Tyler Stephenson - Fantasy Baseball Draft Values

Welcome back RotoBallers! We had the first action of the MLB hot stove period yesterday when Tucker Barnhardt was traded from Cincinnati to the Detroit Tigers.

This trade should pave the way for more playing time for Cincinnati’s young backstop Tyler Stephenson. Stephenson is now bound to be a trendy late round pick at the catcher position for fantasy managers.

So, what kind of production can we expect from him in 2022? Let's dive in and take a look at his skill set and outlook for the 2022 fantasy baseball season.

Skills

Hit

According to the FanGraphs auction calculator tool, Stephenson was the ninth most valuable catcher in a 12-team mixed “old school” 5x5 rotisserie league in 2021, earning $8.0 on the year. His value was driven by his .286 batting average, making him the second most valuable catcher in that category last season.

Looking ahead to 2022, count on Stephenson coming close to a repeat of his batting average performance in 2021. His plate approach (67th percentile walk-rate, 89th percentile chase rate, and 83rd percentile whiff rate) are all indicative of a hitter that should produce an above-average batting average. While his .333 BABIP is likely to regress back toward .300, you should still be able to count on Stephenson returning positive value in the batting average category in 2022.

Power

Stephenson launched 10 home runs over 402 PAs in 2021, good for a rate of .025 per PA. Using baseball-reference.com’s simple Marcels projections for 2022, a .025 per PA home run rate puts Stephenson in the same power ballpark as players like Michael Brantley, Cesar Hernandez, Pavin Smith, and, funnily enough, Tucker Barnhardt.

Stephenson’s power profile is a mixed bag. Looking at his home run spray chart on Statcast, you can see that he flashed power to all fields in 2021, suggesting at least above-average raw power. Given his frame (6‘4“, 225 lbs.) lower half strength, and athleticism, it makes sense that Stephenson would have plus-power potential.

However, Stephenson’s max exit velocity in 2021 clocked in at 106.6 mph. This was actually below average among all MLB hitters last season. Max exit velocity is a good proxy for a hitter’s raw power potential. Similarly, Stephenson’s 5.4% barrel rate was well below the MLB average last year (24th percentile).

Speed

Stephenson has only stolen three bases in his professional career. Don’t draft him for speed in 2022.

Playing Time

Stephenson managed 402 plate appearances over 136 games last season, actually logging more time than teammate Tucker Barnhardt. With Barnhardt out of the picture, the Reds currently only have journeymen Mark Koloszvary, Chris Okey, and Chuckey Robinson as catching options in the upper levels at the moment. As all of these guys bat right-handed, I’d expect the Reds to acquire a left-handed hitting catcher this off-season.

Splits

Stephenson posted minimal handedness splits last season, posting a .813 OPS against lefties and a .788 OPS against righties. Outside of a really cold May (.581 OPS), he managed an OPS over .700 in every month of the season. Both of these splits suggest a great playing time floor for Stephenson in 2022.

Defense

Statcast has Stephenson’s framing ability in 2021 as 51st percentile, making him essentially league average by that measure. FanGraphs defensive metrics had him as a slightly below-average framer, but a slightly above-average defensive catcher overall. He only threw out 8 of 34 potential base-sealers last year (81% stolen base success rate against). However, he has above-average arm strength, so look for that number to improve.

There’s no reason why Stephenson can’t be the Reds primary defensive backstop in 2021.

Health

Stephenson has been remarkably healthy during his professional career. Last season, he only missed three days total. Two days were due to COVID-19 protocols, and the other day was due to a minor hamstring injury. Outside of that, you have to go all the way back to 2016 to find any significant injury issues (left wrist injury which required surgery).

Projection

Stephenson should see a significant bump in playing time this year, potentially reaching the elite 500 PA plateau. Only Salvador Perez, J.T. Realmuto, and Will Smith surpassed this mark in 2021.

Here’s my simple “Philthy Projection” expectation for Stephenson in 2022. To make Philthy Projections I take the per-PA skill from a number of publicly available projection systems (Baseball-Reference Marcel’s, FanGraphs Steamer and ZiPS), give them my own subjective adjustments, and add in a PA estimate:

This production should put Stephenson firmly at the top of the $0-$10 earnings tier, with an upside around $15. That would make him the 6th or 7th best fantasy catcher in 12-team mixed leagues for 2022.