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Happy Thursday, RotoBallers! Week four is here already! Tonight we've got an interesting matchup between the last two first-overall picks, as Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars head to Cincinnati to take on Joe Burrow and the Bengals. Vegas has the Bengals as a -7.5 favorite, a number the Jags covered last week against Arizona at home. The total is set at 46.5, as Vegas is expecting a decently high-scoring game here. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket.
In this article I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Thursday Night Football slate on September 30th. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts any time you'd like. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it!
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DFS Captains/MVPs
Joe Mixon ($16,500 DK, $14,000 FD)
Joe Mixon for his entire career has confused season-long and daily fantasy players alike. He seems like your quintessential "boom or bust" player, despite having enough volume to reach median production more often than not. This seems like a game where he can really thrive, as an absolutely brutal DVOA against the rush at 39.5%. Mixon has played 78.95% of snaps for Cincy this season, logging 83.75% of the attempts, including 75% in the red zone and 100% within the five. Vegas has his anytime TD prop at -170, which is absurd, but warranted. I'll have about 30-40% of all my lineups with Mixon in the captain spot, in the event the Bengals control this game on the ground as the DVOA matchup predicts.
Joe Burrow ($17,400 DK, $15,000 FD)
On the other hand, let's assume the Jaguars put up a decent fight or the Bengals for whatever reason can't get the ground game going. That leads us to Joe Burrow, who takes on Trevor Lawrence for the first time since the 2020 National Championship, where his LSU Tigers defeated Lawrence's Clemson Tigers. Burrow has thrown seven touchdowns to four picks thus far on the season, with 640 yards and a 105.42 passer rating. Jacksonville does struggle against the pass, just not as much as the run with a DVOA of 9.1% against the pass. Despite the absence of WR Tee Higgins, we can expect Burrow to put some numbers up with Tyler Boyd and former LSU teammate Ja'Marr Chase.
Other Captain/MVP Plays: Ja'Marr Chase, Trevor Lawrence
DFS Flex Plays
Ja'Marr Chase ($10,200 DK, $12,500 FD)
Speaking of Ja'Marr Chase, the rookie has come along well since taking over the lead receiving role on the Bengals. His chemistry with Burrow is documented and has shown, as he has 11 receptions for 220 yards with four touchdowns, scoring at least one in each game thus far. With the Jaguars shipping CJ Henderson to Carolina for Dan Arnold and picks and Tre Herndon out for tomorrow's game, the Jags will likely be starting Tyson Campbell and Shaquill Griffin. This creates a solid matchup for Chase on top of the fact that the Jaguars already have a DVOA of 32.6% against '#1 WRs'.
Marvin Jones ($8,600 DK, $11,500 FD)
It looks like Marvin Jones has taken over the number one receiving role on the Jaguars. He has seen 28 targets across the first three weeks, catching 17 of 21 for 194 yards and two scores. I was personally higher on DJ Chark, but it appears that Trevor Lawrence is relying on the veteran to get the job done, which he has. Jones should have the best matchup on the field for the Jags, with Cincinnati having a -0.5% DVOA against '#1 WRs'.
DJ Chark ($7,200 DK, $10,500 FD)
When I talked about Joe Mixon being the quintessential "boom-or-bust" player despite his volume, I could say the same about DJ Chark. He has been a bit unlucky this year so far, catching just seven of his 22 targets for 154 yards and two touchdowns. We can expect (and hope) the target numbers to stay around where they've been (12, 4, 6 in weeks 1-3, respectively). He has an average matchup in this one, with the Bengals coming in with a -5.9% DVOA against '#2 WRs'. With Cincy having a DVOA of -82.4% against 'Slot/Other WRs' and -34.5% against TEs, I think the passing game will be funneled towards Jones and Chark.
Other Flex Plays: James Robinson, Trevor Lawrence
DFS Value Plays
Bengals D/ST ($5,600 DK, N/A FD)
Because I think points on the offensive side will be relatively consolidated, we look to the Bengals' defense. They've been pretty good so far this season, with a DVOA of -22.7%. They've sacked quarterbacks ten times through the first three weeks while logging three picks and a fumble recovery. Jacksonville's offense has a brutal offensive DVOA of -29.9%, and Cincy shouldn't have any trouble intercepting passes, as Lawrence has thrown at least two in each game this season.
C.J. Uzomah ($4,000 DK, $7,500 FD)
If we're digging for value, we can look at CJ Uzomah as an option. He has only seen five targets thus far this year, catching four of them for 39 yards, despite playing 72.51% of snaps. This is a matchup reach only, as the Jaguars have a DVOA of 17.2% against TEs this season. We can hope for something like 3 for 39 from Uzomah, with a vulture TD from the likes of Ja'Marr Chase or Joe Mixon.
Have a good Thursday everyone, see you soon!
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