RADIO
We made it! The final week of the regular season is upon us and hopefully, most of you are either competing for a fantasy title or have secured one already. Those of you still battling it out have one last chance for glory so we'll continue to look at some players droppable and some on the cusp that may just be worth holding on to. Because it's the final week of the season, we'll be taking a bit of a whistle-stop tour to see some players' schedules and potentials as season-long numbers aren't as relevant for decision making over the final 6-7 games of the season,
Obviously, things are very fluid for the final week. Teams clinching a playoff spot will seek to rest starters, although gone are the days they can rest all starting hitters due to the 28-man rosters now in place. The slightest niggle will see starting pitchers skipped and hitters benched, while some teams will look to realign their rotation with the playoffs in mind. As a consequence, we all need to be flexible with decision making and in leagues allowing daily moves, monitor starting lineups and starting pitchers up until the first pitch.
In weekly roster move leagues, you will need to hedge and make educated guesses as to how things will pan out also. It's also the time of year where dropping a productive player in a certain category is also justifiable if you can benefit in another category you can score more roto points in. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) are reflective of when this piece was written.
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Worth Dropping and Replacing
Yu Darvish - SP, San Diego Padres - 96% rostered
It's been a real up and down season for Darvish. He's entering the final week of the season with an 8-10 record and a 4.21 ERA over 162.1 IP. He has struck out 193 batters but his 29.2% K% is the lowest he's had since 2018. He's also had two short IL stints and after returning in late August from a back injury, he's been really dreadful.
Since August 26, his first start off of the IL, Darvish has made six starts (31.0 IP) and has a 6.39 ERA. He did manage to throw seven shutout innings against the Cardinals and had a six-inning, one-run outing against the Angels in that span. But the other four outings saw Darvish allow eight, five and four (twice) runs over just 18 innings.
If we go back further to the beginning of July, Darvish has an ERA of 6.78 from 13 starts (66.1 IP) so he has been significantly worse in the second half of the season (2.44 ERA pre-July). He's lined up to face the Dodgers and Giants in the final week. With the Padres playoff hopes over, if there is any slight injury lingering with Darvish, then the Padres will likely skip a start. Even if he makes his second one of the week, it could be an abbreviated one with nothing on the line.
There are too many possible outcomes that will make Darvish miss the second start of the week and in truth, he's been so disappointing for so long this season, do you really want to trust him against the Dodgers and Giants anyway? Maybe you chance it if you're chasing, but he could end any hopes you have of catching up with those above you or putting you on the back foot of any head-t0-head match.
Dansby Swanson, SS, Atlanta Braves - 84% rostered
The Braves will be looking to close out another NL East title, although it looks like the Phillies will be pushing them all the way. I still expect the Braves to clinch the division and they would be locked in as the No. 3 seed in the National League if they do. So assuming they do clinch before the final day, expect starters to sit for a game, which could include Swanson.
And Swanson has been having a pretty bad September so far. He's hitting just .137/.224/.233 this month with eight runs, eight RBI and two homers. Prior to this weekend's series with the Padres, Swanson's last homer came on September 1. He's scored three runs and has two RBI in the first two games this weekend, salvaging his month a bit. He's slipped down to seventh and eighth in the batting order too, limiting his potential production.
Of the 366 players who have had 20+ plate appearances in September, only 24 of them have a worse wRC+ than Swanson's 24. In the final week of the season, the Braves are scheduled to face Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Kyle Gibson, Carlos Carrasco and Marcus Stroman.
Nola hasn't been very good, Gibson has been disappointing since joining the Phillies and Carrasco has struggled since returning from his lengthy layoff. But on paper, that's one of the trickiest final week schedules for a right-hand hitter. Considering how cold Swanson has been for most of this month, he isn't someone I'd want to be relying on in the final week. If you're not starting him, is it worth keeping him rostered?
John Means - SP, Baltimore Orioles - 83% rostered
For most of 2021, Means has been great. He has a no-hitter in the books and is going into the final week of the season with a 3.25 ERA from 24 starts (138.2 IP) and a 6-7 record. Not bad given the Orioles have the joint worst record in baseball. He did miss four weeks with a shoulder strain and hasn't been as effective since his return in July, with a 4.26 ERA in 12 starts (67.2 IP).
His one start in the final week of the season is lined up to be his first time facing the Blue Jays this year. Against left-handed pitching (LHP) this year, Toronto ranks tied-third in wRC+ (114), third in wOBA (.342) and third in ISO (.194). They've been just as dominant against LHP in September, ranking third in wRC+ (144), second in wOBA (.385) and third in ISO (.257).
You'll need to have a very good reason to start Means, especially given the low strikeouts and unlikeliness of him picking up a win. If you're not going to start him, is it worth keeping him rostered? It might make more sense to drop him for someone you will start on your team.
Trent Grisham, OF, San Diego Padres - 68% rostered
It's been a bit of a disappointing season for Grisham, with a .240/.328/.414 line, 15 homers, 59 runs, 59 RBI and 11 steals. Following Fernando Tatis Jr.'s moved to the outfield, he found playing time a little more difficult to come by and like the Padres, hasn't been finishing the season strongly.
In September, Grisham has a .188/.244/.333 line with two homers, 10 runs and seven RBI. He's also found himself moved from leadoff duties to hitting in the bottom third of the lineup in the last 10 days. In September, 11 Padres players have had at least 20 plate appearances. Only Victor Caratini and Jurickson Profar have a lower wRC+ than Grisham's 52.
In the final week of the season, the Padres are due to face Walker Buehler, Max Scherzer, Kevin Gausman and Logan Webb. Among all pitchers with at least 130 IP, these four all rank inside the top 12 in ERA. Grisham is likely to face all of them given he's a leftie but that might not actually help your fantasy teams.
For reference, I'd also consider Wil Myers droppable. He's been marginally better than Grisham and with Tatis Jr. moving back to shortstop, the outfield is a bit less crowded. But I wouldn't have any confidence in him facing those starting pitchers and could also be wasting a roster spot during the final week.
The only Padres I'd consider must starts next week are Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado (with Adam Frazier startable if you're in need of steals). All others are dependent on who else you have on your rosters and who is available on your waivers.
David Fletcher, 2B/3B/SS/OF, Los Angeles Angels - 62% rostered
Fletcher has salvaged his season somewhat with 15 steals and 72 runs scored. But his .265/.300/.323 line is a disappointment and his September is also shaping up to be the worst single month of his career. So far this month, Fletcher is hitting .119/.178/.131 with four runs, three RBI and two stolen bases.
That's equated to a -14 wRC+ for September among 170 qualified hitters (minimum of 67 plate appearances), which is the worst in MLB and the only player to have a negative wRC+. His 71 wRC+ ranks as second-worst in MLB this season (among qualified hitters) as he's shown very little power all season and has a career-low 4.5% BB%.
Fletcher has found himself dropped back down the batting order over the last few days, no longer leading off and has hit ninth in the last three games. He's gone 1-for-19 this week and is hitless since Monday. Unless you're in dire need of steals, Fletcher is a safe drop as even runs will be fewer and farther between if he continues to hit at the bottom of the Angels lineup.
Adrian Houser - SP/RP, Milwaukee Brewers - 44% rostered
Houser has been a solid part of the Brewers' awesome rotation, with a 3.34 ERA from 137.1 IP (25 starts and 2 relief appearances). He lacks strikeouts with just 104 and his 17.9% K% is in the 12th percentile, while his 10.7% BB% is in the 20th percentile. He does manage to limit hard contact but his 4.14 xERA, 4.31 xFIP and 4.71 SIERA suggest he's had his fair share of good fortune too.
Assuming the Brewers continue with their six-man rotation, Houser is lined up to face the Cardinals on Thursday. With the Brewers set in as the No. 2 seed in the National League, they may tweak their rotation with the playoffs in mind but the alternative will be facing the Dodgers over the final weekend.
The Cardinals have been the MLB's hottest team over the last fortnight but did find runs hard to come by when they faced Houser earlier this week. Houser restricted them to one run over five innings, off of five hits and two walks. He started the month with a complete game shut out against the Cardinals so has certainly had their number, so to speak.
Other than Houser, the Cardinals have been dominating LHP in September and rank first in wRC+ (189), wOBA (.462) and ISO (.399). I'm also a little concerned about a starting pitcher facing the same team twice in a short period and this will be the third start against the Cardinals in a month. Even with how well he's fared against them, Houser lacks the strikeout upside so isn't a sure-fire start in the final week and is dependent on what you need in the final week.
James Kaprielian - SP/RP, Oakland Athletics - 37% rostered
Kaprielian was moved to the bullpen in part to limit workload and also due to his recent struggles. Prior to last weekend's announcement, Kaprielian had a 5.73 ERA since August 01st over seven starts (33.0 IP). He was due to be replaced in the rotation by Daulton Jefferies, who promptly hit the IL and left Kaprielian to make one more start.
And Kaprielian made the most of it, throwing six shutout innings against the Angels, allowing just two hits and striking out five to pick up his eighth win of the year. Chris Bassitt then made his return to the mound on Thursday and after tossing three scoreless innings against the Mariners, Kaprielian was tasked with maintaining the Athletics four-run lead.
In relief, he allowed three earned runs on three hits over two innings but was still in line for the win before Jake Diekman coughed up what would prove to be the winning runs. While Kaprielian could pick up a win or two if he piggybacks Bassitt or pitches the middle innings over the last week of the season, he's struggled in recent times and the bullpen role does take away what little value Kaprielian had left in fantasy.
Josiah Gray - SP, Washington Nationals - 20% rostered
Gray is scheduled for a two-start week to end the season, but he couldn't have picked much worse opponents to finish his rookie campaign against. Gray is due to start the week at Coors Field and then pitch the final regular-season game against the Red Sox.
After a promising start to Gray's career with the Nationals (2.89 ERA in five starts, 28.0 IP), things have gone south recently. His last five starts have totaled 23.1 IP and has seen Gray allow 24 earned runs (9.26 ERA). We all know what Coors Field does to pitchers but if we needed reminding, after allowing five earned runs over his first 58 innings with the Dodgers, Scherzer allowed five earned runs over five innings at Coors Field on Thursday.
The AL Wildcard race could go down to game 162 and still might not be decided so I expect Boston to have a full-strength lineup when they face Gray. And they've been one of the best offenses against RHP in September. They rank third in wRC+ (128), third in wOBA (.365) and fourth in ISO (.230).
Unless there's a change in circumstance, you'll need to be pretty desperate to start Gray at Coors and then again against Boston. If you have daily roster moves, you could sit him against the Rockies and see if the Red Sox are still in need of a win on the final day, possibly making Gray a viable streaming option next weekend. But even then, you'll need to be pretty desperate to do so.
Kyle Freeland - SP, Colorado Rockies - 16% rostered
On the subject of Coors Field, Freeland is scheduled to make one more start this season, at home to the Nationals. It should come as no surprise that Freeland has significantly better numbers on the road than at home. His home ERA is 5.26, while on the road it's 3.84.
Freeland did manage a quality start last time out at home to the Dodgers, allowing three earned runs over six innings (eight hits and a walk). You don't need to look back much farther to see what can happen when Freeland pitches at home, allowing seven earned runs in 4.1 IP one nine hits and three walks against the Giants.
The Nationals may seem like a soft opponent but they do have a 111 wRC+ (tied-11th), .329 wOBA (tied-10th) and .753 OPS (12th) against LHP in September so have been one of the better offenses against lefties this month. Like others on this list, Freeland lacks the strikeouts to have much upside so is a very risky play this week and as a result, doesn't warrant being rostered in most leagues.
The Reddit Requests
Here are some names from the readers following last weekend's post on Reddit. Thank you to everyone who was commented and put forward names they wanted to include in The Cut List this season.
Eloy Jimenez - OF, Chicago White Sox - 78% rostered
Jimenez has struggled in September, hitting just .191/.257/.294 with one homer, four runs and three RBI this month. His only homer came on Thursday and he has recorded a hit in eight of his last ten games, four doubles along with the homer, so has been showing some signs of life over the last few days.
The White Sox are locked in as no.3 seeds in the American League and are due to face the Tigers (four games) and Reds (two games) over the final week so has an ok schedule but not as appealing as you might think. There's every chance Jimenez only plays four or five games in the final week as Tony La Russa continues to rest and rotate his batting lineup.
In shallower leagues, I'm fine with you dropping Jimenez if you need something other than power and have solid outfielders. In daily roster move leagues, Jimenez is a much safer option to keep on your rosters but given the uncertainty about how the White Sox might rotate their starters over the final week with no playoff implications on the line, in deeper weekly roster move leagues, Jimenez is a potential drop candidate.
Raimel Tapia - OF, Colorado Rockies - 42% rostered
Tapia had seen his playing time diminish significantly in September following his activation from the IL which saw him miss most of August. Last weekend's series at Washington saw Tapia make just two pinch-hit appearances despite the Nationals starting two RHP in the series. Yesterday marked his fourth straight start as the leadoff hitter and is 5-for-19 in that span so he appears to be back in favor.
He homered on Thursday night, his sixth of the season and first since May 21st. Tapia's fantasy value lies in his speed but stolen bases haven't been very frequent either and he's just 1-for-3 in steals since his return from the IL. The Rockies do have three home games to start the week against the Nationals and the same three starting pitchers as their last series (Josiah Gray, Patrick Corbin and Paolo Espino).
Given the fluidity of the Rockies lineups, banking on Tapia starting every game (or even the majority) next week isn't something I'd be doing. Tapia does appear to be the preferred leadoff option again and in daily roster moves, he's worth rostering and starting when he does play. In weekly roster move leagues, there are likely safer options but Tapia is still worth starting as the upside of three home games as the Rockies leadoff hitter alone makes it worth the risk.
So that's it. Before I sign off, I just want to thank everyone who has read The Cut List this season, everyone who has commented and everyone who offered up names on Reddit. I've genuinely enjoyed interacting with you all and am humbled by all of you who take time out of your day to read what I write. As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (@Baseball_Jimbo) if you have any questions and I'll be providing offseason content on RotoBaller so keep your eyes peeled for that too.
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