows – OF, Detroit Tigers – 61% rostered

There are 265 hitters with 140+ plate appearances so far this year. Only nine of them have yet to hit a home run. Meadows is part of that nine. In 38 games, Meadows has no homers, 11 RBI, nine runs and no steals while hitting .250/.347/.328.

This is coming after a season in which Meadows hit 27 homers in 142 games for the Rays. His season is pretty symptomatic of the Tigers in general who are by far the worst offense in baseball. Their 183 runs scored is 30 runs fewer than the next placed Athletics.

Meadows did miss some time with vertigo-like symptoms and he was placed on the Covid IL earlier this week. The Tigers also called up top prospect Riley Greene this week, but that shouldn't cause Meadows to sit, given their other outfield options. Still, Meadows has not contributed anything in fantasy and is droppable in all leagues.

Frank Schwindel – 1B, Chicago Cubs – 31% rostered

Schwindel emerged as a fantasy asset last year, when hitting .326/.371/.591 with 14 homers, 43 RBI, 44 runs and two steals in 64 games. This year, in 62 games, Schwindel is hitting .237/.282/.386 with eight homers, 33 RBI, 21 runs and no stolen bases.

That all amounts to Schwindel ranking 39th on Yahoo! among first basemen. Schwindel's 20.0% K% is an increase from last year, while his 5.5% Barrel% and 34.3% HardHit% are both down considerably from last year.

Schwindel's expected numbers are slightly better than his actuals but not to the point I'd be considering him a buy-low in any trade and given his contact numbers are mostly all below average, he's someone I'd only be rostering in deeper leagues as a corner infielder.

Schwindel was placed on the IL yesterday with a back issue. It appears to be minor so if you do have an empty IL spot and can put him there, then do so. But I wouldn't hesitate dropping him to use the spot for someone else either.

Rafael Montero – RP, Houston Astros – 28% rostered

Montero has been one of the most popular "handcuffs" this season. Partly down to Ryan Pressly's struggles and health earlier this year but also because he's pitched well himself. In 25.2 IP, Montero has a 3-0 W-L record, four saves, a 2.10 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 26 Ks.

When Pressly hit the IL in April, Montero became the Astros ninth-inning guy but Pressly has looked much better since returning from injury. After allowing two earned runs in his first appearance off the IL, Pressly has since put up a 1.46 ERA in 12.1 IP, with nine saves.

Montero does still have value in holds leagues, with eight so far this season and is still next in line for saves in Houston should anything happen to Pressly. But in shallow leagues where holds aren't scored, Montero isn't worth the roster spot.

Hold For Now

Walker Buehler – SP, Los Angeles Dodgers – 94% rostered

Buehler hit the IL last weekend with a flexor strain and is set to miss 10-12 weeks. He's also undergone a procedure to remove bone spurs from his right elbow which carries a similar timescale to return. Given the expected 10-12 week timeline for his return, Buehler won't be back until late August at the earliest.

He'd been struggling all season with a 6-3 W-L record, 4.02 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 58 Ks (65.0 IP). Buehler led the league in quality starts (27) last year but only had three from his 12 starts before hitting the IL and it seems as though his arm issues have been hampering his performances since Opening Day.

If you do have the ability to put Buehler on your IL and leave him there, then do so. If he does return in late August, you could get around six starts from him and if healthy, he could be a top-10 SP from the point of his return. But any setbacks or if you don't have the luxury of a spare IL spot, I'm fine dropping him.

Andrew Benintendi – OF, Kansas City Royals – 72% rostered

As someone who was higher than most on Benintendi this offseason, his lack of power stings a little. But, there's still reason for optimism and he's been far from a total bust. On the power, Benintendi's only hit two home runs but he has an expected home run (xHR) total of 4.2. The below graphic helps demonstrate this.

Benintendi's slash line so far is .301/.365/.390 with two homers, 23 RBI, 23 runs and no stolen bases. While underwhelming, to put into context his numbers, only 11 outfielders have a batting average of .280 or better (minimum of 200 plate appearances). But, of those 11, no one has the fewer homers, RBI, runs or steals than Benintendi.

Having someone like Benintendi can offset another hitter in your lineup who offers power but is a drain on batting average, like Jorge Soler for example. And he ranks 71st among outfielders on Yahoo!, so if he has a bit more luck in the power department, he's still rosterable in all but the shallowest leagues.

Harrison Bader – OF, St. Louis Cardinals – 67% rostered

I was close to putting Bader in the "Do Not Drop" section given the season he's having. In 64 games, Bader has five homers, 20 RBI, 34 runs and 14 stolen bases while hitting .270/.312/.392. Only five players have more steals than Bader and he ranks 21st among outfielders on Yahoo!.

But Bader does only have one stolen base and one homer in June (despite hitting .308/.338/.462 this month) so I guess fantasy managers are a little concerned that Bader isn't going to build on his hot start and keep up his stolen base pace. Especially given he's only topped 14 once before, (15 steals in 2018).

But Bader ranks in the 96th percentile for sprint speed (29.4 ft/s) and the Cardinals 47 stolen bases as a team is tied for the second-most in the Majors. Even if you remove Bader's 14, they still would rank tied-15th for steals so they've been aggressive on the bases as a team. Providing the steals don't completely dry out, Bader is still rosterable in any league.

Ryan McMahon – 2B/3B, Colorado Rockies – 66% rostered

McMahon has teased breakouts before, with 24 homers in 2019 and 23 homers last year. This year, McMahon is on track to fall short of 20 homers and is likely going to end the year having had his worst season since 2018.

In 64 games, McMahon is hitting .238/.331/.374 with five homers, 33 RBI, 28 runs and no stolen bases. The runs and RBI are solid, ranking tied-26th in runs and tied-10th in RBI among second basemen. But the lack of much power, no speed and so-so batting average leave him with an overall ranking of 34th among second basemen on Yahoo!.

His eligibility at two positions is nice, but only really useful in deeper leagues and it's only those leagues where he offers enough value to warrant being rostered. McMahon's RBI total does mean he's got value in shallower leagues too while his expected stats (.254 xBA and .438 xSLG) offer hope of improvement so I'm not averse to holding him in any league for now.

Adley Rutschman – C, Baltimore Orioles – 60% rostered

The most coveted catching prospect for many years hasn't got off to the hot start fantasy managers hoped. In 23 games, Rutschman is hitting .212/.287/.341 with one homer, four RBI, 11 runs and no stolen bases. In truth, that shouldn't come as a surprise for a rookie playing at a demanding position in just 23 games.

And that's why I'm willing to be patient with Rutschman. I'm confident he'll improve as the season goes on and catcher can be such a wasteland in fantasy, very few come with his level of upside. His defense is already MLB level so it's only the bat that has a question mark around it in the short-term.

We're only talking very small samples but Rutschman has been heating up, going .333/.400/.611 this week which included the first home run (of many, I'm sure). So if you have been patient enough to stick with him or picked him up off waivers, I'm not cutting ties with him yet.

 
Rowdy Tellez – 1B, Milwaukee Brewers – 55% rostered

Tellez finally got out of Toronto last year to give himself a chance at regular playing time. And he's making the most of it. After hitting .272/.333/.481 with seven homers, 28 RBI, 22 runs and no steals in 56 games with the Brewers last year, Tellez is hitting .253/.320/.457 with 10 homers, 39 RBI, 24 runs and no steals (63 games) this year.

Tellez's splits aren't too bad but he does struggle for power against left-handed pitching (LHP) so will likely sit against them sometimes (.231/.310/.327 line against LHP and .260/.323/.497 against RHP). His expected stats are better than his actual numbers too (.277 xBA and .568 xSLG), with his xSLG ranking in the 90th percentile.

Tellez has an 11.4% Barrel% (79th percentile) while Yahoo! has him ranked 19th among first basemen so far. The power and counting stats are solid, while is batting average is decent (and should improve with better luck) so Tellez makes for a good corner infield option in all but the shallowest leagues.

Myles Straw – OF, Cleveland Guardians – 48% rostered

Remember when Myles Straw was being drafted in the first 12 rounds as he would single-handedly win you the stolen bases category? Well, he's not quite lived up to that, ranking tied-10th in stolen bases. And with a .203/.296/.251 line, no homers, seven RBI, 40 runs and 11 stolen bases, he's been something of a liability in three of the five main categories.

Somewhat inexplicably, Straw has remained the Guardians lead-off hitter for the entire season and at least has good strikeout and walk rates (14.2% K% 11.9% BB%) to somewhat justify that. But his quality of contact is pretty dismal, leaving his Statcast profile a sight to behold.

As long as Jose Ramirez stays healthy, Straw should continue to score runs and if you need steals, he's one of the best options. But you will need to factor in the drag on home runs, RBI and batting average that those runs and stolen bases come with. So he is a drop candidate in shallower leagues, depending on your roster construction.

Connor Joe – 1B/OF, Colorado Rockies – 45% rostered

Joe was a popular "sleeper" in drafts this season and has been the Rockies lead-off hitter nearly every game, seemingly a prime spot for scoring runs. And he has been solid enough, with a .268/.359/.394 slash line and five homers, 16 RBI, 33 runs and three stolen bases (62 games).

Joe's 33 runs scored is tied-51st overall so he has been productive at least in that category, while not hurting you in homers or steals. And his batting average is better than the league average so it's only in RBI where Joe hasn't helped your fantasy team.

But considering he had an ADP of ~351 and has been a useful contributor in four of the five main fantasy categories, it's hard to consider Joe as a bust. The lack of power in May has seen Joe hit the waivers but he's still someone I'd be looking to roster in all but shallow leagues.

Brandon Nimmo – OF, New York Mets – 39% rostered

Speaking of leadoff hitters, I was surprised to see Nimmo under 50% rostered, especially considering he's put up solid numbers himself. Nimmo ranks 65th among outfielders on Yahoo! with four homers, 21 RBI, 37 runs and no steals, while hitting .266/.365/.413 (59 games).

That's comparable to someone like Benintendi but the Mets lead the league in runs scored (340) so Nimmo should have no problems in piling up the runs. The one disappointment with Nimmo is the lack of steals, especially given he ranks in the 89th percentile for sprint speed, yet only has 20 stolen bases in 516 MLB games.

Like Straw, Nimmo should be a good source of runs but unlike Straw, he should also have solid RBI and a good batting average. He hits just enough home runs to not be a burden there so it's only the stolen bases that are holding him back from being a top-50 outfielder. Nimmo is someone I'm happy to stick in my lineup as a fifth-outfielder, leave there and forget about rather than dropping.

On the Hot Seat

Cody Bellinger – OF, Los Angeles Dodgers – 84% rostered

Hello Bellinger, my old friend. I can't believe it's taken until the week 11 edition to include Bellinger after he was seemingly requested every single week last year. And that was understandable after the putrid season he had. The fact it's taken until now for his inclusion tells us he's having a better year.

But it would have been hard to have a worse year than what he did in 2021. In 59 games this year, Bellinger is hitting .216/.282/.404 with eight homers, 24 RBI, 27 runs and eight stolen bases. That leaves him ranked as the 178th best hitter on Yahoo!.

He's striking out more than ever (29.8% K% is in the ninth percentile) and sometimes when I watch his at-bats, I find it remarkable he can ever make contact with his swing.

 
A look at Bellinger's Statcast profile reminds of a "Joey Gallo type" hitter. Someone who will strike out a lot, but hits the ball hard when he does make contact. The problem is, the hard contact isn't very hard and the 8.0% BB% (a career-low) is very middle-of-the-road.

In standard Yahoo! leagues, you start 14 hitters. Factor in the IL and benches, Bellinger is borderline rosterable in 10-team leagues but is far from a guaranteed starter. I spent all of last season stating this about Bellinger and whether you should drop him;

"Given we know what he can do, would you rather drop him, see him be picked up by another team and then go ham as he did in 2019. Or keep him and watch him suck on your roster, so much so that he's not startable".

But this year, Bellinger has been better and at least, a serviceable hitter. The further removed we are from 2019, anything resembling a repeat seems less possible. But if this is the new normal for Bellinger, at the very least, he's made himself useful in fantasy. But I fully understand anyone who drops him.

Do Not Drop

As the entirety of this weeks Cut List is Reddit requests, this section is for those who 100% should not be dropped. The usual Reddit requests section will return to normal next weekend so be sure to drop me the names of those you want to be covered and as always, I'll do my best to include them.

Cedric Mullins – OF, Baltimore Orioles – 97% rostered

After having a 30/30 season last year, Mullins came into 2022 as a top-40 pick in drafts. So the fact he's currently only ranked as the 52nd best hitter in fantasy according to Yahoo!, does mean he's not delivered on his ADP. But it also means he's absolutely someone who should be rostered in all leagues.

In 66 games, Mullins is hitting .249/.308/.381 with six homers, 25 RBI, 35 runs and 15 steals. How many players can match that stat line this season? Only Tommy Edman can. So while Mullins doesn't look like repeating last year's 30/30 season, there isn't any reason why he should be dropped.

Craig Kimbrel – RP, Los Angeles Dodgers – 92% rostered

Kimbrel hasn't been as effective in the closer role for the Dodgers as he was with the Cubs last year. But, he's still picked up 12 saves and is the main closer for the team with the fifth-best record in baseball. In 20.0 IP, Kimbrel has a 0-2 W-L record, 12 saves, 4.02 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 31 Ks.

If we compare Kimbrel's underlying numbers from last year (when he had a 2.26 ERA and 0.91 WHIP) to this year, we'll see that luck is playing a big part in his ERA and is why I'm not worried about Kimbrel in fantasy.

With more and more teams having committees in the ninth inning, having a regular closer who is on track for ~30 saves is fantasy gold. So as long as Kimbrel is the preferred option for saves, he should remain rostered. Even if you don't want him on your team, I guarantee almost every league will have someone in need of saves that would trade for him.

Martin Perez – SP/RP, Texas Rangers – 84% rostered

I was going to reference this as a renaissance. But given Perez has never had a season anything like what he's done so far, I guess it's more of a breakout. At age 31. In his 11th season in the Majors.

In 13 games (81.1 IP), Perez has a 4-2 W-L record, 2.10 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 65 Ks. And it isn't all down to luck. Perez has a 3.03 xERA, 3.64 xFIP and 3.75 SIERA so while it's safe to expect some regression, it's not like he should have a 4.71 ERA (his career ERA prior to 2022) and be on course for a sixth straight year of a 4.50+ ERA.

If you have Perez on your roster, enjoy the good times he's bringing. Just don't expect them to last to this extent. I'm fully on board with trading away Perez right now before the regression hits. But with 10 quality starts (tied-4th most) under his belt too, there's no reason to drop Perez at the moment.

Willy Adames – SS, Milwaukee Brewers – 84% rostered

Adames has pretty much picked up where he left off in 2021 after joining the Brewers. In 99 games with Milwaukee last year, Adames hit .285/.366/.521 with 20 homers, 58 RBI, 61 runs and four stolen bases. After 45 games this year, Adames has 13 homers, 33 RBI, 30 runs and one stolen base.

The downside is Adames is hitting .203/.283/.477. But his 28.8% K% and 9.4% BB% are both similar to last year and he's actually hitting the ball harder this year. The below shows Adames' numbers from last year compared to this.

Last year's numbers include his time with the Rays but we can see he should have better numbers and his counting stats per game are better this year. His low batting average looks down to bad luck so there's no reason to consider dropping Adames right now.

Eric Lauer – SP, Milwaukee Brewers – 82% rostered

Lauer was a first-round draft pick in 2016 and last year, seemed to be showing why the Padres selected him 25th overall. This year, he's been building on his 2021 breakout. In 12 starts (68.0 IP), Lauer has a 6-2 W-L record, 3.57 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 72 Ks.

Lauer's underlying numbers do suggest some very slight regression could be coming, with a 4.41 xERA, 3.83 xFIP and 3.73 SIERA. The xERA is a bit of an anomaly compared to the other underlying metrics so I'm not expecting his ERA to jump up over 4.00 and if his ERA remains at around 3.57, I won't be shocked in the slightest.

The Brewers bullpen has a 3.56 ERA (10th best), so will invariably be able to maintain leads (especially when Josh Hader takes the mound). And with a 25.3% K% (66th percentile), Lauer should be able to contribute across all pitching categories, making him a very rosterable starter in fantasy and a borderline top-40 SP the rest of the season.

Jeremy Pena – SS, Houston Astros – 76% rostered

Pena was placed on the IL Wednesday with a thumb issue. He's participating in baseball activities but not fielding groundballs or swinging a bat so although his timetable for a return remains unclear, it doesn't seem like something that'll sideline Pena for too long.

Providing that is the case, there's absolutely no reason to drop Pena given his performance this year. In 54 games, the rookie shortstop has nine homers, 27 RBI, 27 runs and six stolen bases while hitting .277/.333/.471. That's enough to rank him 11th among shortstops on Yahoo!.

Pena's expected numbers are near identical to his actual stats, his 9.7% Barrel% ranks in the 67th percentile, while his sprint speed ranks in the 96th percentile. Nothing about what Pena has done to this point appears to be lucky so assuming he returns fully healthy, I expect it to continue and Pena should end the year as a top-12 shortstop.

George Kirby – SP, Seattle Mariners – 51% rostered

As the Mariners top pitching prospect coming into this season, Kirby has impressed so far in the Majors. In eight starts (43.0 IP), Kirby has a 1-2 W-L record, 3.56 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 41 Ks. He has four quality starts and completed at least five innings seven times.

You can't ask for much more from a rookie who skipped Triple-A and only has 115.1 IP in the Minors (since being drafted in 2019). That does leave us to question what sort of workload we can expect this year, after the lost 2020 MiLB season and only totaling 67.2 IP last year.

Kirby has maintained his reputation as a strike-thrower with a 2.8% BB% (98th percentile). His fastball (thrown 52.6%) is what he was known for as a prospect and it has a 27.1% Whiff%. You can see why...

 
Kirby is someone I'd consider trading away but not dropping based on the fact his workload might be capped (he's totaled 67.2 IP across Double-A and the Majors this year). In fantasy, you either keep him until such time he's shut down or moves to the bullpen, or trade him (in redraft only). I expect Kirby to be a top-25 starting pitcher over the next couple of years.

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