Two-Start Pitcher Streamers: Week 10

3 years ago by Michael Grennell

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Well no no-hitters this week. What a disappointment for fans of 27 of the 30 teams in baseball. For Indians, Rangers and Mariners fans though, they probably feel like it was Christmas in May. (Author's Note: I promise this will be the last time I make a no-hitter joke at your guys' expense this season. I mean, probably.)

Looking at Week 8's column, I made some risky picks and they didn't quite pan out as well as I had hoped they would. But Casey Mize was the undisputed winner from that column after going 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 13 strikeouts in 14 innings. As for Week 9, the big disappointment so far is Cole Irvin, who I thought would have a good outing against Seattle. The leader of the pack however is the guy I pegged as the riskiest play in Week 9 — Austin Gomber. In his start against the Mets, Gomber allowed two runs and struck out eight over eight innings of work to earn the win and improve to 3-4 on the year.

This week, we've got some promising rookies who are set to be solid two-start streamers. Let's check them out.

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Week 10 Streamers — Under 50% Rostered

Shane McClanahan, TBR - 41% rostered

Probable Opponents: @ NYY, @ TEX

After being limited to four innings in each of his first three starts, McClanahan is starting to look like a viable streaming option after back-to-back outings of at least five innings. Despite the innings limit early on, McClanahan has looked solid with a 28.6 percent strikeout rate over 27 1/3 innings, and while he currently sports a 4.03 ERA, his 3.55 xERA suggests he's been slightly unlucky early on.

He'll open up the week against a Yankees squad that is tied for the ninth-worst average in the Majors at .231, and owns the 11th-highest strikeout rate at 24.5 percent. While those numbers seem promising for McClanahan, he'll have to deal with being on the wrong side of New York's batting splits, as the Yankees are hitting better against left-handers (.244/.309/.390) than right-handers (.225/.325/.374). They are, however, hitting slightly worse at home (.228/.324/.360) than on the road (.234/.316/.399), so that could play in McClanahan's favor.

It's his second start of the week that should play much more in his favor. Texas has the eighth-highest strikeout rate in the Majors at 26 percent, as well as the 12th-worst OPS at .695. There won't be much benefit from righty-lefty splits, as the Rangers are about even in their performance against left-handers (.242/.302/.389) and right-handers (.231/.310/.388). But they are hitting worse at home this year (.229/.294/.380) than on the road (.241/.320/.397). And on top of that, they have been slumping over their last 15 games, slashing .204/.283/.354 while averaging 3.8 runs per game.

McClanahan is a bit of a risky play as he is still somewhat of an unknown, and this will also be his first time facing either team. That being said, he should put up some nice strikeout numbers this week — especially going against the Rangers.

James Kaprielian, OAK - 30% rostered

Probable Opponents: @ SEA, @ COL

He's made just three starts so far this year, but each time out Kaprielian has continued to look solid on the mound. He's thrown at least five innings and allowed two or fewer runs each time out, and in his latest start against Seattle, he threw seven shutout innings while striking out four. Over 17 2/3 innings this year, Kaprielian is 2-0 with a 1.53 ERA and a 27.1 percent strikeout rate. The best part is that Kaprielian's early success appears to be mostly legitimate based on his Statcast metrics, as he owns a 2.86 xERA, .188 xBA and .271 xwOBA — all three of which rank in the 84th percentile or higher.

So yeah, I mentioned he tossed seven scoreless innings against Seattle his last time out? Well he'll get a rematch with them right away to start off Week 10. Seattle has the sixth-highest strikeout rate in the Majors at 26.3 percent and are dead-last in batting average (.203) and on-base percentage (.281). And while they are hitting ever so slightly better against right-handers this year, Kaprielian will benefit from pitching on the road in Seattle as the Mariners have hit worse at home (.178/.271/.322) than on the road (.222/.288/.387).

After that, he'll close out the week on the road at Colorado, where he'll face a Rockies team that has been somewhat of a middle-of-the-pack offense this season with a .240 average, .700 OPS and 23.8 percent strikeout rate. Now he will be at a slight disadvantage pitching at Coors Field, as unsurprisingly the Rockies are hitting better at home (.267/.329/.465) than on the road (.203/.271/.303). But on the other hand, not only are the Rockies hitting worse against right-handers (.225/.292/.371) than they are against left-handers (.276/.337/.456), they are also striking out at a slightly higher rate against right-handers (24.1% vs 23.7%).

Even with his start at Coors Field, I like Kaprielian's potential this week. I'm calling him the top pitcher to target in any format off of this week's list. And if he pitches as well as I think he will, you might want to consider rostering him full-time going forward from Week 10.

Week 10 Streamers — Under 25% Rostered

Mike Minor, KCR - 20% rostered

Probable Opponents: vs PIT, vs MIN

If you're looking for a guy with strikeout potential and are willing to risk a hit to ERA, Minor is the guy for you in Week 10. He's struck out at least seven in each of his last four starts, as he has 31 strikeouts over his last 23 innings of work. That comes at a price however, as he has posted a 4.30 ERA over that span. But if you're willing to take that risk, he has a nice matchup to open Week 10 when he takes on a Pirates squad that is slashing .230/.286/.322 over their last seven games. Along with that he'll benefit from the Pirates' struggles against left-handers this season, as they are slashing .212/.294/.339 with a 23.8 percent strikeout rate against southpaws. He'll have a tougher matchup against Minnesota, which ranks top-10 in the majors with a .242 average and .424 slugging percentage, but they are striking out at a slightly higher clip against left-handers (24.7%) than against right-handers (22.7%). Like I said, if you're looking for strikeouts and aren't worried about a hit to the other categories then Minor is the guy to target, although you should look to target the other guys on this list first before looking at Minor.

Dane Dunning, TEX - 18% rostered

Probable Opponents: @ COL, vs TBR

Despite coming off his worst start of the season, Dunning looks to be a solid streaming option against the Rockies and Rays. He has a nice 25.4 percent strikeout rate over 47 1/3 innings this season, and he's going up against a pair of teams that own two of the highest strikeout rates in the Majors. He'll open the week against the Rockies, where he'll benefit from the same righty-lefty splits that Kaprielian will have in addition to Colorado tying for 12th in the majors with a 23.8 percent strikeout rate. When he takes on the Rays however, he'll be on the wrong side of those splits as the Rays are hitting better against right-handers (.236/.329/.408) than against left-handers (.222/.295/.382). But they also have the third-highest strikeout rate in the majors at 27.2 percent. Dunning will be a better version of Minor in Week 10, as I see him putting up similar strikeout totals to Minor, but he should have a better ERA and WHIP this week.

Merrill Kelly, ARI - 9% rostered

Probable Opponents: vs NYM, @ MIL

While Dunning is coming off his worst start of the year, Kelly on the other hand is coming off a couple of his best starts of the season. After striking out 12 over seven innings on May 20, Kelly followed that up with his third straight quality start in which he struck out six over six innings of work against the Giants. The matchups don't get much better than his first start in Week 10, where he'll face an essentially Triple-A lineup with the banged up Mets. Not only are the Mets struggling and limping along in general, they are also hitting worse against right-handers (.226/.305/.339) than against lefties (.224/.317/.357). And then he follows that up with a trip to Milwaukee, where he'll face a Brewers squad that has the second-worst average (.209), third-worst OPS (.648) and the fourth-highest strikeout rate in the majors at 26.7 percent. As if that wasn't good enough, the Brewers are slashing .204/.285/.346 against right-handed pitching this year. I'm buying in on Kelly this week, and I think he'll be the best option in the "under-25%" category. Grab him off the waiver-wire this week and double him up with anyone else on this list.

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