RADIO
A new NFL week begins and we are treated to a great game as the Green Bay Packers head west to take on the San Francisco 49ers. This game has an under/over of 51 with the Packers being favored by 2.5 points.
In this article, I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Thursday Night Football slate on November 5th (Week 9). These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
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DFS Quarterbacks
The safest and easiest option at the quarterback position is locking in Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has been his usual self this season as he has done well in most games and generates fantasy points at a high level. He is averaging over 23 DK points per game and has thrown for over 1,900 yards and 20 passing touchdowns while only throwing two interceptions in a seven-game span. Defenses have had trouble stopping Rodgers and this passing attack and with his receiving group looking healthy and ready to go, the Niners have a tough matchup ahead. The Niners passing defense has actually done well this season as they only allow 216 passing yards per game which is fourth in the league but when factoring in how this game could go, the Packers offense could see plenty of time on the field which means plenty of opportunities for Rodgers and company.
Jimmy Garoppolo was placed on the IR with a high ankle sprain which could lead to him not playing against in 2020. The reigns to the offense will be handed over to Nick Mullens who will get tasked with leading this offense against the Green Bay Packers on Thursday night. Mullens has seen plenty of action already this season as he has played in four games already this season. In those four games, he has completed over 70% of his passes while throwing for 852 yards and four touchdown passes and only throwing three interceptions. Mullens has flashed upside in this offense before but given the fact that his receiving group will be depleted and they will be rolling out a whole new group of receivers, this could really limit the upside for Mullens.
Analysis: Rodgers is a lock for both cash games and tournament lineups while Mullens is a risky play on this slate. Playing them both in tournaments could be a viable option from a roster construction standpoint but Mullens could have a tough night based on the receivers he is working with for this game.
DFS Running Backs
This looks to be one of the messier running back situations when it comes to both sides of this game. The Niners will be missing several running backs so they will rely on the tandem of JaMycal Hasty and Jerick McKinnon to carry the rock for the duration of the game. Hasty has seen an uptick in carries over the week and looks to be the early-down back in this San Fran offense. McKinnon is the complimentary back that is used more in passing situations and could be the reliable check down target for Mullens should the Niners get down early and play from behind. The Packers have struggled against opposing running backs all season long and are allowing 119 rushing yards per game which rank 15th in the league. While this could be a challenging game overall for San Fran, the way they can stay in it is by handing the ball off to Hasty and McKinnon and keep the Packers offense over on the sideline for as long as possible.
The Packers are dealing with a little bit of a depth issue as well when it comes to their running back room. Aaron Jones is listed as questionable for tonight's game and with Jamaal Williams and A.J. Dillon already labeled out, they might have to lean on Tyler Ervin and Dexter Williams for success on the ground. If Jones is active and good to go, he would be a lock-in all formats but if he is unable to go, this is where this situation gets tricky. Ervin has seen more touches on the season and would handle the heavier workload while Williams would be the change-of-pace back but should Jones be active, Ervin could be the backup back spells Jones for some touches. This will be a situation to monitor as we get closer to game time. The matchup itself against the Niners is as tough as it gets as they are a top 10 team against the run and really limit opposing running backs when it comes to their overall production.
Analysis: Jones is a lock for all formats should he be good to go regardless of the tough matchup. Hasty and McKinnon could be heavily relied on and could serve as great options in all formats as they should see plenty of action. If Jones is out, Ervin would be the main Packers running back to focus on for cash games but would still be a risky play since we are trying to predict carries between two players that we never thought would see the field this season.
DFS Wide Receivers
It's not a secret that this Packers passing offense runs through and revolves around Davante Adams. Adams is a top receiver in this league and sees the most attention from Rodgers in this Packers offense. He holds a 22.2% team target share and has seen 38 targets over the last three games played. Since returning from injury, he has hauled in seven touchdowns while also grabbing 26 total receptions which is insane considering the rest of the Packers team hauled in 39 receptions during that three-game span. Outside of Adams, the Packers receiving group is somewhat thin as they rely on Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Allen Lazard the most outside of Adams. Both receivers have the big-play ability but with how concentrated this offense is around the backs and Adams, it is hard to truly rely on them in cash games.
The 49ers are also a tad thin at the receiver position as Deebo Samuel was out against the Seahawks and there is a good chance he misses the Thursday night matchup against the Packers. Brandon Aiyuk had a very strong showing against Seattle as he recorded eight catches on 11 total targets for 91 yards and a receiving touchdown. He has been a very consistent option for the 49ers offense and with Samuel possibly out again, he should see solid volume yet again. Kendrick Bourne was another beneficiary with Samuel being out as he too hauled in eight catches on 10 targets for 81 receiving yards and remains to be the second wide receiver option in this Niners offense while Samuel is absent. The slot role was filled by Trent Taylor who has proven to be a valuable slot asset for San Fran and while he doesn't see a heavy target share, he hauled in three catches on four targets for 32 yards against the Seahawks.
UPDATE: The Niners receiving group got even thinner as they will be without Aiyuk, Bourne, and Samuel as they are going on the reserve/COVID-19 list. Bourne was the Niner receiver that tested positive and both Aiyuk and Samuel were within close contact of him hence why they were also placed on the COVID-19 list. Trent Taylor could see a big bump in targets and the Niners will elevate Richie James, Kevin White, River Cracraft, and Chris Finke from the practice squad. James and White would be the first ones to look at in large tournaments but outside of Taylor, these receivers would be hard to trust at this point in time.
Analysis: Adams is the safest receiving option in this game and could be used in all formats while also being considered for the captain role. Taylor is the best option for the Niners but it gets very thin after him. MVS and Lazard could also be used in cash game lineups but they obviously carry a lower floor while the rest of the Niners group should be used in big-field tournaments.
DFS Tight Ends
The tight end position could be a great spot to target in this matchup. Robert Tonyan Jr. has been a great asset to this Packers passing attack as he is second on the team in touchdown receptions (5) and holds an 85.2% catch rate on the season as he has hauled in 23 out of 27 passes thrown his way. Tonyan holds the second-most receptions on the team and looks to have carved out a solid role in this Green Bay offensive system. Jace Sternberger and Marcedes Lewis are behind Tonyan on the depth chart and would look to fill in should an injury occur but outside of that, they do not seem to be a factor in this offense outside of an occasional target here and there.
On the other side of this game, news broke earlier this week that George Kittle has a small fracture in his foot and looks to be out for eight weeks which really hinders the upside of this Niners offense. Jordan Reed could be returning from Injured Reserved this week which would help fill a gaping hole in the tight end position. When Kittle was out earlier this year, Reed saw 14 targets in a two-game span and was able to haul in nine of those for catches. We all know Reed has playmaking abilities but his health and availability is always shaky seeing he just can't stay healthy. Backing up Reed looks to be Ross Dwelley who saw four targets in the passing game once Kittle left the game this past Sunday. He would be next in line should Reed not be able to go this week and would make him a big-time value play on this slate.
Analysis: With Kittle being out, it opens up value for the San Fran tight end spot. It will be Ross Dwelley unless Jordan Reed is activated and good to go coming off of IR. Tonyan is involved in the Green Bay offense and is a reliable target for Rodgers so both he and the starting San Fran tight end are viable in all formats.
DFS Defense/Special Teams
With the Niners offense missing so many key pieces, it makes the Packers Defense look like a great play all around on this slate. San Fran will be without their starting quarterback, running back, left tackle, starting tight end, and top three receivers so it just makes it too easy to fall in love with the Packers defense. Mullens has almost any many interceptions as he does have touchdowns and with not many reps with his receiving group, it could lead to several turnovers on the night. From a kicking standpoint, the Packers offense should be able to move the ball and generate points while also winning the field position battle which means Mason Crosby could be in play in all formats. For San Fran, it seems as if they might struggle when it comes to moving the ball so they might need to rely on Gould to make a few kicks in hopes it generates some points for them.
Analysis: The Green Bay defense is in a prime spot tonight and could be used in both cash games and tournaments. Crosby is the safer kicking option while Gould could be more of a tournament play (very risky play).
Good luck, RotoBallers, and remember to mix it up and don't be afraid to be different in these large field GPPs!
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