The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Week 17

Welcome back to the Cut List. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer look. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now.

As we've entered the second half of the season, only two games will have been played since last week's Cut List so this week is slightly shorter than normal. However, there are still some interesting names to dissect and we have the usual list of names from last week's Reddit thread who you wanted to be looked into.

I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two shouldn't be a reason to push the panic button and dump someone for a random player who is on the only hot streak he'll ever have in his career. We have a whole first half of the season in the bag so we have more than enough of a sample size on most players to base our decisions on. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) are reflective of when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing

Chris Paddack - SP, San Diego Padres - 73% rostered

Paddack picked up a win on Friday night to take his record to 5-6, although it wasn't what you would call "pretty." Against the Nationals, he gave up four earned runs in five innings on five hits and a walk while striking out two. It was still a huge improvement on his last start, which was also against the Nationals and saw Paddack yield nine runs (eight earned) in just two innings on nine hits and a walk. His ERA on the year now sits at 5.49 while he has 1.34 WHIP. His 23.4% K% represents the lowest of his MLB career. Since June 1, his ERA is 7.49 (eight starts and one relief outings, totaling 39.2 IP).

Paddack does have some better underlying numbers, however. His 3.66 xFIP and 3.83 SIERA are career-bests while his 4.47 xERA at least helps support the notion he's been unlucky. That can be further seen with his .326 BABIP. The issue is, as someone with an ADP of ~110 this offseason, even if his ERA matched his xERA, he still wouldn't be providing value. The 83 strikeouts in 82.0 IP isn't bad but his K% is still only in the 45th percentile and other than his excellent 5.4% BB% (89th percentile), everything else ranks below average. His .324 xwOBA is only in the 36th percentile and still ranks better than his xSLG (.445 is 20th percentile) and xBA (.263 is 21st percentile).

Verdict - Even if Paddack's luck corrects, he's still only a league-average pitcher and in shallow leagues, can be dropped and used as a streamer. In deeper leagues, he can be held still in the hope his luck changes but even still, he's a match-up dependent option at best right now.

 

Andrew Heaney - SP, Los Angeles Angels - 54% rostered

Back in 2015, Heaney had a 3.49 ERA in 18 starts (105.2 IP) and everyone was excited that he could be an ace for the Angels for years to come. Unfortunately, injuries and poor performances put paid to that. Since 2016, Heaney has a 4.77 ERA in 450.2 IP (82 starts). A 4.77 ERA isn't dreadful but his 5.56 ERA and 1.35 WHIP this year is. There was a stretch where Heaney was a productive pitcher in fantasy this year. After giving up seven earned runs in three innings to start his season, Heaney's next 11 starts had a total 3.62 ERA (59.2 IP). Sadly, after Friday's clunker (four earned runs in four innings), Heaney's last four starts have a 9.33 ERA (18.1 IP) and he only has five quality starts on the year.

All hope is not quite lost. As with Paddack, Heaney has been unlucky as evidenced by his 4.38 xERA, 3.83 xFIP and 3.70 SIERA. His .332 BABIP might also appear harsh but considering his career BABIP is .300 and between 2019-20 it was .308, it'd need a huge drop to help take his ERA down. Heaney's 98 K's in 81.0 IP this year has eased some fantasy pain and his 28.1% K% is in the 76th percentile, while his 7.4% BB% is in the 66th percentile. But like Paddack, if his underlying numbers match his actual numbers, he'd still only be around a league-average pitcher, just with better strikeout numbers than most.

Verdict - Heaney is similar to Paddack in that he can be dropped in shallow leagues and unless he can find a run of consistency like earlier in the season, should be left on waivers. In deeper leagues, he's not even startable right now but could be held if you have the roster spot in the hope he can rediscover some form again.

 

Hold For Now

Aroldis Chapman - RP, New York Yankees - 97% rostered

Chapman went from the most dominant closer in baseball to losing his job in the space of a few days. He started the season without giving up an earned run through 18.0 IP before finally allowing one against the White Sox on May 23. As of June 9, Chapman's ERA was 0.39 (one earned run in 23.0 IP). Then came his first meltdown, four earned runs without recording an out. What lost Chapman the closer role was the spell of three straight outings in which he allowed nine earned runs in 1.1 IP from five hits and six walks. His last two outings have been scoreless innings in non-save situations as the Yankees seem committed to getting him right again.

It might not be a coincidence that the three disastrous outings that saw him lose the closer role all came immediately after the MLB clampdown on 'sticky stuff'. The fact his BB% before the enforcement was 12.8% and it's 34.6% since does suggest there's a link, although I don't think it's quite that simple. For a while, Chapman appeared to have issues with his finger and it's of my opinion that he stopped using some sort of sticky substance and the impact of that was causing a problem with his nail due to a change in grip. Chapman admitted to breaking a nail on June 20th which is the day before the MLB clampdown so it all ties in with his struggles. That was also when Chapman walked the first two batters he faced before inducing a triple-play to seal the win.

We likely won't know for another few outings if the fingernail was the main reason for the struggles, whether it was due to the lack of sticky stuff or a combination of both. Whatever it was, the fact he's managed two straight outings without allowing a run and the Yankees being keen to have Chapman as their closer should keep him rostered in fantasy. If he can put together another couple of clean outings, he should be back closing games for the beleaguered Yankees by the end of July.

Zach Eflin - SP, Philadelphia Phillies - 75% rostered

Eflin is another starting pitcher who got his second half off with a rough start. He allowed six runs (five earned) in 3.2 IP against the Marlins on Friday which saw his ERA on the year rise to 4.17. Despite having 11 quality starts this year, Eflin has a 4-7 record (18 starts) and actually entered July with just two wins from 15 starts (with a 4.20 ERA). Over the last four years, Eflin has quietly been a very solid MLB pitcher with a 4.18 ERA since 2018 in 80 starts (and five relief appearances) totaling 456.0 IP. The one slight on Eflin is his low strikeout numbers (99 K's in 105.2 IP) and his 22.4% K% is only in the 38th percentile. On the flip side of that is his 98th percentile 3.6% BB%.

Last year, Eflin had a 3.97 ERA but a .344 BABIP and 3.30 xERA, 3.23 xFIP and 3.50 SIERA. This year is a similar story as Eflin has a .327 BABIP, 3.86 xERA, 3.62 xFIP and 3.78 SIERA. Given his pitch profile (that of a control pitcher who keeps it in the zone), he'll induce more contact which will lead to a higher BABIP than most and will look like he's unluckier than he actually is. That being said, Eflin should still have a sub-4.00 ERA and more than four wins on the season. I'd keep Eflin on my roster, especially if the Phillies offense continues to score runs like they've been doing in July. In shallower leagues, you might find a pitcher with greater upside on waivers given the lack of strikeouts Eflin provides, but that's the only way I'd be looking to drop him.

 

On the Hot Seat

Randy Arozarena - OF, Tampa Bay Rays  - 96% rostered

Arozarena came to national notice during the Rays postseason run last year, breaking the record for hits (29) and homers (10) in a single postseason. He only played 23 regular-season games but still had an impressive .281/.382/.641 slash line with seven homers and four steals. Still classified as a rookie for this year, Arozarena was considered a favorite to be AL Rookie of the Year and in 83 games, has a .248/.331/.395 with ten homers, 11 steals, 52 runs and 41 RBI.

The list of players with ten or more homers and steals, 50+ runs and 40+ RBI consists of eight with Ronald Acuna Jr. (knee) being the only other outfield eligible player among them. So it's hard to say Arozarena isn't performing from a fantasy standpoint, even given his ADP of ~57 this preseason. He's not quite a five-category contributor but he's not hurting you in any one stat.

The big concern about Arozarena for this year was his inability to hit anything other than fastballs. All seven of his regular-season homers came off of fastballs last year and that has carried into this year with eight of his ten home runs being from fastballs. We can see a breakdown of his numbers for last year and this year per pitch-type.

Year	Pitch type	No. of pitches	HR	BA	SLG	wOBA	xBA	xSLG	xwOBA
2020	Fastball	173	7	.316	.895	.533	.306	.683	.533
2020	Breaking	98	0	.154	.154	.164	.158	.185	.164
2020	Offspeed	51	0	.308	.385	.327	.195	.259	.327
2021	Fastball	739	8	.314	.516	.396	.249	.447	.396
2021	Breaking	476	1	.183	.284	.249	.154	.207	.249
2021	Offspeed	228	1	.204	.296	.236	.188	.272	.236

Obviously, the lack of much sample size for last year meant it was hard to say he could only hit fastballs but the splits are so significant again this year, we can confidently say that Arozarena does struggle with anything that isn't a fastball. If we know that, MLB pitchers sure know it. The fact he hasn't homered since June 17th suggests they've also wised up to this.

Over his last 20 games, Arozarena is hitting .191/.300/.279 with one homer and one stolen base (the one homer coming 20 games ago). What has me most concerned is that one steal has come from five attempts and he's now 11-for-17 on stolen base attempts this year. Even if he doesn't hit, tallying steals is more than useful from a fantasy standpoint so being unable to do that and potentially seeing dwindling opportunities if he doesn't up his success rate could really sap his fantasy value.

Another red flag for me with Arozarena is his expected stats. He currently has a .206 xBA (fourth percentile), .334 xSLG (11th percentile) and .320 xwOBA (ninth percentile). If anything, Arozarena has been lucky to be hitting .250 and still playing as regularly as he is. With the call-ups of Franco and Brujan, the Rays could move Brandon Lowe to the outfield more often and with Kevin Kiermaier, Brett Phillips and Austin Meadows already, someone will miss out more often than not.

Arozarena doesn't have noticeable splits to be at risk of a platoon, so it's more a threat of diminished playing time if he does continue to struggle and doesn't display even mediocrity at hitting breaking balls and offspeed pitches. I have no doubt about Arozarena and the Rays fixing that long-term but doing it in-season isn't easy nor something I see happening between now and the end of the season.

I don't think Arozarena is someone you should be dropping as he has trade value and has flashed his upside along with contributing in all the counting stats. But I would probably be looking at trading him for a specific need you might have as there's a real risk he finishes up the season on the bench as much as he is in the lineup, especially if he doesn't see many fastballs during the remainder of 2021.

 

The Reddit Requests

Here are some names from the readers following last weekend's post on Reddit. If there is anyone who you want to include here on next week's Cut List, drop their names on the Reddit thread and there's a good chance they will feature.

Wander Franco - 3B/SS, Tampa Bay Rays - 78% rostered

The number one prospect in baseball got his long-awaited call-up on June 22 and of course, homered in his first game. Now with 17 games under his belt, Franco is hitting .211/.263/.352 with two homers, two steals, ten runs and seven RBI. In a show of faith to their top prospect, the Rays have hit Franco exclusively in the second and third spots of the lineup while splitting time between third base and shortstop.

Here's the deal with anyone rostering Franco in fantasy. HE'S PLAYED 17 MLB GAMES! That's it. If you've been stashing him or picked him up prior to his call-up and expected him to hit .350 with five homers in his first 17 games, then you're playing the game all wrong. Franco is the number one prospect in baseball because he has immense upside. That might take time. If you've been holding on to him for this long, don't drop him after less than a month in the Majors, especially when he's an everyday player. And here's the thing with sample sizes as small as Franco; if he goes 4-for-4 tonight, his batting average would be .253.

Eddie Rosario - OF, Cleveland Indians - 70% rostered

Even by Rosario's usual standards, his start this year was what we call "slow". By the end of May, Rosario was hitting .232/.286.348 with four homers. Since June 01st, he's hit .294/.315/.461 with three homers. Unfortunately, his season has been interrupted by an injury, when he was placed on the IL with an abdominal strain on July 5th. There's been little word out of Cleveland concerning Rosario but the expectation is he wouldn't miss much time as the strain was considered "mild".

Next week could be a realistic return time and he'll slot straight back into the middle of the lineup, where he's been all season. Scoring 29 runs in 78 games has been the big disappointment for Rosario's fantasy managers but his nine steals are a career-high and he could still end the year with 15 homers and 15 steals as well as 75 RBI so is someone I'm keeping on my IL and starting as soon as he's healthy. Definitely not looking to drop Rosario right now.

Tarik Skubal - SP, Detroit Tigers - 44% rostered

Skubal's 4.36 ERA isn't great but he's got a 3.56 ERA over his last ten starts (55.2 IP) and has 105 K's in 88.2 IP on the season. His 27.1% K% is in the 70th percentile but over his last ten starts, he has a 31.4% K%. Everything about Skubal has been better over this ten-game stretch. His 8.9% BB% is down from 11.2%, batting average is down from .263 to .231 and Barrel% is down to 8.7% from 18.6%. The young leftie looks like he's found his groove and has been one of the best starting pitchers in baseball since mid-May.

The concern is that Skubal will be limited, like what the Tigers have done with Casey Mize. But they've not announced anything specific about Skubal and an innings limit yet. I did mention last week that the Tigers could utilize a six-man rotation for the rest of the season (especially when Spencer Turnbull and Matt Boyd return from the IL), leaving around 11 starts for Skubal. If he averages five innings per start, that takes his total innings to 143.2 which seems about where they'd like Skubal to be at season's end. There should be enough innings for Skubal to continue providing fantasy value and he's worthwhile holding at least until we hear otherwise.

Vidal Brujan - 2B, Tampa Bay Rays - 34% rostered

Following Franco's call-up, the Rays promoted Brujan, the next of their infield super prospects. Unlike Franco, Brujan hasn't seen much game time with just 12 plates appearances in six games since his promotion on July 7. Brujan lacks the power potential of Franco, although scouts do expect that to develop in time, but very few prospects have the speed upside of Brujan. He stole 166 bases in 448 Minor League games, including 15 in 49 Triple-A games this year. He stole a base in his MLB debut as well as scoring a run and driving one in, the only counting stats he has so far.

But it's easy to forget that Brujan only debuted in Triple-A this season and had just 55 Double-A games under his belt prior to that so is very much still raw. It's unlikely the Rays will continue to keep Brujan with the Major League team if they don't intend to play him regularly so I expect things to become clearer for Brujan's immediate future in the next week. As long as he's with the Rays, he's worth rostering in re-draft leagues for the speed upside alone. It wouldn't be a shock if the Rays made a trade before the deadline to free up more playing time for Brujan so stay patient for the time being if you're rostering him.

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